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About isohume

  • Rank
    Model Chaser
  • Birthday October 16

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Working Out
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  1. 2018 Banter Thread

    Models killed this place!
  2. February Banter Thread

    What does the (288 hr) fox say?
  3. February Banter Thread

    Where is everybody?
  4. Weather forecasting is all about individual certainty gained from numerical guidance, statistics, climo, theory, and most importantly operational experience. It can be highly subjective. A forecast should be based on and relayed to others with confidence levels in mind either implictly or explicitly. The idea that model guidance needs to get better before forecasting is improved is missing the point. There will always be inherent pyhsical limitations to model output. Forecasting is improved through research, case studies, increased pattern recognition, training, etc. Folks expecting the models to nail a forecast are in for a wild ride, which is whats seen here with the constant frustration of chasing specific model output.
  5. The Panic Room--Winter 2017-2018

    Snow is important.
  6. Super Bowl Sunday Slippery Suprise Storm Obs

    Ha, not gloating. It was tricky down to the wire. I kept thinking in the back of my mind how the systems have been overperforming this winter and I was like oh no, not again.
  7. Super Bowl Sunday Slippery Suprise Storm Obs

    A good, but very tricky, advisory event with no major impacts.
  8. 2018 Banter Thread

    The what?
  9. 2018 Banter Thread

    The models aren't accounting for _______. I can't believe the models changed the LR pattern. Baby steps. The models suck.
  10. January Banter String

    Weather is some serious sh*t.
  11. January Banter String

    Youre not being pushy. A graupel sounding would look similar to a sleet sounding, but with dry air aloft, like a tstm sounding. The dry air aloft would not activate ice nuclei, so the lower cloud would have supercooled droplets since large dendritic flakes are not present. Dendritic flakes grow at the expense of supercooled droplets. So, any small ice crystals that form in the shallow moist layer above, falling through the supercooled region, would become coated and fall as graupel or freezing drizzle if the supercooled droplets fall on their own. A grauple sounding would look something like this...
  12. January Banter String

    I agree, they should be in banter. Although there was always some leeway when not in storm mode in the past. That policy hasn't been enforced consistently and mods break the rules themselves with banter in the disco threads. So, other folks probably don't know what/when they can or can't post non-value remarks.
  13. January Banter String

    Emergency managers really like them. They always have to plan for the worst case scenario.
  14. January Banter String

    Here's my serious take on Ji. If folks don't like his posts, place him on ignore. That way, their weenie sensibilities can remain unaltered and unencumbered. Personally I feel posts like his have always been a part of the board's charm. They're actually no different than the dreary model chasing posts or someone saying "looks like an active pattern could be in the works sometime within the next 3 weeks".
  15. January Banter String

    That's a snow sounding. There is no supercooled water in that sounding since ice nuclei are present within the favored crystal growth layer (-12C to -20C).