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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not a bad gradient/wave type of pattern. Reminds me a little of Jan/Feb 2014. More importantly... the pac jet is cut off by d8-9. D10 has split flow...

4mqbGom.jpg

That look is not bad... not bad at all

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i am sure you will say week 3 looks like a weenies dream tomorrow evening

If that's how it looks I'll say it but I stopped trusting the weeklies completely recently. Week 3 performance has been terrible and that's the highest skill beyond regular ens. 

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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The upper level ridge building along the northern Rockies/west coast of Canada and the closed ULL off the coast of San Diego are spitting the flow. 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

I see now.   Thanks for that explanation and chart that illustrates it perfectly.

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A week ago the EPS had a great look. It busted. It can bust. I don't know if it will here but it's been awful at range. The heights are still rising in the NW day 15 but it sucks waiting a week longer then the gfs to get things started. 

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Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want.  I’m well aware of why it could be wrong but you’d expect to start seeing it look better...not get worse.  We’ll see.

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2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want.  I’m well aware of why it could be wrong but you’d expect to start seeing it look better...not get worse.  We’ll see.

LeBatard reference:

You don't get the show.

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4 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want.  

You're new at this game I see

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

EPS is basically saying that the SSW and MJO have nothing to do with this disaster of winter

Could very well be right.  I’d weigh it more than the GEFS that’s for sure.

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If we can get that strong west based -NAO to develop we will get some cold air into the area. But that appears to be a big if. We have basically had a neutral NAO for a month. And when it has dipped negative it has been east based and worthless for us. With a crappy PAC it might be one of the only things that can save us.

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The longest I have seen, and I am really old, is January 16th 1985. It turned cold and snowy. Was living in High Point NC at the time. Arctic outbreak gave us all time record low of -8F on or about the 21st. Just saying.

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A week ago the EPS had a great look. It busted. It can bust. I don't know if it will here but it's been awful at range. The heights are still rising in the NW day 15 but it sucks waiting a week longer then the gfs to get things started. 

 

@psuhoffman, Wonder if the EPS is simply incorrect due to the continued robust SSWE  / split , MJO interplay, etc. I am impling the event is taking on an even grander scale of cause and effect wi the MJO. Not sure whether @Isotherm can chime in.  A few weeks ago the event was not certain, now it is happening and further warming is forecasted . What does this do? You have to think - casuse and effect. Like the dude from the Matrix reloaded ...

Honestly those looking for the SSWE to be shown in the modeling world correctly, well frankly maybe it is still too early. Some models are sniffing it out but some are not. 

And yes, I would like the so called most accurate model by physics and machine learning to show the colder solution, in this case I am very puzzled. 

What a mess right now. Been like this for days so far. 

Wonder if the EPS simply turns on a dime and we get the so called pattern change we envision . or if this get pushed down the line to Feb . 

 

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33 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Just seems silly to me to toss a superior model because it doesn’t show what we want.  I’m well aware of why it could be wrong but you’d expect to start seeing it look better...not get worse.  We’ll see.

U could also argue u would expect the gefs and geps to start looking worse.

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29 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Could very well be right.  I’d weigh it more than the GEFS that’s for sure.

What's your scoop new guy who just joined in November from Central PA?

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We got a lot more snow when the strat PV was a cold consolidated beast

OK, OK, it's my fault. Bristow told me that buying a snow blower would be the kiss of death but I went out and did it anyway. So for the sake of everyone on this thread, I will be returning the snow blower tonight. We should be seeing better results starting with the 0z runs overnight, especially with the EPS!

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

OK, OK, it's my fault. Bristow told me that buying a snow blower would be the kiss of death but I went out and did it anyway. So for the sake of everyone on this thread, I will be returning the snow blower tonight. We should be seeing better results starting with the 0z runs overnight, especially with the EPS!

Don't do it.

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

OK, OK, it's my fault. Bristow told me that buying a snow blower would be the kiss of death but I went out and did it anyway. So for the sake of everyone on this thread, I will be returning the snow blower tonight. We should be seeing better results starting with the 0z runs overnight, especially with the EPS!

Good man. Take one for the team and the cause.  If it snows and you need help shoveling just let me know I’ll be upstairs asleep. 

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Good man. Take one for the team and the cause.  If it snows and you need help shoveling just let me know I’ll be upstairs asleep. 

What about your brand new Jeep??!

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Good man. Take one for the team and the cause.  If it snows and you need help shoveling just let me know I’ll be upstairs asleep. 

That's why I came back to this forum. Priceless...

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

What about your brand new Jeep??!

The council of elders determined it’s not a factor so Stormtracker said I could keep it.  

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2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Every time it looks like the ridging wants to build in AK, it just gets beaten down.  Quite the relentless PAC on the EPS.  The Euro OP blinked first...maybe EPS will be next (at 00z?)

I'm going with that thought regarding the EPS - sometimes the Euro does that (lag from the op to the ens). Maybe because of the changes/transition going on?

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