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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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5 minutes ago, WeathermanTy said:

So do you think it will track further north? 

 

I think it could. My thinking is that once it is located in the gulf at a specific time, the models can adjust, and its a milestone in the evolution of the system.

Looking at the energy now on the coast of southern California, it just looks so slow. Of course the surface low will form out front of it, and we need that surface low in the gulf or at least along the shoreline. For the forum members that want to see snow, we need it to stay suppressed.

And I want to see if it is early or late to that point, and that will effect things down stream.

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

This is nearly all snow north of 85... transition zone south of there

arot0u6.png

Needless to say the FV3 is going to make a name for itself with this storm. We will either never take it seriously again or crown in the new king

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

This is nearly all snow north of 85... transition zone south of there

arot0u6.png

 

5 minutes ago, Wow said:

This is nearly all snow north of 85... transition zone south of there

arot0u6.png

Yes looked to me like it would have stayed snow from GSP all the way up. Does anybody have the Kuchera?

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4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


Nothing but many consistent for the fv3


.

It really has been quite consistent.  Here's a trend loop of the last TWENTY runs of the FV3 total snowfall...

BvKpabF.gif

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If the euro ticks colder too with the 850s and keeps them in the upstate I'll feel much better. Last run it really warmed once the low got to the coast. Great to see gfs and fv3 correcting colder a bit this evening.

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3 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

Needless to say the FV3 is going to make a name for itself with this storm. We will either never take it seriously again or crown in the new king

Well it takes over for the GFS in less than a month and the formulas could still be tweaked (still in beta) but here is hoping it's accurate 

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8 minutes ago, Wow said:

It really has been quite consistent.  Here's a trend loop of the last TWENTY runs of the FV3 total snowfall...

BvKpabF.gif

All I can say is Wow

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3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

This is almost comical. Close in: 

Pivotal is 29" from Morganton to Lenoir to Hickory, 28" in Blowing Rock.  As things stand now, Blowing Rock is where I will be Saturday afternoon - Tuesday.  I like the elevation
(wind potential), eastern side of the escarpment, 321 should be plowed with a backdoor through Boone and 421 if needed.  Not ready to commit further south than there at the moment, SW VA appears to be safely out of play.  Slower timing will allow ingest of the 12z run on Saturday for any last minute adjustments as I am on the road.  

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Given the current trends, I really feel confident that most of us are in for a nice surprise. Granted, I’m merely an amateur, but I really feel like this CAD is going to over perform. Sure, there is plenty that could go wrong. But I think the overall consistency speaks volumes.


.

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Mets on twitter are absolutely bashing GSP for this ridiculous basically unreadable graphic lol7E855EF9-CBD6-4323-8B34-72D2CCACBDF7.thumb.jpeg.086b6c1a2e872815d7133e32f90c524f.jpeg

Aww, I think it looks rather pretty. Unfortunately it's part of WPC's suite of probabilistic forecasting, which only goes out 72 hrs. It's automated and we can't touch it or delete it. I'd say it needs some tweaking. 

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5 minutes ago, isohume said:

Aww, I think it looks rather pretty. Unfortunately it's part of WPC's suite of probabilistic forecasting, which only goes out 72 hrs. It's automated and we can't touch it or delete it. I'd say it needs some tweaking. 

Then that makes the other maps that were confusing us when compared with the current forecasted amount map make sense now, probably also automated via WPC suite.

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4 minutes ago, isohume said:

Aww, I think it looks rather pretty. Unfortunately it's part of WPC's suite of probabilistic forecasting, which only goes out 72 hrs. It's automated and we can't touch it or delete it. I'd say it needs some tweaking. 

Thanks.  Nice to know it’s automated.  I initially felt bad for whoever had to put that puzzle together!  Thanks for all you do!  Definitely a mess trying to piece together this storm. 

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1 minute ago, WxKnurd said:

Then that makes the other maps that were confusing ya when compared with the current forecasted amount map make sense now, probably also automated via WPC suite.

Yeah the probabilistic scheme needs some work. Basically it starts with WPC's gaussian which is fitted to our own normalized fcst curve. The outputted range bins are problematic. If any part of a zone is say above 12 inches, it puts that whole area in a 12-18 inch bin. 

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13 minutes ago, isohume said:

Aww, I think it looks rather pretty. Unfortunately it's part of WPC's suite of probabilistic forecasting, which only goes out 72 hrs. It's automated and we can't touch it or delete it. I'd say it needs some tweaking. 

Yeah that honestly makes a lot of sense. WPC might want to take a look at changing that though. Definitely unsuitable for public consumption in that state. Then again I’m sure the messiness and duration of this storm make it much worse than it normally is.

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I am quite skeptical of this  new  GFS. I would expect to see alot  of that snow not to occur in the east and se  parts  of the  snow  coverage shown on the  map. We will see. I certainly havent  been terribly  impressed with it  since  it was unveiled.

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Does anyone have any correlation to what “weaker” lows have with a significant and untapped potential regarding tropical connected moisture from the Baja vs lows that bomb out and almost make there own moisture flux say from the gulf? I read some interesting things on what @olafminesaw posted on that hamster link and I feel like after reading that this may be one of the “big” ones for the lower mid Atlantic and the southeast. That tropical connection, along with pwats, waa and subsequent atmospheric processes should lead to some serious rates of snow and in my opinion one heck of an expansive qpf shield, maybe more so than what the models are predicting. Wanted to get an opinion from a met or a pro in regards to this, if there was any studies done or anything like this. This southern low is traveling a long ways and picking up immense moisture along its path. 

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5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I am quite skeptical of this  new  GFS. I would expect to see alot  of that snow not to occur in the east and se  parts  of the  snow  coverage shown on the  map. We will see. I certainly havent  been terribly  impressed with it  since  it was unveiled.

TT mixes sleet in with it, Pivotal is the site to use for snow only

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32 minutes ago, Wow said:

It really has been quite consistent.  Here's a trend loop of the last TWENTY runs of the FV3 total snowfall...

BvKpabF.gif

Thanks for this @Wow, shows quite a bit of "variables" in these Forecast(s),, Quite a complex System.. Lotsa "players" on the Field ATM..

Realistically, anything is still on the Table at "Gametime" ,, Will this be a  "Run out the Clock" to the Last Moment in the "End-Zone"?? 4th & Goal w/ .01 on the clock? While down by 2 points?

Until We see the LP position sets-up/transitions in the Gulf, or around New Orleans, into Florida, Anything is still quite possible? 

Including "Bomb-O-Genesis" Off the SE Coast A-la Jan 3~4 2018? (Yes; fantasy) I know but still,, it could somewhat be on the Table if the LP gets further south? Say off Jacksonville to Daytona Beach?

Asking for a "friend"..  

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@isohume, could you comment on why the ECMWF was not factored into the official forecast this afternoon? Why was the GFS solely relied upon? Thanks.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

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