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nj2va

January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Well. OK , Ventrice but I thought there was a lag last year as well with the strat event, as I read from HM and recalled myself. I imagine Mike means it is simply taking longer overall. 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

Love to hear your thoughts on modeling overall. Specific to this season, the great concensus and so far not materializing. 

You really think the evolution of the stat did it or was it the Pacific and the nature of the El Nino?   

I guess we are just not there yet with modeling to any great accuracies. December, to a degree and all of Jan.,  will go down without much to show for it. December was above normal, and Jan will be above as well. 

What a bummer so far. But, my feeling is there is still hope in Feb and March, but like most I would agree, regardless of outcomes this winter can never place highly for a great winter when you have to endure this pattern. I have mud, mud and more mud and even lady bugs on the screens.  

 

  

It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern.

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Interesting what Jack mentions here about Feb, say what you want that a call for a snowier and colder Feb is like , yeah, duh....
But, if Feb delivers we will be partying in the streets. 
I feel the snap back does occur, and it could be remarkable. As remarkable as this borerdom right now. 
 
 
 
No one is going to win long range forecaster of the year for going cold and snowy in February.
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@poolz1

winds continue to reverse today , the record on this date is -12.2 from JB's buddy winter,  good ole 1985. Don't laugh there are some similarities , now we stand at -5.3

More

The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -5.3 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -12.2 m/s 1985 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 62.6 m/s 1989

 

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

t wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern.

Interesting , this event is taking a larger scope and in the end may last longer overall, and cause more trop effects. Additional warming forecasted as well. This strat second wind IMHO may up the ante for Feb and March and cause a further delay in the MJO to late Jan, just speculation right now though. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern.

I remember how quickly the Euro flipped from a SECS-y pattern to PAC vomit for end of December into January (and hasn’t looked back). I honestly could see a similar quick flip happen the other way given the state of the atmosphere this winter. I’m still hopeful for back end of January into February. My thinking hasn’t changed, just shifted by a few days. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I remember how quickly the Euro flipped from a SECS-y pattern to PAC vomit for end of December into January (and hasn’t looked back). I honestly could see a similar quick flip happen the other way given the state of the atmosphere this winter. I’m still hopeful for back end of January into February. My thinking hasn’t changed, just shifted by a few days. 

Same here. I am 'hopeful' we can still salvage the last 10 days of Jan. Get a workable pattern by mid month or so, and maybe score a moderate event before Feb. That would alleviate a lot of anxiety around here.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

6z gefs was a great run. Good look up top. Lots of snow days 11-16. I'm back all on. Woooooo

Are you kidding? Any charts?

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2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Are you kidding? Any charts?

Yes and No. It was a good run. Am I really that excited, no. 

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48 minutes ago, frd said:

Up , up and away......

 

I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo.  

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3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Are you kidding? Any charts?

It's not worth posting day 15 charts right now until guidance gets some stability and it's believable.   But it's a good look at h5 and almost nothing in snow through day 10 than it spikes up to 2-4" across the area day 10-15. That's a good bump in a 5 day period at that range. But again until it becomes consistent across guidance (damn you EPS) and moves within range where there has been at least some small bit of accuracy (day 8 or so) it's not worth much. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It's not worth posting day 15 charts right now until guidance gets some stability and it's believable.   But it's a good look at h5 and almost nothing in snow through day 10 than it spikes up to 2-4" across the area day 10-15. That's a good bump in a 5 day period at that range. But again until it becomes consistent across guidance (damn you EPS) and moves within range where there has been at least some small bit of accuracy (day 8 or so) it's not worth much. 

Maybe but it's around the time you have been talking about for changes to take place.

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47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern.

Agreed.  There is enough signs of change to start seeing real change in the coming weeks.  PSU's assertion that its the the "perfect storm" of anomalous events makes sense and its hard to go against until something big shows up to knock the bully off the block.  

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo.  

Of course there is evidence that the sswe might be partly to blame for the mess we're in. Sswe in winter are correlated with strong mjo warm phases. And strong warm phases are correlated with a positive soi.

Those 2 are really the same since having convection nw and N of australia puts the mjo into warm phases and having lower pressure there will favor a +Soi.

I am not an expert at the strat stuff but others who are have suggested a causality between the sswe and amplifying the mjo.  

So your relying on the thing that has totally wrecked our winter so far to save us. 

Im only being partially serious here and I agree there is a chance the sswe could lead to an extreme pattern flip later, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat and talk like we "need an sswe" when the event itself is hard to predict and the impacts are wildly unpredictable and sometimes they do more harm than good in a specific location. 

Some of our best winters had no sswe at all. And some of our worst had major sswe. I feel like this has become the new fad in the weather world. I'm not saying it's not important. It is. Just like enso is. Or the mjo. Or the nao/amo/aam/pna/epo/wpo/qbo.....  but focusing solely on one thing to that degree is missing the forest from the trees. 

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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo.  

I believe to a degree we are in uncharted waters and while even the best mets know in real time what the issues are now, they did not see them coming even a few weeks ago. 

The best explanation I have seen to date is what HM posted last night, and not the greatest news. Things take time. 

MJO slowing, heat balance needs to be restored, things are a real mess now. We hae a negative feedback loop in the Pac. 

  1. ore

    Like I said before about the AAM, until these anticyclones are reduced (if not reversed with next +AAM cycle) and wave absorption decreases and the Mid Latitude waves get room to breathe, the North Pacific will remain unchanged

 

So, HM explained this, but I never remember HM talking about this a couple weeks ago.

 

I can't think of anyone who has gotten the pattern right so far.  Certainly not the Pac pattern and the raging jet and widespread warmth. 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course there is evidence that the sswe might be partly to blame for the mess we're in. Sswe in winter are correlated with strong mjo warm phases. And strong warm phases are correlated with a positive soi.

Those 2 are really the same since having convection nw and N of australia puts the mjo into warm phases and having lower pressure there will favor a +Soi.

I am not an expert at the strat stuff but others who are have suggested a causality between the sswe and amplifying the mjo.  

So your relying on the thing that has totally wrecked our winter so far to save us. 

Im only being partially serious here and I agree there is a chance the sswe could lead to an extreme pattern flip later, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat and talk like we "need an sswe" when the event itself is hard to predict and the impacts are wildly unpredictable and sometimes they do more harm than good in a specific location. 

Some of our best winters had no sswe at all. And some of our worst had major sswe. I feel like this has become the new fad in the weather world. I'm not saying it's not important. It is. Just like enso is. Or the mjo. Or the nao/amo/aam/pna/epo/wpo/qbo.....  but focusing solely on one thing to that degree is missing the forest from the trees. 

Bingo.  Perfectly stated.

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20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm going to hug the SSW for all its worth, because everything else has not worked, and we need something to change the weather mojo.  

JB is blowing so much hot air it's overwhelming the pattern obviously. 

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9 hours ago, Fozz said:

They almost never lose. But the problem with Maine is that a lot of it is very empty and isolated.

Haha.  Arguably that just the reason that many of us choose to live here!  Besides, there are plenty of black flies to keep us company.

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Well if the MJO progression has slowed as stated by HM, assuming we make it to 8-1-2, maybe it will crawl through those phases as well.   

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Besides the unicorn fantasy pattern the 6z GEFS shows, seems like guidance has come into better agreement (and not surprisingly moved toward the EPS).  Have to hope February really delivers at this point.

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course there is evidence that the sswe might be partly to blame for the mess we're in. Sswe in winter are correlated with strong mjo warm phases. And strong warm phases are correlated with a positive soi.

Those 2 are really the same since having convection nw and N of australia puts the mjo into warm phases and having lower pressure there will favor a +Soi.

I am not an expert at the strat stuff but others who are have suggested a causality between the sswe and amplifying the mjo.  

So your relying on the thing that has totally wrecked our winter so far to save us. 

Im only being partially serious here and I agree there is a chance the sswe could lead to an extreme pattern flip later, but I still can't help wonder about those that obsess about the strat and talk like we "need an sswe" when the event itself is hard to predict and the impacts are wildly unpredictable and sometimes they do more harm than good in a specific location. 

Some of our best winters had no sswe at all. And some of our worst had major sswe. I feel like this has become the new fad in the weather world. I'm not saying it's not important. It is. Just like enso is. Or the mjo. Or the nao/amo/aam/pna/epo/wpo/qbo.....  but focusing solely on one thing to that degree is missing the forest from the trees. 

Not at all what I'm doing.  Not sure where that came from.  It's no fad for me.  Its just another variable in the meteo mix.  We all know that the nao/epo., so I'm not sure why that's even being considered as "missed". It is missed alright... by all of us.

So far what we thought was going to be a potentially good winter has been nothing short of sh!t.  We've all been "fooled" enough by long range guidance to know that seemingly better times keep getting pushed back. 

My interest in the SSW is and always been that it CAN be an important variable for cold in the conus. (depending on where/how it sets up).  It's just like EPO/NAO/AO, and so far none of them have materialized (and I know why so i dont need to be told).  Not being harsh but there are alot of informed pros/amateurs that all have been scratching their heads and there is no one right answer....or person that knows.  Thats the fun of this game.  We all have our thoughts and come here to share them.  

That's it.  

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26 minutes ago, frd said:

I believe to a degree we are in uncharted waters and while even the best mets know in real time what the issues are now, they did not see them coming even a few weeks ago. 

The best explanation I have seen to date is what HM posted last night, and not the greatest news. Things take time. 

MJO slowing, heat balance needs to be restored, things are a real mess now. We hae a negative feedback loop in the Pac. 

  1. ore

    Like I said before about the AAM, until these anticyclones are reduced (if not reversed with next +AAM cycle) and wave absorption decreases and the Mid Latitude waves get room to breathe, the North Pacific will remain unchanged

 

So, HM explained this, but I never remember HM talking about this a couple weeks ago.

 

I can't think of anyone who has gotten the pattern right so far.  Certainly not the Pac pattern and the raging jet and widespread warmth. 

 

 

 

Agreed.  This is the perfect sh!t storm for us.  MJO stall in 5 sucks.  Pac is killing us and we need help from above....literally and figuratively.  That's why I'm playing with the voodo doll right now (SSW), because something needs to invoke real change.  That is and has been my interest as while I'll take it, i'm not big on bootleg cold and sneaking one in in a crappy pattern.  Mind you thats alot of what we get, but a stable longwave pattern is what I'm looking for, and SSW events can offer that in weeks, not in and out like the other tellies we look for.   

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33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Well if the MJO progression has slowed as stated by HM, assuming we make it to 8-1-2, maybe it will crawl through those phases as well.   

we can only hope.  We've surely "done our time".

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30 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Besides the unicorn fantasy pattern the 6z GEFS shows, seems like guidance has come into better agreement (and not surprisingly moved toward the EPS).  Have to hope February really delivers at this point.

What other guidance?  The GEPS?

NQwLq2t.png

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13 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What other guidance?  The GEPS?

 

I assumed he was referring the the EPS and GEFS, but excluding the 6z GEFS run.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I assumed he was referring the the EPS and GEFS, but excluding the 6z GEFS run.

why would you exclude the latest run?

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It wasn't that long ago the EPS was consistently showing a good pattern with a monster -EPO and big time cold for our area. Then it had a crap run here and there then quickly transitioned to PAC Puke. And here we are. I think with all the strat stuff occurring, plus the MJO amplitude not being well modeled (but now headed into the better phases), and the SOI dropping- there is a chance we could see a rapid shift in the guidance back to a more favorable pattern.

Agreed. What I'm hearing this morning from everybody is how mets try to predict the winter and they all fail. If they were unable to predict this crap pattern then they're probably unable to predict us going into a great pattern. That can go both ways. They point to this thing and that thing in the future and try to predict how it will impact a specific city on the globe. It's honestly ridiculous what they do year in and year out. It's all way too complicated. That's why you just have to let the weather come to you and not look ahead more than 10 days imo. I know this isn't a technical/scientific post but it's pretty much the truth. So, this is what I'm thinking. It's still WAY too early to throw the towel in. If the EPS went from showing a good look to a crap look in a couple days there is no reason to think that in the next couple of days it will go from showing a crap look to an amazing look.  Especially with the some support from the GEFS, GEPS, MJO moving along, and SOI going negative. If it's still showing a crap pattern on Jan 20 then we punt all of January but to punt it all on January 3 is still ridiculous. Also, I wish everyone didn't worship at the alter of the weeklies as much as they do. They are the biggest fail machine I have ever seen past week 2.  It is amazing how with all the forecasting tools we have we're still kind of clueless how it all fits together in the LR. 

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People should also realize that we might pull off a snow event for the MA and NE in the 11-15 day on the GEFS and EPS.  That pattern is nowhere remotely bad to what we were in 12/15 to now 

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