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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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50 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Now I know we are all looking for -EPO, -NAO -AO +PNA MJO SSWE etc. but what about the possibility that the warming ocean temps world wide is overwhelming the cooling produced by the melting polar ice caps.  Yes, I am trying to link the possibility that whatever you want to call it global warming or climate change is at work here in regards to our weather patterns.  

It would appear to me that the overall warmth of the ocean especially the Pacific and the Atlantic is overwhelming the whole system with warmth and the lag time to get winter is increasing over time relative to normal.  

In North America for instance the continental arctic air is overwhelmed by the warming of the pacific for instance causing a storm track that just favors more regularly warmth flooding in from the Pacific.

I mean 15" snowstorms along the East Coast Richmond to NYC are becoming like tracking hurricanes up the east coast in August to October.

 

Kevin

Not dismissing your theory that the current increase in warmth could cause additional lag times in winter...(fits the pattern the last few years) BUT those storms you mention were historically rare anyways...only a recent glut of them spoiled and skewed our perspective of HECS type storms.  

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38 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Not all interference is destructive. Constructive interference means it interferes to make it larger in a positive way.....so MJO 7/8 strong would enhance the existing -AO.

 

lol just re-read it and get it now... thanks.  Totally missed that.  

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40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The red flag on the GEFS the last few runs is that even with a workable 500mb pattern it's still pretty warm at the surface and mids. I see that as a sign that a north or west track of any storm will continue indefinitely. 

 

32 minutes ago, nj2va said:

What I don’t understand is that with a favorable PAC and GL blocking, its still warm.  It’s not like there’s a giant SE ridge.  Is it just completely off in the PAC or something?  

There is warmth everywhere though...the whole northern Hemisphere is like 70% higher heights at times.  And our area specifically has been just wrecked.  I think it will take a while.  In examples where we were coming from a totally wrecked NAM temperature pattern and a favorable longwave pattern develops it takes a week or so to transition.  If that look were to lock in the flow into the CONUS from the pole would slowly build cold and eventually we would be ok.  But it's not going to happen all of a sudden and history suggests the pattern change helps north and midwest first before us so we need the changes soon because even if the pattern flips around Jan 20 it will likely be Feb before we see the benefits.   

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

There is warmth everywhere though...the whole northern Hemisphere is like 70% higher heights at times.  And our area specifically has been just wrecked.  I think it will take a while.  In examples where we were coming from a totally wrecked NAM temperature pattern and a favorable longwave pattern develops it takes a week or so to transition.  If that look were to lock in the flow into the CONUS from the pole would slowly build cold and eventually we would be ok.  But it's not going to happen all of a sudden and history suggests the pattern change helps north and midwest first before us so we need the changes soon because even if the pattern flips around Jan 20 it will likely be Feb before we see the benefits.   

and THIS is why the voodo option/wildcard  is what I was hoping for.  I think Kevin is onto something that as we are no doubt warming, and couple that with an arctic that is struggling to manufacture enough cold, we are stuck in the middle and too far south to be in play in ANY less than stellar setup.  I'm looking for some way to get it cold up north.  Understand that this is not me hammering at SSW, it is me trying to go full weenie and find the lacking cold we need to get some winter going.  

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Just need to get through ANOTHER bad week (next week).  Looking at GEFS 500 at 216 you can see the blue poleward blob start its progression south into central canada. 

And even thought i'm not letting myself by into anything beyond 240, I liked what i saw while peeking out beyond through the crack in the window.  

Looking at the GEFS, it appears that all you 1/15-1/20 flippers may have a shot at being correct. Keep the SOI in neg territory and even if the MJO is dying in 8, like PSU suggested, it may be enough of a correction for us to be in the game.

 

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Just need to get through ANOTHER bad week (next week).  Looking at GEFS 500 at 216 you can see the blue poleward blob start its progression south into central canada. 

And even thought i'm not letting myself by into anything beyond 240, I liked what i saw while peeking out beyond through the crack in the window.  

Looking at the GEFS, it appears that all you 1/15-1/20 flippers may have a shot at being correct. Keep the SOI in neg territory and even if the MJO is dying in 8, like PSU suggested, it may be enough of a correction for us to be in the game.

 

We have had so much bad news I feel we are due for something positive.  But even seemingly positive moves by the indices are often thwarted by follow up dumpster fires so cant be too enthused just yet.  EPS today is important 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The real irony starts when it does re-emerge in the warm phases but we turn cold and snowy. A lot of long rangers are digging deep for reasons as to why winter is non-existent in the east. It would be pretty funny if the MJO cycle repeats but winter comes anyway. lol

That’s entirely possible if it’s weak magnitude.  A weak 4-5-6 run through in February if the SOI has been persistently negative for several weeks probably wouldn’t result in a pattern this bad 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Geps agrees with gefs in Pacific pattern flip to -epo day 10 but also agrees on torching the eastern US days 10-15 anyways. 

well that gets us close to 20 Jan.  maybe MLK wont feature a thaw since we are entirely melted by that point

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Question on the MJO folks.  Does it ever take a straight dive across the COD from say 4 to 8 (or even 1) like we see it projected to go from 8 back across the COD the other way.

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At least it's not out of the realm of possibility for the euro d9-10 shortwave to work out in some fashion. The northern low near the lakes crushes the mids but there's cold around and a half decent shortwave to work with. You have to get really creative with the maps to see potential but it's a sliver of hope in a raging hopeless pattern. 

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We have had so much bad news I feel we are due for something positive.  But even seemingly positive moves by the indices are often thwarted by follow up dumpster fires so cant be too enthused just yet.  EPS today is important 

Most hugest run since 0z.

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least it's not out of the realm of possibility for the euro d9-10 shortwave to work out in some fashion. The northern low near the lakes crushes the mids but there's cold around and a half decent shortwave to work with. You have to get really creative with the maps to see potential but it's a sliver of hope in a raging hopeless pattern. 

every day 9-10 potential has trended the wrong way by day 8 since Dec 15. See you in the panic room

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

every day 9-10 potential has trended the wrong way by day 8 since Dec 15. See you in the panic room

The good thing is this one already sucks at d9-10 so maybe it will trend better... nah, panic room it is

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately this is worse... 2015 was VERY similar WRT SST but by now the atmosphere was better coupled with a weak nino.  This year was late developing AND has yet to have any atmospheric response.  That should change but if it doesn't we could be in trouble.  Furthermore, we remember January 2015 as "awful" but it wasn't actually that bad.  We had a pretty good clipper the first week.  Then the second was really warm and awful...but the last 10 days were cold and we had some snow...we just complained constantly because we were getting 1-2" snows while New England was getting 1-2 feet.  

Honestly there aren't many good analogs to a year with THIS awful a pattern early.  There are similar years and some did flip but without good SST matches...but perhaps finding years with a similar MJO progression and neutral SST would be a better analog?  But I haven't done that research.  But with this MJO being a record event it would make sense that the pattern was even worse.  But even the "bad" start nino years there was SOME cold and snow.  A clipper here, a front end 1" there...a couple days with cold.  It's hard to find any where it was just a total barren wasteland for a month like this... 

2006-07, another weak Nino, was pretty wretched after a chilly start during the first week of December.  Widespread warmth that had people in early January in Boston noting that trees were blossoming and folks in Ohio complaining about insects. 

The guy from NM was hitting the '06-'07 analog pretty hard throughout the fall in Chuck's ENSO thread on the main forum.  That terrible month + from early-Dec through mid-Jan was warmer than this stretch has been, but the pattern flipped around 1/17 when an EPO ridge built north through Alaska.  That ridge started showing up about 12-14 days prior to onset on the ensembles.

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I know that winter isn't remembered fondly by the metro area crew, but my yard hit snow climo with the latest of late saves: the VD storm that dropped 3" of snow here followed by 3" of sleet, a 6" dump on 2/25, another WSW event in early March (a rain to snow event) and another 6" on 3/17 after 3 days of temps in the mid- to upper 70's.  The whole month of February was great for consistent cold and storm chances.  No reason to think we couldn't do it again.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks 

It must be so bad that it crashed weathermodels.com

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks 

I have seen better. :whistle: 

Let's see if we can get a late save with the final 2 days coming up shortly.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Waiting on someone to tell is how awful the EPS looks 

Through hr312 it's still hideous but not as hideous as 0z. Slightly better in the EPO/NAO domains but overall we're still fooked. 

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4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I know the guy from NM was hitting the '06-'07 analog pretty hard throughout the fall in Chuck's ENSO thread on the main forum.  That terrible month + from early-Dec through mid-Jan was warmer than this stretch has been, but the pattern flipped around 1/17 when an EPO ridge built north through Alaska.  That ridge started showing up about 12-14 days prior to onset on the ensembles

All throughout the fall, seeing that always concerned me...because I was like "Nooo...." lol (although, as you said, February wasn't completely crappy)

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3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Same theme.  Awful pac.  Close to something interesting day 9-10 but otherwise meh-tastic

I've punted the next 2-3 weeks. Im looking for signs the long range pattern change for post Jan 20 into Feb from the weeklies is still progressing. Stop expecting something to look good in the next 2 weeks given the absolutely awful spot were in. 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

EPS is trying. Getting better up top. At least we have normal h5 heights over us at day 15 lol.

Is the epo ridge going day 15?  If it isn't the wheels have fell off the weeklies AGAIN because by now the ridge should be getting established there if it hasn't pushed back the progression again. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Is the epo ridge going day 15?  If it isn't the wheels have fell off the weeklies AGAIN because by now the ridge should be getting established there if it hasn't pushed back the progression again. 

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Its pretty close to the weeklies look for the same date. Better up top, not quite as good in the EPO region. Heading that way though. We rollin!

 

eta- the ridge N of Hawaii really weakens/flattens at the end of the run.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its pretty close to the weeklies look for the same date. Better up top, not quite as good in the EPO region. Heading that way though. We rollin!

What is your guess regarding what the weeklies will show?   Eratic changes or hold the course ?? 

My neighbor is having pigs in a blanket and brews to celebrate Thursday night's  weeklies release

two minutes online checking models three hours drinking, sounds just what the doctor ordered.   

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