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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, wake4est said:

High end map. Is it too much to ask that for once we over perform??

422A86E3-3888-4B10-9B4C-24FC478E4DE8.png

That’s up from last time, right?

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Would of been happy with the totals in Greensboro but driving to Boone right now to a cabin. Looks like I'll hit jackpot there. The question is when I'll be able to get back to Greensboro....Wilkesboro and Winston Salem in between look like they will get slammed too

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Just now, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Where do you find this map for Virginia bordering county’s like Surry  straight up I77 

 

 

It was on NWS Raleigh’s page.  Check the one for NWS Blacksburg.

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7 minutes ago, neilpappas75 said:

Why are my post getting erased? I have not said anything wrong.

There is a thread for venting. This isn't it,

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2 hours ago, burgertime said:

Here is the HRR snow map... 

 

 

5c0c2e642001d.png

In my dreams man! I wish! I fear the mixing. I think these heavy bands rolling in will cool it off enough for at least a couple of hours of wet snow before back and forth mixing. Thanks for Posting on here the past couple of days!

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8 minutes ago, beanskip said:

22 HRRR actually reverts back to a snowier solution for Southern NC piedmont. 

Yep.. Hwy 74 corridor on the edge

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I know the storm is just arriving here in NC, but I've been impressed by the global models picking up on this event 7+ days. I'm not sure I've ever seen this. I'm trying to figure out why this storm is so well progged but others not so much. I'm thinking it may have to do to the strength of the waves, but that's just a guess. I'm thinking the locations right along the snow/sleet border is going to hit the jackpot of 16+" total which is insane for this area. Just think, we are only in early Dec and the way it's looking, Jan/Feb are going to be cold with plenty of blocking. I'm really thinking this is going to be a blockbuster winter for much of our region, esp the northern mountains of NC....wax those skis!

 

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1 minute ago, GreensboroWx said:

I know the storm is just arriving here in NC, but I've been impressed by the global models picking up on this event 7+ days. I'm not sure I've ever seen this. I'm trying to figure out why this storm is so well progged but others not so much. I'm thinking it may have to do to the strength of the waves, but that's just a guess. I'm thinking the locations right along the snow/sleet border is going to hit the jackpot of 16+" total which is insane for this area. Just think, we are only in early Dec and the way it's looking, Jan/Feb are going to be cold with plenty of blocking. I'm really thinking this is going to be a blockbuster winter for much of our region, esp the northern mountains of NC....wax those skis!

 

Do you think there will be any significant icing?  Seems like some of the models are picking up on the potential just SE of the Triad between Charlotte and RDU.  I'm in NW Randolph Co just south of Archdale and am hoping to stay snow/sleet and avoid an ice storm.

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7 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said:

Yeah, the HRRR has been consistent showing strong CAD temps. Impressive, if correct, which I have not reason to doubt 

Just crazy that is is showing 14" for me. wow. And it is happening currently.... wow 

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HRRR / RAP and Global’s have CLT and RDU in the game. NAM not so much. 

After studying some upstream results HRRR performed best on my score list. However, Texas (Lubbock) doesn’t deal with CAD. 

climatology and watching some upper level jets suggest the cad will be eroded in the 850 layer due to a strong jet.

 

My my prediction is Best case for the two metros would be 2-4. Greensboro cash’s out with 6-10. Foothills and mtns upwards of a foot and higher. 

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3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

The 22Z RAP has 2" qpf amounts just south of the Triad and 17" snow totals in the Triad. 

snku_acc.conus.png

That would be significant. However, with the dry air, I see a lot of initial moisture eaten up. My guess is 1.25-1.5 for Guilford county

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6 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

That would be significant. However, with the dry air, I see a lot of initial moisture eaten up. My guess is 1.25-1.5 for Guilford county

Models already account for precip not reaching the ground dude.

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23 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Do you think there will be any significant icing?  Seems like some of the models are picking up on the potential just SE of the Triad between Charlotte and RDU.  I'm in NW Randolph Co just south of Archdale and am hoping to stay snow/sleet and avoid an ice storm.

Unfortunately, I DO think there is going to be some major icing, later Sunday after the brunt of the snow is over....I'm thinking in a line from CLT to RDU for the most icing. 

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