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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

btw...every rain storm we have had in DEC was once modeled as snow 9-10 days out

The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 

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The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 
Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 

Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now

We get a heartbreak every time the Euro comes out.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
The worse part is none of them were even close. For our area to get good snow in a season we need a lot of chances. We've only had one chance so far. I'd feel better if we were sucking but multiple events found a way to miss. 

Weve only had one true heartbreak....usually we have 3-4 by now

Yep, and many "heartbreaks" still drop an inch or 2. One of those would be a HECS this winter.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, and many "heartbreaks" still drop an inch or 2. One of those would be a HECS this winter.

I’m honestly more amazed at the lack of snow not only here but in NE outside of the northern tier.  I’m used to DC failing but pretty amazing to see them failing too so far.  I’m happy to see there’s a good signal for a significant event up there next week...could signal the real start of winter for the east.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous 

 

My Vort 101 handbook says a quadruple closed 500H low passing south of us should be snow in January.  

ETA:  Shoot, the next chapter is titled “When the PAC vomits on your pattern” and explains the rest...

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It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous 
gfs_z500a_us_10.png&key=57c9909c154afee1b432ff315186d2d3a127a6d1e9ddb23bf41c8df9a663fc23
That's a heartbreak....look at 850 line lol
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4 hours ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

You got it exactly. Right at 10k wrong at surface vodka that never poured.

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous 
gfs_z500a_us_10.png&key=57c9909c154afee1b432ff315186d2d3a127a6d1e9ddb23bf41c8df9a663fc23

That's a heartbreak....look at 850 line lol

All the way in NNE. For goodness sakes this is awful. Most winters this bad have weeks of 50s and 60s (like 01-02 or early 06-07), but instead we've just been lukewarm.

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

i jokingly compared this winter to 01-02 a few weeks ago--about the broken promises and how cold vodka was always on the way but it never came...till 02-03. JB said he nailed that winter...at the upper levels

Ya know what that means? Buckle up for 2019-20! :D (I've already half-punted to then based on our history alone...below average winters tend to come in threes'! There were fewer times where it was just two below average winters in a row)

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's Jan 5th and this is a rainstorm. It's insulting, ridiculous, and preposterous 

gfs_z500a_us_10.png

So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well?

We need things to line up to get a decent winter pattern.  We can survive just a mediocre-bad pacific if we have a -NAO.  We can survive a poor NAO if we have a great PAC.  But if either of those is horrendously bad — like the current state of the PAC — then we can close the blinds for a while.  In fact, a horrendous PAC is probably the worst thing we could have.  It’s a bigger killer than a +NAO.  

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26 minutes ago, Fozz said:

All the way in NNE. For goodness sakes this is awful. Most winters this bad have weeks of 50s and 60s (like 01-02 or early 06-07), but instead we've just been lukewarm.

Don't worry, 60s on the way next week 

gfs_T2m_neus_24.png

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36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So just to clarify: Basically, anything that looks conducive in a LR winter forecast can be crapped on by the pac...and said bad pac can't really be predicted all that well?

When you say lr winter forecast are you asking about the ones that come out in the fall or d8-15?

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Maine is the place to be  every winter

They never lose

They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated.

Especially northern maine

I wouldn't mind living over there

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't worry, 60s on the way next week 

gfs_T2m_neus_24.png

I'll take it if we only have to deal with one week of this crap before getting into a good pattern. Otherwise, I'm probably logging off for a little while.

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5 weeks til pitchers and catchers report, days getting longer, sun angle, Memorial Day.....think warm thoughts. Weather always turns BN temps when we want warmth. Hopefully we hit 70 next week. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When you say lr winter forecast are you asking about the ones that come out in the fall or d8-15?

In the fall...but also the weeklies as well. Just wondering what could've been seen for this winter to predict this.

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We can prob all agree that the 0z gfs is hideous start to finish. If the gefs caves to the eps i'll be taking a break from this stuff. Lol

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This mild winter is great on the heating bill I hope this continues. Oil demand is lower and this is great on gasoline prices. Thinking a nice family outing Jan 20th or right after to DC. This will be a great early year for cherry blossoms and daffodils I'm certain. 

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You know its inevitable. When 70 degree days repeatedly start showing up in early March on the Gefs GEPS and eps with 15 day leads we wont see them verify until June. We'll be chasing unicorns again. Then it will go from 40s straight to upper 90s right thru Oct

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Honestly if we torch this month with 60s and 70s, then I won't even mind a chilly March and April. Kinda like last year which had a chilly start to spring, but that was after many days of 70s in February, so I can live with it.

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I'm fine honestly if this winter craps the bed for us. It happens. Wont be the first wont be the last. But if Boston and NYC get 80"+ somehow while DC bwi and phl get virtually shutout I'm trading this hobby for origami, crochet, and brass rubbing not necessarily in that order.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In the fall...but also the weeklies as well

Weeklies are an extension of the regular eps so if the eps is wrong the weeklies are usually wronger. As far as the seasonal forecasts go... it's a very tough combo of skill and luck. I like reading them but i've seen so many bust over the years. Weather just being weather will remain a mysterious puzzle until long after i'm gone. 

 

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We can prob all agree that the 0z gfs is hideous start to finish. If the gefs caves to the eps i'll be taking a break from this stuff. Lol

Gefs is starting to slow the progression. Likely the start of a move towards a compromise timing with the slower EPS. 

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