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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Gotta love the closed ULLs dropping rain during prime time
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png&key=9ca0ec7eca5cca923ffc8d41fa930b09e83a8f2d7239986786d44b5d98293a8d
Lol thought that was tomorrows map
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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

^Every panel beyond that looks epic.

D14-21 doesn't look so good but d18-25 implies that week 3 in general has fast and significant changes for the better. And I totally agree that the rest of the run is epic. I'll feel much better when we're at week -1 with a -NAO already in place. Until then Deb's gonna Deb. 

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The good thing about our sub is we are all on the same page with accepting we're screwed until we're not screwed in real time. Heartbreaks and near misses bring out the worst. Wall to wall disgusting runs and expectations of total failure keeps things peaceful. 

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35 minutes ago, Ji said:
50 minutes ago, nj2va said:
Yeah Coastal just posted about them...great look in Week 3 (see above).  Wonder if its a bit rushed but I’ll gladly take it.

Disaster because everytime they come out it looks great week 3. Its a running joke now with Bob

Not really.  Two weeks ago week 5 was pretty much where it looked real good.  Week 4 probably was better than week 2 shows now but not necessarily by a ton 

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36 minutes ago, Ji said:

Here is today eps at 360w..can we go to this look in 3-5 days? 

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Gotta love the closed ULLs dropping rain during prime time
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png&key=9ca0ec7eca5cca923ffc8d41fa930b09e83a8f2d7239986786d44b5d98293a8d

Lol thought that was tomorrows map

With sub 540 thickness.  What?!

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

It happened pretty suddenly in Jan 2007. Right on the 16th.

 

BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, MD
Daily Data For a Month
January 2007

Day   MaxT   MinT   AvgT   Dprt    HDD    CDD   Pcpn   Snow   Dpth
 1      53     44   48.5   15.1     16      0   1.07    0.0      0
 2      50     29   39.5    6.2     25      0   0.00    0.0      0
 3      55     26   40.5    7.3     24      0   0.00    0.0      0
 4      61     29   45.0   11.9     20      0   0.00    0.0      0
 5      62     43   52.5   19.5     12      0   0.31    0.0      0
 6      71     56   63.5   30.5      1      0   0.03    0.0      0
 7      56     44   50.0   17.1     15      0   0.31    0.0      0
 8      53     34   43.5   10.7     21      0   0.50    0.0      0
 9      47     30   38.5    5.7     26      0      T      T      0
10      37     24   30.5   -2.2     34      0      T      T      0
11      42     20   31.0   -1.7     34      0   0.00    0.0      0
12      50     35   42.5    9.8     22      0   0.03    0.0      0
13      65     50   57.5   24.8      7      0      T    0.0      0
14      67     50   58.5   25.9      6      0   0.05    0.0      0
15      68     49   58.5   25.9      6      0      T    0.0      0
16      64     30   47.0   14.4     18      0   0.00    0.0      0
17      34     22   28.0   -4.6     37      0   0.00    0.0      0
18      35     18   26.5   -6.1     38      0      T    0.0      0
19      46     30   38.0    5.3     27      0   0.00    0.0      0
20      36     24   30.0   -2.7     35      0      T      T      0
21      29     19   24.0   -8.7     41      0   0.15    0.9      1
22      33     27   30.0   -2.8     35      0   0.01      T      1
23      41     28   34.5    1.7     30      0      T      T      0
24      42     29   35.5    2.6     29      0   0.00    0.0      0
25      37     20   28.5   -4.4     36      0      T      T      0
26      31     14   22.5  -10.5     42      0   0.00    0.0      0
27      54     20   37.0    4.0     28      0   0.00    0.0      0
28      45     28   36.5    3.4     28      0   0.02      T      0
29      31     20   25.5   -7.7     39      0   0.00    0.0      0
30      41     19   30.0   -3.3     35      0      T      T      0
31      33     20   26.5   -6.9     38      0   0.00    0.0      0

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

I think we are still in the game for a workable pattern by the 20th. Some sort of a fluke deal is certainly not impossible before that.

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I loved February 07....VD 2 for all!!

Without question my favorite sleet storm of all time. The glacial period following was epic. My buddy's wife was an xray tech and her practice was jammed from sledding accidents and slip and falls. Lol

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The glaze in Feb 07 was so slippery, I remember being able to slide on it as if I was skating. It was actually pretty dangerous, but then again I was 16.

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I actually think the flip will come pretty fast whenever we get it, so yes I think it’s possible. Do I think this exact timing will happen if the date of the flip? Not sure. 

Exactly what the weeklies show....a snap to winter and every panel after this stays cold.  

 KT4tmhB.jpg

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2 things:

1.  I'm so f-cking tired of talking about the weeklies as the only thing we got going on.

2.  FWIW, they've been consistent in showing a good-to-epic late Jan/early Feb even once it became clear that these first 2 weeks of January would not be a transition period but instead just more of the disgusting same.  Not sure what that means, but either our patience will be rewarded or they will epically bust.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Without question my favorite sleet storm of all time. The glacial period following was epic. My buddy's wife was an xray tech and her practice was jammed from sledding accidents and slip and falls. Lol

Let's do this

Screenshot_20190102-205708_Chrome.jpg

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think we are still in the game for a workable pattern by the 20th. Some sort of a fluke deal is certainly not impossible before that.

I’m riding this flip til I’m either taking a walk through 25 degree temps with heavy fatties rippin, beer in hand...or taking a walk on Feb 2 while its 75 with a margarita in my hand.  

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56 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Bob is on the street talking to Chuck now

Chuck just told Bob to.............

shut up.   :P

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44 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The weeklies 45 day snowfall map is NSFW.  

I'm guessing it's either a hideous snowhole over us, or an epic KU fest.

EDIT: map wasn’t there when I first replied. That is incredible.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The weeklies 45 day snowfall map is NSFW.  

Never saw one like that in years.  That was like feet and feet of snow  ( I could only wish it were true ) 

And NO SCREW ZONES   pretty  !!!!!! 

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38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The good thing about our sub is we are all on the same page with accepting we're screwed until we're not screwed in real time. Heartbreaks and near misses bring out the worst. Wall to wall disgusting runs and expectations of total failure keeps things peaceful. 

I dont think there is a sub in the east that doesnt feel sunk right now (see what i did there).

Win, lose or draw I still enjoy it here and have learned as much (or more) in bad times as I have in good times, cause I know what to look for with snow patterns, but the burns have more of a lasting impression and seeing what went wrong is part of the weather weenie growth.  lol

If/when we flip, this place is gonna be madness trying to land the first notworthy event.  

Keep the good chatter up.

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Never saw one like that in years.  That was like feet and feet of snow  ( I could only wish it were true ) 

And NO SCREW ZONES   pretty  !!!!!! 

So you never saw one like that or it has been years since you have seen one like that? Can't have it both ways. :D

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31 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

With sub 540 thickness.  What?!

I'm bored....

Since you said that, I looked 700/850's all good.  Here is your problem, storm is on the way out, and likely dynamics to flip have exited stage right.

gfs_T2m_us_49.png

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

So you never saw one like that or it has been years since you have seen one like that? Can't have it both ways. :D

I can't control my emotions :-)    

I was crying in joy ! 

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14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The weeklies 45 day snowfall map is NSFW.  

Post it....I dare ya.....

edit....scrolled down.

Damn that is just a beaut.

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

So you never saw one like that or it has been years since you have seen one like that? Can't have it both ways. :D

its almost worth the pain of waiting............

 

or is it?

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