January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

The weeklies 45 day snowfall map is NSFW.  

Fringed.  

Vermont and Maine get more.  Lame. Punt.  Pass. Next. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, PCT_ATC said:

THIS!!!!

We are a passionate bunch of SOBs.  By tomorrow we will take a step back...book it.  Showme will say this at 5 am when he checks in

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We are a passionate bunch of SOBs.  By tomorrow we will take a step back...book it.  Showme will say this at 5 am when he checks in

If the eps takes a step back from the .8" 15 day mean snowfall and temps near 50 i will walk straight off the ledge into the abyss 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If the eps takes a step back from the .8" 15 day mean snowfall and temps near 50 i will walk straight off the ledge into the abyss 

You won’t have to walk.  I will strap us both to Wonderdog’s new snowblower and fling us off the American Legion bridge.  

[frd]

Low solar and volcanic activity are connected in some reports I have been reading. 

 

And this in the last 24 hours

 

 

 

 

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/krakatau/news/72760/Krakatoa-volcano-Sunda-Strait-Indonesia-extraordinary-footage-showing-intense-explosions-of-water-wi.html

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Honestly if that verifies then this whole wait is beyond worth it.

Yea I lol at those saying this winter can't be considered good now no matter what because of the bad start. They are only saying that now because now sucks. But if we actually got a repeat of something like Feb 2010 they would be calling it epic once it happens. 

[Bob Chill]

The one thing about the weeklies that almost leads me to believe they might not be totally wrong is the prominence and stability of the height anomalies. Sometimes (many times) the height patterns are ambiguous. Meaning the height anomalies are generally neutral and the flow is flat. The atmoshpere is never like that in real time so the spread is so large that any outcome is possible.

That's not how the weeklies look right now at all. They are basically screaming -ao/nao and talking loudly about a -epo/+pna couplet. And its like that for 4-5 straight weeks. I cant think of another time when the weeklies were so insistant about a major pattern reversal. They will either score a major win or an epic fail. Heck, even if they are halfway right we'll still be happy 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I remember in 04-07 or so the NAM was actually very good.  I don’t know if every other model got better or it just got worse 

In 04-05 it was the ETA. They changed the name from the meso ETA to the meso NAM in 2005.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea I lol at those saying this winter can't be considered good now no matter what because of the bad start. They are only saying that now because now sucks. But if we actually got a repeat of something like Feb 2010 they would be calling it epic once it happens. 

I dont think many would call the winter epic even with a feb 2010 redux. Greatest comeback would be a good term but epic winter is off the table in my gradebook

[Bob Chill]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs says to keep an eye on d10ish. Looks better than the 12z run. 

If we have a day 10 event and the weeklies start showing up on the eps...oh man

The d10 deal would be a banged up mess at best unless h5 improves massively. It's all we got so maybe we should start a thread?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Ha....the one member with zilch. Probably the one to verify.

[Fozz]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I lol at those saying this winter can't be considered good now no matter what because of the bad start. They are only saying that now because now sucks. But if we actually got a repeat of something like Feb 2010 they would be calling it epic once it happens. 

Yeah the only thing we're too late for is a wall to wall winter like 02-03 or 13-14. But those kinds of years are rare to begin with. We all know that a solid pattern starting late January can bring some great results during our peak climo.

[EastCoast NPZ]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I dont think many would call the winter epic even with a feb 2010 redux. Greatest comeback would be a good term but epic winter is off the table in my gradebook

100% agree.  No winter without December and/or early January snow will ever be considered epic in my book.

[aldie 22]

Winter starts when it starts in my eyes not some made up date like December 21st or some mythological term like meteroligical winter.

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I dont think many would call the winter epic even with a feb 2010 redux. Greatest comeback would be a good term but epic winter is off the table in my gradebook

Just the other day in the SNE forum a few posters were arguing over whether 2015 was epic. That winter was pretty uneventful for them until late January, but we all know what happened after that. Getting multiple blizzards and a solid period of deep winter qualifies as epic in my book. If we were fortunate enough to end up with another Feb 2010 but colder and with a few more storms, I think you'd agree.

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In 04-05 it was the ETA. They changed the name from the meso ETA to the meso NAM in 2005.  

I miss the NGM....we would wait on pins and needles for that and the ETA and AVN to roll in.

[osfan24]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I lol at those saying this winter can't be considered good now no matter what because of the bad start. They are only saying that now because now sucks. But if we actually got a repeat of something like Feb 2010 they would be calling it epic once it happens. 

It would absolutely be epic. Would it be wall-to-wall winter? No, but how many of those have we had. 2013-2014 is the only one I remember. It was a great winter, but I'd still like 2009-2010 over it, and maybe 1995-1996.

[aldie 22]

Man if we get 30-40" of snow in February and March and you don't call that an epic winter then you clowns will never be happy 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man if we get 30-40" of snow in February and March and you don't call that an epic winter then you clowns will never be happy 

The only way to solve this dilemma is to wait until we 30" then discuss

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yeah if there is a 180 degree reversal in late Jan and you/we end up at like 200% climo in a back loaded scenario after the start we endured...THAT is epic hands down.

Eta: we could still epic fail as well. This is all just a tease still at this point. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only way to solve this dilemma is to wait until we 30" then discuss

Watch it be all in one storm

[nj2va]

Something I like seeing (which is another indicator of a potential pattern change) is the 0.5” line is down in northern AL/MS on the 18z GEFS.  Especially when that was over us for many runs.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Something I like seeing (which is another indicator of a potential pattern change) is the 0.5” line is down in northern AL/MS on the 18z GEFS.  Especially when that was over us for many runs.

So you are calling for a big snowstorm in AL and MS

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I dont think many would call the winter epic even with a feb 2010 redux. Greatest comeback would be a good term but epic winter is off the table in my gradebook

Depends how crazy it was. If it's just a really good period that gets us to around or a little over climo no. But if we get something crazy like 50"+ from Feb 1 on that makes it an epic year imo. But I'm not picky about how or when my snow comes. I was actually pretty ok with last winter after march got me to exactly my median. That's my goal each year and I don't care how I get it.  

Don't most in here consider 87 an epic year?  The first real snow was like January 22.  So those 8 days are the difference?  If we got a repeat but starting 8 days later it's not epic?  

Im also weird I guess in that if i could have 50" either spread out over a whole winter or packed into a crazy 3-4 week run I would much rather the epic 3-4 weeks.  That would be much more extreme then spread out over a while winter.  I was fine with 2016.  It wasn't an epic year but if I'm going to get near climo snow I'd rather it all be in one epic storm than spread out over a lot of little ones.  I'm a big game hunter.  Others can go after the squirrels and rabbits.  

 

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

100% agree.  No winter without December and/or early January snow will ever be considered epic in my book.

I would rather a back loaded over a front loaded. If we started good then had no snow from mid January on it would feel like a let down in the end and leave a bad taste in my mouth. But there is a natural time limit that runs out in march so if it gets good around Feb 1 and runs till march there isn't any expectations of more when it's over. 

Kinda like going 10-6 by winning your last 10 games feels better then going 10-6 by starting 10-0 and loosing the last 6.  Maybe I'm just more patient but I would rather end good then start good and end lame. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would rather a back loaded over a front loaded. If we started good then had no snow from mid January on it would feel like a let down in the end and leave a bad taste in my mouth. But there is a natural time limit that runs out in march so if it gets good around Feb 1 and runs till march there isn't any expectations of more when it's over. 

Kinda like going 10-6 by winning your last 10 games feels better then going 10-6 by starting 10-0 and loosing the last 6.  Maybe I'm just more patient but I would rather end good then start good and end lame. 

It's all personal preference, no right or wrong.  One thing I will concede is that late winters shorten Spring, and I do like that.  Anything that makes that awful 7 months stretch from March to October a bit shorter is appreciated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, frd said:

Yep.  I read @40/70 Benchmark posting on the MEI and the weakish El Nino ( Modaki ) over a month ago. Will have to see how Ray's progression develops over time. He did well with December, actually very good I think.   

I know Ray stated that a weak(er) El Nino puts a lower ceiling on us here ( Mid Atlantic ) but about a month ago he still felt confident that we do OK.

A lot has changed since then with the global NH weather drivers.

I have not reviewed any of his latest updates, and maybe he did not provide an update, I mean it is silly to think it is only Jan 3 rd.    

I know Ray put a lot of effort into his seasonal. I admire his work and that of Tom's as well. 

 

I updated in my sne outlook thread a few days ago.

No changes.

Only things that I missed:

- I did not think the we would see a technical SSW, though I did expect a perturbed PV and plenty of second half blocking

- I did not foresee the +EPO/pac jet in December..which is attributable to the SSW enhanced MJO in conjunction with the gradient between polar lows and tropical ridging.

But that doesn't affect the longer term, and I still hit the Dec temp anomalies...just those aforementioned nuances were different than forecast.

The actual SSW was the only curve ball...potential effects down the road are that it could delay the onset of the great pattern a bit beyond 1/20 (though I'm not amending anything) and could make for a better March than forecast, which was normal.

I think you guys will be fine...be patient. Odds favor the largest events focusing to your north, though.

[SnowGoose69]

46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I miss the NGM....we would wait on pins and needles for that and the ETA and AVN to roll in.

The ETA basically changed forecasting accuracy.  If you look at how good the 2 day forecasts improved or even the 24 hour forecasts from 1993 to 1998 it was remarkable.  The one amazing thing about the 95-96 winter I always point out is that virtually none of the storms busted inside 24 hours markedly.  At least up here.  We had one or two that ended up snowier than forecast but no major forecast error really occurred one way or the other on any.  If that same winter repeats in 91-92 not a chance that happens 

[NCSNOW]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I dont think many would call the winter epic even with a feb 2010 redux. Greatest comeback would be a good term but epic winter is off the table in my gradebook

To each his own. Still has a legit shot down here. Need to sink these last free throws for the win. Still time.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I updated in my sne outlook thread a few days ago.

No changes.

Only things that I missed:

- I did not think the we would see a technical SSW, though I did expect a perturbed PV and plenty of second half blocking

- I did not foresee the +EPO/pac jet in December..which is attributable to the SSW enhanced MJO in conjunction with the gradient between polar lows and tropical ridging.

But that doesn't affect the longer term, and I still hit the Dec temp anomalies...just those aforementioned nuances were different than forecast.

The actual SSW was the only curve ball...potential effects down the road are that it could delay the onset of the great pattern a bit beyond 1/20 (though I'm not amending anything) and could make for a better March than forecast, which was normal.

I think you guys will be fine...be patient. Odds favor the largest events focusing to your north, though.

Thanks for the update. Just curious what, if any, are you thinking might be a good analog to what might be coming?  My one worry is a lot of the weak to moderate nino analogs with bad starts and big second halfs it was go big or go home here. Many of them we got major snows, like 78 and 87 but the years that the big storms missed north like you say (1969 and 2005 for instance) ended up below average snowfall here and wouldn't really make many happy after a total crap first half to only have a mediocre second half.