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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Finally a post of his that I fully understand.

Thank you for posting  that.  I got it too.  HM doesn't say things just off the cuff so that has my attention for sure. 

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Very interested in today's EPS to see whether there are continued positive trends here. 

 

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

Very interested in today's EPS to see whether there are continued positive trends here. 

Blocking events are notorious for not being modeled well even in the med range. GEFS does decent up until d7 but falls apart with verification d7+

All the pieces required are there.... weak/split/warm SPV, no tendencies for a strong +AO/NAO, nino climo, etc. Will it happen? I do think blocking is on the way and will probably hang around for awhile. Models aren't going to do well with the front side of the change. If/when the AO goes negative in the short range or real time we'll probably start seeing a lot of good things going forward.

We really need it to happen this month though because it's pretty normal for the MA to fail during the front side of a blocking event. If it gets started too late the clock doesn't have enough hours left to stage a big comeback. 

 

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When he barks I feel a lot better. 
How is he barking. He basically called the late dec early jan a big bust

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In the end the Euro did well with the reversal date 

We get some downward action going and favoring our area, I imagine we will be in business. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
When he barks I feel a lot better. 

How is he barking. He basically called the late dec early jan a big bust

Correct, and at least HM is honest, as his call was not correct either, he did say if pressure continues on the SPV end of December would be nasty as hell. 

That SPV pressure did happen, but the cold did not happen.  I group HM's forecast possibly on the same thought processes as Isotherm' s as a degree. They mention the same players  I believe HM's other posts do indicate clearly he thinks winter is NOT over. 

l I take that the MJO / Start / tropcial forcing / Hadley cell interplay and relationship interfered on a otherwise potentially promising window in mid to late December outside of the early Dec lower Mid Atlantic Snow storm. 

 

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Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. 

That's what I was wondering. The look out west is ok. Why the ridge in the east?

 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65-1.png

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

No it still flips the Pacific around day 10. Beautiful epo ridge. But it pops a huge SE ridge as a system comes into the SW. That's unusual for a split flow with blocking.  If we get that pattern and a ridge sticks in the east anyways I'm throwing my hands up and saying we're cursed and it's the Debs who are picky about snows fault. They angered the snow gods and now they smite us. 

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4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65-1.png

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_65.png

You’d think given the look in the high latitudes that there would be a better height reflection in the east but who knows this year.  So incredibly frustrating.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. 

Its probably a combo of the EPAC ridge axis being a bit too far west, PAC jet undercutting, and NA ridging is a tad weak/too far north. Correctable with minor tweaks.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Amazing continuity run to run and from op to ensembles on gfs. The ridge in the east day 15 is "annoying" given the near perfect look with the epo, ao, nao but I have to suspect it's overdone or short lived given that look. Everything screams there should be a trough in the east there. 

My guess is the typical step down progression as the TPV gets displaced towards Hudson. Should fight off the "easy" ridge in the east. I can envision the cold boundary carving its way south with a series of shortwaves/fronts. Probably not enough to avoid west tracks until later in Jan though.  I also think SNE will be hit one or more times before we get a chance at something. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That's what I was wondering. The look out west is ok. Why the ridge in the east?

 

I'll be honest I'm not sure. There is a weak trough coming into the SW in the stj but with a split flow and -epo and nao the ridge response to that should be flat and muted. Not some monster SE ridge. 

Maybe someone else has a better take because I'm a bit perplexed why the gefs keeps putting a ridge there with that longwage pattern everywhere else. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

No it still flips the Pacific around day 10. Beautiful epo ridge. But it pops a huge SE ridge as a system comes into the SW. That's unusual for a split flow with blocking.  If we get that pattern and a ridge sticks in the east anyways I'm throwing my hands up and saying we're cursed and it's the Debs who are picky about snows fault. They angered the snow gods and now they smite us. 

Yep. Tough sledding this year for whatever reason. You would think we would have negative departures in regards to temps with the HL blocking. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is the typical step down progression as the TPV gets displaced towards Hudson. Should fight off the "easy" ridge in the east. I can envision the cold boundary carving its way south with a series of shortwaves/fronts. Probably not enough to avoid west tracks until later in Jan though.  I also think SNE will be hit one or more times before we get a chance at something. 

Yea fits climo. Like you have repeatedly reminded they often score before us. 

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5 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

You’d think given the look in the high latitudes that there would be a better height reflection in the east but who knows this year.  So incredibly frustrating.

The east ridge has been showing up on the last several GEFS runs

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea fits climo. Like you have repeatedly reminded they often score before us. 

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The east ridge has been showing up on the last several GEFS runs

My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

There could be a minority with monster ridges skewing the mean if the majority simply show normalish heights. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

I guess the GEFS look in the 10 to 16 isn't a shut out pattern?  Atleast not in January. I'm assuming in December it would of been.

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Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 
Call me at 9-14

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

When I saw this panel.....it doesnt look as warm as the gefs are depicting.  Also,  not a bad pressure panel for prime climo.

qRmBpdG.png

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag 

I'm just so ready to get rid of this shutout pattern. I'm not asking for perfection lol. Just a chance at a small event would be nice at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My guess is it's probably not a stable ridge as much as just AN heights on average as a series of fronts push through. Meaning we oscillate between ridges and troughs during the d10-15 but AN heights are more common during the period. Just a wag 

I think this is how to interpret it. I also think even on the means the AN heights will disappear on future runs if the look up top is legit, and NA blocking persists.

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm just so ready to get rid of this shutout pattern. I'm not asking for perfection lol. Just a chance at a small event would be nice at this point.

Yea man, me too. This period we've been stuck in really sucks. You know winter is dead when ALL discussion is about d10-15. lol

GEFS/GEPS are both showing a workable pattern d10+. The EPS is clearly the worst height pattern but at least it's been shifting a little better each run. An advisory event would do wonders for our sub. Just need to pass time for another week or so and pray things shuffle like the GEFS is showing. 

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

FV3 looking a little chilly...

AytcpDo.png

We need to put a wager on that look. How about  a DD gift card :-)   I still say when the dust settles there

should be some drool worthy looks on various HL panels. ( I pray )  

  

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This happening ups the ante if it happens. 

Some strat pros outside of just Judah ( thats for you Bob ) say there may indeed be a downward propagation.  ( of course too ealry still for location specifics ) 

 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

We need to put a wager on that look. How about  a DD gift card :-)   I still say when the dust settles there

should be some drool worthy looks on various HL panels. ( I pray )  

  

Looks like there a decent sized camp in the ens that displace the TPV similar to the Fv3. I like the mechanism on the Fv3 with the EPO ridge extending poleward along with the NAO ridge extending westward and creating a legit block. 

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