cardinalland Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies That would be great, tellies sounds very weird and I don’t like it... maybe we can say Tconns if really short on time or just say teleconnections. It looks like it will become warmer and then it will become cool again around 11/27 or 11/28. I don’t think we’ll see any more snow this month but I think that 12/3 to 12/10 is a time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30 - December 10th Snow is likely due to the source region of the cold air and the - 3 SD block. I fixed your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern looks quite locked and loaded by November 29/30. The only thing working against us is climo (averages are almost 50F). Also I wouldn't be surprised to see the systems next week trend south as the strong -NAO begins to exert its influence. Test Gfs strongly suggests that possibility. However snow would still be unlikely due to a lack of cold air. Why would we have a lack of cold air if we have a strong -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: Why would we have a lack of cold air if we have a strong -NAO? It’s always plenty cold by the end of November in Canada. I wouldn’t worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 32 minutes ago, TriPol said: Why would we have a lack of cold air if we have a strong -NAO? This is for the storms after Thanksgiving and prior to the Nov 29 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s always plenty cold by the end of November in Canada. I wouldn’t worry about that. agree-if we remember back to 12/5/03, there was a torch in the week before, we got the -NAO/-AO and cold poured in and 15 inches of snow later.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: agree-if we remember back to 12/5/03, there was a torch in the week before, we got the -NAO/-AO and cold poured in and 15 inches of snow later.... It also melted right away... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, North and West said: It also melted right away... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ yep-gone in a 4-5 with a massive cutter that followed...but that's life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 Quick coating with the arctic front Wednesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 19, 2018 Share Posted November 19, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Quick coating with the arctic front Wednesday night? Looks like the FV3 says starts as rain especially the coast but finishes as snow,,,,,but that is tomorrow night and not the front on Wednesday ,,,,,any one care to add insight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Gorgeous retrogression of the current record block north of Iceland to around Baffin Island/Greenland in about 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Wow weeklies are cold throughout December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: agree-if we remember back to 12/5/03, there was a torch in the week before, we got the -NAO/-AO and cold poured in and 15 inches of snow later.... Biggest storm of the winter, but we had a lot of decent events later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 5 hours ago, North and West said: It also melted right away... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Hey, they usually do. In the best winters more falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Gorgeous retrogression of the current record block north of Iceland to around Baffin Island/Greenland in about 10 days. What does this mean?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 29 minutes ago, North and West said: What does this mean? . Slower and bigger storms. Definitely snowier and colder or drier and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 It's bad if you like nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Wow weeklies are cold throughout December If the Pacific and Atlantic blocking decide to take a break, I hope it occurs between 12/10-12/22. I do not want another Grinch storm / blowtorch for Christmas like it has been for 3 of the last 5 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Let’s just ban that awul word. Hes talking about teleconnections. Tellies sounds like he’s talking about the telletubbies or TVs for Brits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 40degs., or about 4degs. BN. Month to date is -1.7[47.8]. Should be -2.3[45.5] by the 28th. The earliest we could see Snow again here would be Dec. 4-7, according to the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Earliest 0 on record for Caribou, Maine. New record low temperature set at Caribou for Nov 19...0 degrees breaks the old record of 1 set in 1992 and marks the earliest zero or lower reading on record. Houlton also set a daily minimum record with a -8 reading breaking the old record of 1 set in 1992. #mewx 6:44 AM - 19 Nov 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: Earliest 0 on record for Caribou, Maine. New record low temperature set at Caribou for Nov 19...0 degrees breaks the old record of 1 set in 1992 and marks the earliest zero or lower reading on record. Houlton also set a daily minimum record with a -8 reading breaking the old record of 1 set in 1992. #mewx 6:44 AM - 19 Nov 2018 Several NE stations also set coldest so early last Nov around the 10th, then may do it again on Thurs-Fri, in addition to the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 51 minutes ago, doncat said: Several NE stations also set coldest so early last Nov around the 10th, then may do it again on Thurs-Fri, in addition to the above. Record cold during November at any of our major climate stations can be an indicator of further near to record cold at some point from December to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 the last time NYC got measurable snow in November and a cold wave with temps in the teens was in 1987...before that was in 1955...1967 came close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Local records for the coming Arctic outbreak. Record low temperatures for Thu Nov 22: Central Park.....13 (1880) LaGuardia........21 (1987) Kennedy..........20 (1987) Newark...........19 (1987) Bridgeport.......18 (1987) Islip............20 (1987) Record low maximum temperatures for Thu Nov 22: Central Park.....23 (1880) LaGuardia........31 (1972) Kennedy..........34 (2008)* Newark...........33 (1949) Bridgeport.......30 (1972) Islip............31 (2008) Record low temperatures for Fri Nov 23: Central Park.....14 (1880) LaGuardia........23 (1972) Kennedy..........25 (2008)* Newark...........21 (1932) Bridgeport.......16 (1972) Islip............13 (1989) *also occurred in previous years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Record cold during November at any of our major climate stations is sometimes an indicator of further near to record cold at some point DJFM. Mentioned this over at the MidAtlantic forum. This upcoming cold blast is the second one to occur in our areas in the past 5 weeks where some of the coldest air on the globe, negative anomaly-wise, was centered in the NE part of the country. I really feel snow cover has a lot to do with this so far. And, more snow cover is forecasted going forward. Bundle up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 11 hours ago, Hailstorm said: If the Pacific and Atlantic blocking decide to take a break, I hope it occurs between 12/10-12/22. I do not want another Grinch storm / blowtorch for Christmas like it has been for 3 of the last 5 winters. I don't know about that, there's something to be said for mt biking in shorts and short sleeves when it's 60* on Christmas. That something is good, trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 November's warm start is now a fading memory. A sustained period of much below normal readings has already led to a negative month-to-date anomaly. A storm also brought significant early-season snow to much of the region. Already, amounts in many parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England areas are running well above normal. Select seasonal snowfall amounts through November 19: Albany: 7.3” (5.9” above normal) Allentown: 8.1” (7.9” above normal) Baltimore: 1.7” (1.6” above normal) Binghamton: 18.3” (14.7” above normal) Boston: 0.1” (0.3” below normal) Detroit: 5.0” (4.4” above normal) Harrisburg: 8.8” (8.7” above normal) Hartford: 7.9” (7.0” above normal) Islip: 4.3” (4.2” above normal) New York City: 6.4” (6.3” above normal) Newark: 6.4” (6.3” above normal) Philadelphia: 3.6” (3.5” above normal) Portland: 7.3” (6.6” above normal) Providence: 6.0” (5.5” above normal) Scranton: 11.0” (9.3” above normal) Washington, DC: 1.4” (1.2” above normal) Courtesy of unseasonably expansive snowcover in Canada, an Arctic shot could bring some of the coldest November readings in perhaps three decades to parts of the region Thursday and Friday. The MOS currently forecasts cities such as Islip, New York, and Newark to have a minimum temperature below 20° during the upcoming cold shot. Select MOS Forecasts: Albany: 1° (last November occurrence: November 26, 1938: -11°) – only 5 dates with lows of 5° or below on record (records go back to 1874) Bridgeport: 14° (would set a new monthly record) Islip: 13° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 11°) New York City: 16° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 16°) Newark: 15° (last November occurrence: November 29, 1955: 15°) Poughkeepsie: 6° (last November occurrence: November 24, 1989: 3°) White Plains: 12° (would set a new monthly record) Even if the MOS is too cold by several degrees, the upcoming Arctic blast will be among the more impressive November cold shots since 2000. Overall, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied probability of 89% that New York City will have a colder than normal November. Some implied probabilities for select monthly mean temperatures for November are as follows: Below 46°: 71% (last occurrence: 2014 45.3°) Below 45°: 56% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°) Below 44°: 40% (last occurrence: 2012: 43.9°) Most likely range: 43.8° - 45.4° Finally, the forecast strong Atlantic blocking is now evolving. The preliminary daily values for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are -1.303 and -0.697. The ensembles continue to suggest that the AO will likely fall to -4.500 to -3.500 and the NAO will likely fall to -1.500 to -1.000 in coming days. Such severe blocking at this time of year has often been a precursor to a blocky winter. All said, things remain on course for a potentially cold and very snowy winter in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 40 minutes ago, frd said: Mentioned this over at the MidAtlantic forum. This upcoming cold blast is the second one to occur in our areas in the past 5 weeks where some of the coldest air on the globe, negative anomaly-wise, was centered in the NE part of the country. I really feel snow cover has a lot to do with this so far. And, more snow cover is forecasted going forward. Bundle up ! I believe it's a function of the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents pattern. Lingering summer warmth this decade into September and October. Followed by a flip to cold in November. The only fall colder than normal months during the 2010's around NYC are in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 20, 2018 Share Posted November 20, 2018 Friday morning will probably severely bust MOS low temps. It’s nearly the same setup as Tuesday morning last week when the ridge axis came overhead and JFK dropped to 31 with a MOS forecast lows of 39 and 40. I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of LI got close to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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