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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly and FWIW... 12z gefs is pretty active with winter wx here d10-15. One of the better runs but all we can do is wait a week and pray things hold together and another monkey wrench doesn't get tossed our way. 

Agreed, but as I know by and large you agree,  I think we need to sign a waiver when looking beyond 240 for the rest of the year. 

Too much time/energy is "wasted" of late, as it really just mucks up the joint.  I love it as much as any, but i think one needs to take a look between 7-10 days at all things you deem holy with weather maps/guidance, and make your own assumptions/guesses accordingly (unless one thinks its "real good") then share away so we can troll the heck outta said person.

Just a playful thought....lol

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Geps looks very similar to gefs day 10-15

GEPS puts up the EPO ridge by d9. If/when the EPO ridge builds we are probably out of the shutout pattern. Can't happen soon enough. 

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Euro d9 moving in the direction of where the GEFS/GEPS are going. I might let a little optimism back in if the EPS can make another move towards greener pastures. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro d9 moving in the direction of where the GEFS/GEPS are going. I might let a little optimism back in if the EPS can make another move towards greener pastures. 

Seeing a combination of the Euro corecting for the MJO and the manifestation of the building Greenland block, along with the effects of the start event being seen or modeled correctly, the EPS should look better today and in the coming days.  

If we get the cold to continue to build in Central Canada near Hudson Bay,  and hopefully get some undercutting / split flow, it will be money time.  

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Euro bringing the cold into the northern plains too at the end of the run.  -20 2m temps into northern MN.        

Amazing how quick things can change when the pac jet gets deflected away from a direct shot into the west. Euro op was a very good run imo

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

We're losing the GEFS. Certainly not a cold look at the end.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65-1.png

 

Yep a cross polar flow straight into the central US in mid January certainly is warm. If u buy those temp anomalies you posted based on that 500 map then I have oceanfront property for sale in Nebraska.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Amazing how quick things can change when the pac jet gets deflected away from a direct shot into the west. Euro op was a very good run imo

Really encouraging run today and it’d argue we flip the switch from shutout to trackable.  Hopefully EPS continues the trend...we’ll know soon.  

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow in the deep south next Saturday(the 12th)(Miss,alabama,etc)

I hear if it snows in Cuba first, it’s sets the stage for us to get cold smoked later. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS looking even better with agreement on the TPV making a trip south. Some nice gradient patterns in the mix here...

f360.gif

We need that SE ridge to maintain a little flex and not get completely crushed then yes this has all the markings of an epic gradient or sw flow event pattern setting up.

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I hear if it snows in Cuba first, it’s sets the stage for us to get cold smoked later. :lol:

My brother just left for Cuba very early this morning. It would be hilarious if he ended up seeing snow there.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Really encouraging run today and it’d argue we flip the switch from shutout to trackable.  Hopefully EPS continues the trend...we’ll know soon.  

Bob's inner Deb may be going away for awhile.

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has snow in the deep south next Saturday(the 12th)(Miss,alabama,etc)

It's not a bad gradient/wave type of pattern. Reminds me a little of Jan/Feb 2014. More importantly... the pac jet is cut off by d8-9. D10 has split flow...

4mqbGom.jpg

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@poolz1 signs are growing regarding more impact in the long term from the ongoing SSWE

 

 

little recovery and additional warming coming into view, not certain, but possible.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not a bad gradient/wave type of pattern. Reminds me a little of Jan/Feb 2014. More importantly... the pac jet is cut off by d8-9. D10 has split flow...

4mqbGom.jpg

Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob.  What is the mechanism that produces that split flow?  By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around?

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Bob's inner Deb may be going away for awhile.

So your saying he's swapping Debbie for a weenie?

 

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob.  What is the mechanism that produces that split flow?  By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around?

I'm not Bob, but thats a reflection of NJ and STJ meeting in the midwest and one supplies cold...other supplies moisture.  I'll let you figure out which :).

 

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Gonna ask a dumb question here, Bob.  What is the mechanism that produces that split flow?  By that, I mean, what feature over the intermountain West are the 200 HPA winds flowing around?

The upper level ridge building along the northern Rockies/west coast of Canada and the closed ULL off the coast of San Diego are spitting the flow. 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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@frd I saw that post by Simon Lee.  Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?).  Reversal all the way down....  Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward.  Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern.  It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo.  

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@frd I saw that post by Simon Lee.  Thats the best look by the gfs for downward propagation yet (I think?).  Reversal all the way down....  Going to be some wild looks but I really think the meat and potatoes will be felt early Feb onward.  Not saying Jan cant get some excitement going but we should hit a pretty anomalous pattern once the strat effects are full absorbed into the pattern.  It will be interesting to watch this all unfold during prime climo.  

I dont think the EPS will show much improvement  today, because I am hearing after the 15 th it goes back to zonal, but Bob can address that. Not sure whether that statement is accurate.    

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1 minute ago, frd said:

I dont think the EPS will show much improvement  today, because I am hearing after the 15 th it goes back to zonal, but Bob can address that. Not sure whether that statement is accurate.    

It's certainly not much better through 318.  Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

It's certainly not much better through 318.  Almost completely opposite of the GEFS. +EPO, +NAO, -PNA. 

Thanks,  that what I thought, the battle rages.  

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