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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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4 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I mean what are the time frames for first half and second half. Are you talking about the ULL moving through Monday, or are you talking about Sunday afternoon?

No, not the ULL...I'm talking on Sunday.  0 deg is roughly along NC/SC border early Sun, then bisects the state west to east midday, then it moves NW to western NC Sun aftn

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

No, not the ULL...I'm talking on Sunday.  0 deg is roughly along NC/SC border early Sun, then bisects the state west to east midday, then it moves NW to western NC Sun aftn

That's warmer than the 12z, then, which keeps us around 0 until late afternoon/early evening.

What are the snow totals for central NC looking like before the changeover?

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The EC was used and weighted along with some GFS/CMC fields. The NAM profiles were not incorporated as it was deemed too warm at h85 and was an outlier, but will be watched for further trends. In my personal experience the NAM normally does quite well with the warm nose in this area.
Thanks,@isohume. I appreciate you being willing to answer questions in here from time to time.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

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49 minutes ago, isohume said:

The EC was used and weighted along with some GFS/CMC fields. The NAM profiles were not incorporated as it was deemed too warm at h85 and was an outlier, but will be watched for further trends. In my personal experience the NAM normally does quite well with the warm nose in this area.

I was quite surprised the nam's  profiles were dismissed as i'm sure many were because of that.  Interesting decision. 

33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Bullish as always

47572992_1977173735663208_47932827418503

i love how he has athens being marked in elbert county instead of where it's really at, clarke. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I was quite surprised the nam's  profiles were dismissed as i'm sure many were for that reason.   Interesting decision. 

i love how he has athens being marked in elbert county instead of where it's really at, clarke. 

And apparently Chattanooga is in the Central Time Zone now.

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I remember closing in on the Feb 2014 event that the upper layers started coming in colder as the medium range models came in play. I don't remember exactly how far out though. Being 54 hrs out or so now you would think tonight at Oz something need to start happening and definitely by 12z tomorrow. If not I think it'll be a lot of heartbreak come go time for the 85 camp. You can't go into one of these storms being modeled on the edge. Cutoff most likely ends up nw of where modeled.

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9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I was quite surprised the nam's  profiles were dismissed as i'm sure many were because of that.  Interesting decision. 

i love how he has athens being marked in elbert county instead of where it's really at, clarke. 

It will likely be included in the next few fcsts if it looks to trend right. Its not always on to something. 

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4 minutes ago, isohume said:

It will likely be included in the next few fcsts if it looks to trend right. Its not always on to something. 

With Euro being the most consistent model for this storm will credence be given to that model going forward? Considering it’s in the euro wheel house right now. Thanks for answering these for us!

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I'm pretty shocked at some of the high totals I see for Wake from some of the mets that are usually conservative.  I am not making a map because I really only forecast for the Wake area.  If I did, I would have 1-3" of snow for Wake, 3" in the NW and 1" in SE.  
My reasons:  Medium range models show temperatures borderline and warm in Central NC.  Soundings also show a very borderline event with a warm nose at times.  It is very hard to overcome the warm once it is there.  Mixing and wet snow will cut down on ratios considerably.  

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

With Euro being the most consistent model for this storm will credence be given to that model going forward? Considering it’s in the euro wheel house right now. Thanks for answering these for us!

Each forecaster has their own take on what's working better, but yeah the EC will be given good weight I imagine.  

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9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

With Euro being the most consistent model for this storm will credence be given to that model going forward? Considering it’s in the euro wheel house right now. Thanks for answering these for us!

Euro and FV3 have both been very consistent with their outputs the last two days.

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6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

@isohume if you get us a foot of snow, I’ll find the Vikings a kicker that can’t miss. 

 

Seriously though, not jealous of y’all tonight. What a mess of a situation to try and hash out.

Lol, deal!! Its been a three-ring circus at the office and it wont get better. The phone traffic alone is dizzying. 

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

More than enough to digest while we wait for the 0z party to start here:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120618.htm

I read the Whole Blog.. Nice thinking Outside the Box, considering the "upstream" ramifactions on Our Local Weather..  Thoughts on this  @griteater?? 

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21 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I remember closing in on the Feb 2014 event that the upper layers started coming in colder as the medium range models came in play. I don't remember exactly how far out though. Being 54 hrs out or so now you would think tonight at Oz something need to start happening and definitely by 12z tomorrow. If not I think it'll be a lot of heartbreak come go time for the 85 camp. You can't go into one of these storms being modeled on the edge. Cutoff most likely ends up nw of where modeled.

I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive.  There was zero doubt as to if it would get there.  As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I remember that event because it was so easy to forecast for ATL bexause the wedge was so massive.  There was zero doubt as to if it would get there.  As it turned out it was so strong they saw mostly PL instead of FZRA 

Yeah unfortunately I feel this one may be different. No where near the strong cold push and that was Feb. There was no doubt about the cold with that storm. Just precip types.

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