• Member Statistics

    15,612
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Harold
    Newest Member
    Harold
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm fine honestly if this winter craps the bed for us. It happens. Wont be the first wont be the last. But if Boston and NYC get 80"+ somehow while DC bwi and phl get virtually shutout I'm trading this hobby for origami, crochet, and brass rubbing not necessarily in that order.

I'm kinda with you there...To me, the DC/Balt snowhole (like last year) feels worse than what we're dealing with now...at least with something like this, we're all in it together, lol So no snow envy and gut-wrenching misses inside of 5 days? If we have to fail, I'd rather it be how we are right now!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If this winter doesn’t turn around it’s going to be devastating to long range forecasting, especially with the general public. This was the first winter since 09/10 where the many “non-weather” people I know were paying close attention.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We should just go with whatever the EPS says.  Now hoping for just a couple solid weeks of winter in Feb.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Soi dropped to -13. 4th Neg day. Something has to give

Won’t be next week.  It’s a furnace coast to coast for January.  Even southern Canada is warm relatively 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

The GEFS looks good for a major storm at the end. 

500h_anom.nh (1).png

Yeah but we're back to unicorn chasing at the tail end of an ens run. We were starting to get things to move close over the past 5 days or so irt lead time lessening but now we r back to square 1 again delaying any changes to past 240 hours if not longer. And if u are watching the 2m temp anomalies drive the CPF and bn temps west of the continental divide and seem to want finally want to establish they regime out there while we push AN still in the east.  Like I said I'm trying not to look past 10 days anymore but man it sure seems we are losing some of the stepping-up looks we were seeing out West over the next 8-12 days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Soi dropped to -13. 4th Neg day. Something has to give

This is like explosive atmospheric diarrhea over the PAC and lower 48. Only thing giving is mother nature's bowels and we r getting crapped on repeatedly. I'm hanging in til Jan 15 barely. Clock is ticking.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This as we approach week 3 of Jan....truly the meat and guts heart of winter, isn't going to cut it. One could argue on the gefs that at least there are finally widespread neg temp anomalies over N Americs but we keep pushing it back. Another 5-8 days from now and we r punting all or January.  Not there yet but signs are starting to show up. I guess Feb could rock but I mentioned a while back this is setting up to possibly be a 2-week back loaded winter....and that may be generous at this point.

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_64.png

gem-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Incremental improvement on the 0z EPS over AK/EPO domain, and overall up top.. less blue. I think over the next few runs we see the EPO ridge continue to develop and and the AO should trend negative. NA blocking probably wont get going until the last week of Jan.

eps_z500a_nh_61.thumb.png.994adce6610fc3d33d5fb17135fd72e7.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GEFS arent a trainwreck towards the end but we keep delaying things and I'm more interested in seeing changes/steps 10 days or less.

Now is not the time to look at op runs and expect a discrete threat to consistently show up. We are probably still in shutout mode for the next 10-14 days. I am sticking with the 20th for a workable pattern.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those wondering how we went from this on the GEFS in the EPO region just 24 hours ago...

jan200zgefs.gif.32ad2a6e593c907066218272ee85053a.gif

 

to this... I will try to show you.

jan300zgefs.gif.a96cf780360bef8359df092228d8593f.gif

 

 

Below is yesterdays 00z run of the 5 day mean at day 16. Notice that we have a piece of the trop pv sitting over the Aleutians with slight ridging in the south central Pacific. Between these two features, getting squeezed, is where the jet is running.  Now what is occurring is that there is resistance/friction occurring on both the northern and southern portions of the the jet from both of these features (circles above and below the jet). This friction tends to pull the northern portion of the jet pole-ward and the southern portion towards the equator which can potentially create separate jets off the PAC jet or what we would call a split flow. Now what we are seeing on the northern portion of the jet is a great deal of resistance being created. This is evidenced by the tightly packed isobars and the highly anomalous pressure drops within the circle. The greater the resistance the greater the desire for that portion of the jet to push poleward. And as you can see we have a strong EPO ridge that is pushing all the way to the pole. On the southern portion of the jet the resistance is much weaker so we are only seeing a small amount of response from the southern portion of the jet. The look below is that ofa split flow.

 

jan25daymean.gif.f69d176f4c4271b96ce70009b25ef2c1.gif

 

 

Now compare the one above to the current one 5 day mean at day 15. Just some slight differences. :) Notice we now see the trop pv situated over Russia to the far west with only a weak broad trough showing over the Aleutians. Now when you look at the circle above the jet we are seeing much weaker low pressure anomalies and the isobars are no where near being packed as much as we saw in the previous example. To make matters worse we are seeing the south Pacific ridging shifted westward so we are seeing less of a squeeze of the jet. All in all we are seeing much less resistance on the northern portion of the jet so we are no longer seeing that strong poleward push. To make matters worse we are also seeing less resistance on the southern portion of the jet so we are losing the signature of a possible southern jet as well. Now the look below is one that is caught between different solutions. That of a split in the flow and one of the PAC jet just bulling straight ahead though displaced north of where we have typically seen it. And when I look through that time period day by day we see the mixed signals between these two outcomes. 

 

jan300z5daymean.gif.0a73088d1582f4cce1221c9461caf370.gif

 

So in a nutshell by far the biggest player in these different looks is the pv and where we now see it situated. But take heart. Though the current look doesn't compare to what we had seen in past runs it isn't a shut out pattern by any means. It's just a look that will take a little more work and luck for us to score in.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Until the PAC Jet starts to relax we are in shutout mode. It seems to me that around the 15th is where we don't get pucked on by the PAC but still transient flow, so the 19th to 20th is going to finally show something that we can grab on to for rest of two maybe 3 weeks b2d992932b448e1168a46df915573500.jpg&key=0e1b2b3500d768a884efaf7e2e59fd91afb8a09ceb99571677adc06d3a3aa339

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z GEFS arent a trainwreck towards the end but we keep delaying things and I'm more interested in seeing changes/steps 10 days or less.

It trended to the eps

I'm also starting to get worried this winter might be a dud.

I remember people were excited about this winter because of a weak EL Nino.

That's why everyone went above normal snowfall wise and colder than normal.

****ing mjo is screwing the pattern.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It trended to the eps

I'm also starting to get worried this winter might be a dud.

I remember people were excited about this winter because of a weak EL Nino.

That's why everyone went above normal snowfall wide and colder thab normal.

****ing mjo is screwing the pattern.

That and CPC has this ENSO classified officially as neutral which is what we call la nada correct? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That and CPC has this ENSO classified officially as neutral which is what we call la nada correct? 

Yes sir

If the mjo didn't stall , I think we would all be fine now.

Weak el Ninos are very good for your area. It's a shame how this winter is going right now.

I have 5 inches thanks to the November storm but it's been friggin boring since then. The other time I saw snow was in late November in Cooperstown.

All the major cities have struggled so far this winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Incremental improvement on the 0z EPS over AK/EPO domain, and overall up top.. less blue. I think over the next few runs we see the EPO ridge continue to develop and and the AO should trend negative. NA blocking probably wont get going until the last week of Jan.

eps_z500a_nh_61.thumb.png.994adce6610fc3d33d5fb17135fd72e7.png

EPS is progressing slower than the weeklies...again. Ugh

0z eps

IMG_8186.thumb.PNG.96323a290c41cd473d9757218f2c19e1.PNG

weeklies same time 

IMG_8187.thumb.PNG.53f1e8a062280bdd9eb71b930accefd5.PNG

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, psuhoffman said:

EPS is progressing slower than the weeklies...again. Ugh

0z eps

IMG_8186.thumb.PNG.96323a290c41cd473d9757218f2c19e1.PNG

weeklies same time 

IMG_8187.thumb.PNG.53f1e8a062280bdd9eb71b930accefd5.PNG

 

 

It's not moving up in time

I know I'm posting too much in this thread but I really feel everyone's pain in here. The prospects before this winter were great for above normal for your area and my area . 

Hopefully the pattern changes and everyone cashes in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What a difference a year makes. Even tho this was generally a coastal beast at least we were tracking significant threats 

 

FB_IMG_1546518259433.jpg

Was thinking the same thing this morning. Even last years craptastic winter had storm threats to fail on. So far, the only thing we are failing on are winter pattern threats. <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't think there's any point to following things for at least another week.  I think we'll be lucky to get a decent sustained pattern by the end of January.  

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS is progressing slower than the weeklies...again. Ugh

0z eps

IMG_8186.thumb.PNG.96323a290c41cd473d9757218f2c19e1.PNG

weeklies same time 

IMG_8187.thumb.PNG.53f1e8a062280bdd9eb71b930accefd5.PNG

 

 

Not by much, maybe a couple days. And arguably the EPS is a little 'ahead' with the HL look. Either way it was expected. I had already mentally kicked the can down the road a bit. I had been thinking the 15th was doable for a serviceable pattern- it still might be- but based on recent runs of the ensembles the 20th is probably more realistic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don't think there's any point to following things for at least another week.  I think we'll be lucky to get a decent sustained pattern by the end of January.  

Love to hear your thoughts on modeling overall. Specific to this season, the great concensus and so far not materializing. 

You really think the evolution of the stat did it or was it the Pacific and the nature of the El Nino?   

I guess we are just not there yet with modeling to any great accuracies. December, to a degree and all of Jan.,  will go down without much to show for it. December was above normal, and Jan will be above as well. 

What a bummer so far. But, my feeling is there is still hope in Feb and March, but like most I would agree, regardless of outcomes this winter can never place highly for a great winter when you have to endure this pattern. I have mud, mud and more mud and even lady bugs on the screens.  

 

  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not going to over think this. We just had a record soi spike during a nino oni month. A December mjo amp record and a record time spent in phase 5.  And a record Dec sswe on both poles which are correlated to warmth at initiation.

Every one of those things are bad.  They are also all related to some degree but the record levels recorded in each just points to the significance.  

The pattern went to crap as soon as those things ramped up mid December and it's been in a recurring loop ever since.  As of yet the effect hasn't waned and there can be a lag, plus HM thinks the lag this year may be enhanced. I've had faith that at some point those influences will wane and the pattern will flip.  Maybe the tropical convection in bad spots is just the base state this year.  But whichever it's not realistic to think we would have a good pattern with all those things going wrong at record levels  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting what Jack mentions here about Feb, say what you want that a call for a snowier and colder Feb is like , yeah, duh....

But, if Feb delivers we will be partying in the streets. 

I feel the snap back does occur, and it could be remarkable. As remarkable as this borerdom right now. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.