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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Think about what this place would have been like if the Dec 2009 storm had missed. There was no significant snow until the end of Jan after that if I remember correctly.
Just look at bob
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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Yep.  I read @40/70 Benchmark posting on the MEI and the weakish El Nino ( Modaki ) over a month ago. Will have to see how Ray's progression develops over time. He did well with December, actually very good I think.   

I know Ray stated that a weak(er) El Nino puts a lower ceiling on us here ( Mid Atlantic ) but about a month ago he still felt confident that we do OK.

A lot has changed since then with the global NH weather drivers.

I have not reviewed any of his latest updates, and maybe he did not provide an update, I mean it is silly to think it is only Jan 3 rd.    

I know Ray put a lot of effort into his seasonal. I admire his work and that of Tom's as well. 

 

Yeah, I too read/follow them (and tip as best i can parse through his verbal wizardry).  

I wish some of the top dogs down here would put more winter forecasts out.  IMO This forum has the talent.

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If we had a legit Nino, I doubt the MJO would be "overwhelming" the pattern.
Ill be darned if a rainstorm over the Indian Ocean is going to ruin our winter
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Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps.  Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns.  

It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal.  

In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific.

I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October.

 

Kevin

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Think about what this place would have been like if the Dec 2009 storm had missed. There was no significant snow until the end of Jan after that if I remember correctly.

There was a clipper on 1/8 that dropped 1-2" and then really nothing until 1/30-2/10 and after that snowfall was pretty much done. Epic winter all in about 3 weeks, hopefully our benchmark of right around 1/20 this year works out.

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4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps.  Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns.  

It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal.  

In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific.

I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October.

 

Kevin

Maybe but remember last year we had an advisory event on december 8-9 and the end of december through beginning of january we had like 13 days straight of below freezing temps. 

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I cant remember a case where the MJO was solely responsible for shutting down winter lol. I mean, yes it has influence but it is only one pattern driver. I guess i'm missing something.

Hello El Nino... where are you?? I think that's half the problem- this Nino is really a Nada at this point. CPC/NCEP still has ENSO neutral with an El Nino 'watch' in effect.

Oh I hear you but with so much attention on the MJO this year, this place will be a dumpster fire with panic if we have to endure cycles through the warmer phases again.  Although who knows, by then we could be in a Nino state vs ‘watch’ so its impact could be muted.  This is the first year I’ve paid closer attention to MJO, SOI, ENSO, etc...fascinating to learn about but confusing and frustrating all at the same time. :)

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, I too read/follow them (and tip as best i can parse through his verbal wizardry).  

I wish some of the top dogs down here would put more winter forecasts out.  IMO This forum has the talent.

I never thought of that, I mean the top dogs, the closest I follow is Allen Huffman. 

Tip makes HM's  wordage easy to read :-) 

Nah, they both require decoders ha ha , they are both wizards !  

DT from a recent Judah post ( morale of story to me is that I am cool with Europe getting nailed first )

from a few minutes ago on Judah' s feed 

  1.  
  2. New conversation
    •  
      Replying to @judah47

      JUDAH this PV split unlike the last one appeats to imnpacts Eurasia side of the northern Hemisphere first. It is posble that QBO phase in dec 2018/ Jan20-19 whcih si soooo different from last winter... is favoring the Eurasia side first for the PV impacts/

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

You can start to see the flip to a favorable PAC by the 11th on the 12z GEFS.  By the 14th, we have this:

B3516DE4-F754-4F42-A84A-F33183C29A47.png

I like the reds over AK and Greenland but don’t we want blues over us?

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Just now, jaydreb said:

I like the reds over AK and Greenland but don’t we want blues over us?

One thing at a time lol.  Give me a favorable PAC and that look over GL and lets go from there for the time being.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree with all those points... the first post from Jason kind of contradicts...he says MJO in 7/8 interferes with a -AO when it is strong amp but then in the next sentence says when the MJO amplitude is weak it is "less cold".   Not sure if it was a typo or I am missing something. 

Not all interference is destructive. Constructive interference means it interferes to make it larger in a positive way.....so MJO 7/8 strong would enhance the existing -AO.

 

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You can start to see the flip to a favorable PAC by the 11th on the 12z GEFS.  By the 14th, we have this:

B3516DE4-F754-4F42-A84A-F33183C29A47.png

I know we talked yesterday about the absence of a "blue" trough over the east with that look up top.  Could it be that some members still have the same pattern we are in and are skewing the mean?  That's a pretty good great look, ignoring the colors over us lol.

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You can start to see the flip to a favorable PAC by the 11th on the 12z GEFS.  By the 14th, we have this:

 

The red flag on the GEFS the last few runs is that even with a workable 500mb pattern it's still pretty warm at the surface and mids. I see that as a sign that a north or west track of any storm will continue indefinitely. 

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25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I cant remember a case where the MJO was solely responsible for shutting down winter lol. I mean, yes it has influence but it is only one pattern driver. I guess i'm missing something.

Hello El Nino... where are you?? I think that's half the problem- this Nino is really a Nada at this point. CPC/NCEP still has ENSO neutral with an El Nino 'watch' in effect.

It isn't solely responsible... if it was a weak wave it probably wouldn't be wrecking the pattern to this extent.  And there is a causality here we can't pin down.  Is the SSWE causing the MJO?  Some other factor?  Why is the MJO behaving in a way completely incongruous with the SST and analogs.  We just don't know for sure.  

But if there is SRONG tropical forcing either from a nino OR an MJO wave that is going to be the dominant influence on the Pacific pattern which in turn impacts our pattern downstream unless there is some pretty major dominant other factor to offset it.   If we had some 3std west based NAO block perhaps we could offset what's going on in the pacific, but with a pretty ambiguous progressive pattern elsewhere that kind of record tropical forcing is going to boss the pattern. 

There is some chicken/egg with the SOI and MJO since a strong MJO wave in phase 4-6 will cause the SOI to rise because convection in that location favors low pressure there which would be a positive SOI.  But that is also why we want the SOI negative.  Even getting the SOI negative though won't help us if the forcing in the nino space is too far east and pumps the ridge into central and eastern north america instead of the EPO/PNA domain.  Yea this gets complicated which is why its almost impossible to forecast it all at range.

But there is a reason by far the number one thing long range forecasters look at first is the tropical forcing.  Yea they look at other things like qbo and pdo and such but if the enso is an awful match usually even if the other factors are good they toss that year as an analog because the tropics drive the bus.  This year is going wrong because the tropical forcing has been all wrong compared to what we expected given the SST.  The forcing does NOT match a modoki or even an east based nino.  NCEP still expects the atmosphere to couple with the sst but it better happen soon.  

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

IF...the soi goes negative into nino territory AND the MJO wave reduces in amplitude (likely since a -soi correlates with a weaker MJO) than another tour into the "warm" phases of the MJO might not have much impact.  Some of the warm phases aren't even "warm" in a nino.  
I am definitely still no expert with the MJO, and its really complicated with different significance correlations depending on the month and phase and other telleconnections, AND the lag times can change also with those variables...but what has been happen has been pretty much our worst nightmare...an SOI spike coinciding with a record strong MJO wave stalling in warm phases for record length of time.  Anything would be preferable to that.  But if we get a decent amplitude into 8 before the MJO amplitude wanes and then it goes into the COD before a weak wave emerges in warm phases...that might actually favor a cold pattern establishing and then the MJO being muted enough not to impact it.  MAG over in the central PA thread had some data on the MJO in the nino analogs we looked at where flips happened and some of the best winter weather happened with a weaker MJO wave in the warm phases AFTER a trip through the cold phases.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The red flag on the GEFS the last few runs is that even with a workable 500mb pattern it's still pretty warm at the surface and mids. I see that as a sign that a north or west track of any storm will continue indefinitely. 

warm but peak climo so perhaps we will have a shot at something.   I was remotely excited about the op hr 264-288 with that 1046 high....and low in the SW....only to have it fall apart by 300 hr.  Op run for sure but not an unexpected progression from what we have seen so far.  Some years its just tough slog through the mud

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 5 day mean 850 temp panel for days 10-14 is a red flag imo

 

What I don’t understand is that with a favorable PAC and GL blocking, its still warm.  It’s not like there’s a giant SE ridge.  Is it just completely off in the PAC or something?  

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What I don’t understand is that with a favorable PAC and GL blocking, its still warm.  It’s not like there’s a giant SE ridge.  Is it just completely off in the PAC or something?  

The AN heights in the east are a sign that deep cold never makes it here and we'll be on the warm side of any storm that tracks through. That's my take on it. EPS is much more obvious with the h5 looks its spitting out. 

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45 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Very deep and so true. Emotional attachment is deadly with this hobby. I am going to sit back and see what the afternoon EPS shows and take it from there. I am tired mentally, really.  

There is only so much to look at, and folks are frustrated. Time for fresh air and use the DD gift card.

Still feel in some form or fashion things will change, they always do in the weather.  

But, I keep thinking though about Don S post and psu's post too, about the lack of coupling with the Nino.

Very strange, maybe a warning signal....now I will always fear Decembers in weak Ninos that have a highly positive averaged SOI value. 

 

I am not about to make you feel any better...IF the atmosphere fails to couple and we remain in "neutral" conditions the rest of the winter, (and before the site shut down the MEI was in neutral territory also) then the best analogs to this year simply using enso would become 1985-6, 1989-90, 1996-7, 2001-2, and 2012-13.  Not an inspiring list at all...

So better hope the SOI tanks and the atmosphere couples soon....

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Are you talking about the miss to the south d11 or the d15 rain storm?

Not the surface looking at 500mb. You know better. I admire your sarcasm. :clap:

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51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am no MJO expert, but never have I ever heard anyone say the pattern is crap because of the MJO, or it cant be cold/snowy because an MJO pulse in in the warm phases. It used to be something we only ever heard about when the pattern sucked and we needed a reason. Oh. Like now.

IMO they talked about "it" but just not in the same way we do now.  Understanding of the MJO is a fairly recent thing.  But going back we knew and would talk about the longwave pattern in the Pacific and how we needed a trough or ridge here or there to change, or get the Jet to relax...things like that.  The issue was there wasn't as much understanding of the causality.  Saying the "MJO" is simply cutting to the causality behind those unfavorable longwave configurations that lead to a crap pattern downstream here.  Most of the heat added to the atmosphere in the mid latitudes that drive the patterns are coming from the tropical oceans.   We are starting to get some understanding of the correlations and how adding heat/energy in a specific location translates to impacting the longwave pattern at the mid latitudes.  But its tricky and other factors still can influence and tweak the pattern in ways that matter to us and the amount of heat added determines how dominant that one factor is... and we can't really predict the MJO past a few days very well anyways...so I am not saying the MJO is some cure all for weather forecasting... but where the tropical forcing is and how strong definitely is one of the most significant impacts on our weather.  

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not the surface looking at 500mb. You know better. I admire your sarcasm. :clap:

Lol- not really sarcasm. I see the 12z FV3 as an unabated continuation of bad storm tracks and limited cold air. 

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57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If we had a legit Nino, I doubt the MJO would be "overwhelming" the pattern.

Hate to be repetitive but you are right because in a nino the MJO is typically muted... and the two are linked...a nino places warm waters (which usually translates to convection and heat release) in places that do not favor strong MJO waves through phases 3-6.  That is why this mjo event was a record for a month with a nino sst.  

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One thing that I ignored back in Oct/Nov was the PDO. Nino's generally have a +PDO. Back in Nov the PDO looked terrible with very warm waters around and off the coast of Japan. That was probably a decent hint that the Pac wouldn't be friendly but I ignored it. Looking back, ignoring the PDO was a mistake on my park. 

anomnight.11.15.2018.gif

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