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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

no snow squall warning from upton

I dont think it was needed, it was through so quickly, roads didnt even get covered for more than a minute or so. But for that short time it was very heavy, visibility was a few hundred feet. 

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In eastern Bergen County the squall just came through and it was all snow even though RadarScope had it depicted as a mix. Anyone west of city, and the city may be included in that, will have heavy snow for 5 min if it continues to hold together

edit: now radarscope has it as all snow and it’s pretty robust. I think Upton should upgrade to a Snow Squall Warning for the whole area that the squall encompasses  

 

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow, the city put down an incredible amount of salt on Broadway. Piles on each corner. It’s going to lovely when it’s blowing around tomorrow. I’m still in the process of doing the leaf cleanup here too. Not using a blower anywhere near that. CAA defenitly kicking in now...

lol i came to post the same thing. Salt/plow trucks driving around. If ppl blamed the city for the chaos we had then they gotta accept the salt storm for every chance of a flurry.

1-3" salt forecast overnight. Salt drifts in spots 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Next few days will be one of those rare occasions when the coldest departures in the Northern Hemisphere get focused into our area. Otherwise, it's mostly a sea of warm departures  across the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.

gfs_world-ced_t2anom_1-day.thumb.png.b9e46c8b7aa19a41f3f24772de6898d1.png

 

Didn't we have this same type of scenario in 2014?   I believe the "ice cube in a warm bath" analogy was used

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP had 65.9 inches of snow last winter following the record cold last November around the area. While the 70's and 80's were a much colder era than the present, they had much less snowfall. So when we approach cold temperature records from that era, heavier 2010's snowfall climo must be used. ISP also had record cold in November 2014 with 63.7 of snow for the season.

 

Chris, we're getting much more precip now year round.  Even 1960s analogs should be used with caution.  I firmly believe we need to stick with 2000- as far as analogs are concerned.  2010-11 was the exception where we had to go to the deep past to find a moderate to strong la nina that was so blocky and snowy.

 

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34 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What?

It's not even winter yet

What I was trying to say was that it seems to me as though you have been on a bit of a hot streak seeing snowstorms before they materialize and when others discount the possibility---And I hope this doesn't continue this year---technically its not winter, I am aware, how about things changing back to a warm bias?

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4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What is the cause of this radical change?

warmer SST offshore causing storms that would ordinarily pass well offshore to come closer to the coast and big increase in 3+" liquid storms all across the continent with much higher levels of moisture than what we had back in the 70s and 80s.

Also much slower moving storms with record levels of blocking in various parts of the hemisphere.

 

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22 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What I was trying to say was that it seems to me as though you have been on a bit of a hot streak seeing snowstorms before they materialize and when others discount the possibility---And I hope this doesn't continue this year---technically its not winter, I am aware, how about things changing back to a warm bias?

Warm bias for what? Are you trolling or not even looking at the pattern ahead?

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

warmer SST offshore causing storms that would ordinarily pass well offshore to come closer to the coast and big increase in 3+" liquid storms all across the continent with much higher levels of moisture than what we had back in the 70s and 80s.

Also much slower moving storms with record levels of blocking in various parts of the hemisphere.

 

Thank you for the explanation.  I appreciate it

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