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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, CaryWx said:

With all due respect (and I lived and died on that 1/2017 storm) we still aren't in the NAM wheelhouse yet.  That said this one does have that look.

Indeed... Been NAM'd many a storms that were outside 54 hours.

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

They aren't hi-res models that usually do well sniffing out mid-level warming. I'll weigh the NAM heavily with this one.

The long range NAM? You’re going to die on a hill with the long range NAM?

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

It looks wrong to me, plus you need ice nuclei for sleet just like you do snow (so you need saturation in DGZ for both)...that's my understanding

Nope, not the same. Snow requires saturation in the -12C through -17C layer. Sleet does not. 

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If you extrapolate the HiRes Nam its a big sleet and ice storm for central NC after snow. Probably 6 to 8 of snow in GSO to HKY north. Over a foot in Boone to Roanoke

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

If you extrapolate the HiRes Nam its a big sleet and ice storm for central NC after snow. Probably 6 to 8 of snow in GSO to HKY north. Over a foot in Boone to Roanoke

I agree, I think it looks very ICON like. It won’t take a large shift for this to look GFS like either.

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This will be a 2-part post Image heavy..

I hope thishelps..

18Z GFSFV# run(ing).. Says 84% complete)

I took it out to Hour 72 in all images.. 

 

72.JPG

72precip.JPG

72850.JPG

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I think we can all agree that the extended ranges of the NAM are suspect and that it’s snow map on TT is ridiculous.  But there is going to be warming aloft here.  And it will be warmer and more extensive than the globals are showing.  For many in central NC, assuming we don’t have a convection moisture robbing situation (which is possible), there is going to be a lot of sleet and ZR, even back into the Triad and into parts of VA.

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9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah sorry about that... "for VA".

Nah, for everyone. It was a much better look than 12z and 18z and what we really needed was just for it to stop trending in the wrong direction.

I mean I guess the ice isn't a look everyone wants but just as far as having a winter storm we were another couple NAM warmups away from this being all rain outside of the mountains.

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I HOPE the above Images give folks some Hope, I assume this is the "onset" of the Storm.. 72 Hours out.. I tried to get All the Relevant Images.. 

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I think we can all agree that the extended ranges of the NAM are suspect and that it’s snow map on TT is ridiculous.  But there is going to be warming aloft here.  And it will be warmer and more extensive than the global scare showing.  For many in central NC, assuming we don’t have a convection moisture robbing situation (which is possible), there is going to be a lot of sleet and ZR, even back into the Triad and into parts of VA.

Warm nose will almost definitely be more extensive than on global models. But I’d also say with the NAM now trending better with high placement and a little more cold that especially for areas further west it may not yet have a complete handle on exactly how the CAD is going to play out. So I think there’s going to be some give and take as we move forward on NAM runs, warm nose is absolutely going to rob some places while others may improve if the wedge keeps showing up better on further runs. 

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13 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Then I can't explain why it would show "sleet and snow" with that sounding.

Absolutely fascinating and quite honestly, I learned something valuable.  Made the last 5 days of sleep deprivation and storm prep all worth it!

Belated thanks Isohume!

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freezing rain profile.. out to 57, ,, I'm just trying  help ya'll folks out here.. Honestly.. use these in addition to the Maps posted above..

zr.JPG

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

RGEM through 72 keeps 850 below freezing whole time for triad. For what uts worrh

Over to hickory as well? 

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