November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

The 1st week of December looks ripe for a snowstorm

Of course it's all about timing

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, 1989 rearing its ugly head again lol

I wouldn't be overly concerned about a 1989-1990-style repeat. There's a lot that's different this time around i.e., ENSO, SSTAs, etc.

[dmillz25]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Logan is surrounded by water east of downtown Boston.  That measurement is believable, assuming it's not a typo.  I noted a trace on the beach vs an inch and a half on the ground a quarter mile inland on the north shore of LI during the first part of the snowfall.  "Load of crap" is a tad harsh.

 

There was a measurement in the NE thread from someone who lives less than a mile from the airport and they received 1.7”

[North and West]

I wouldn't be overly concerned about a 1989-1990-style repeat. There's a lot that's different this time around i.e., ENSO, SSTAs, etc.

I *vividly* remember that winter when I was 7. Awesome cold... and then playing outside in February and record highs.


.

[uncle W]

the Novembers that had 6" or more in NYC averaged 1.5" in December...I think this December will raise that average...

[sferic]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I wouldn't be overly concerned about a 1989-1990-style repeat. There's a lot that's different this time around i.e., ENSO, SSTAs, etc.

December 1989 at Central Park had the unique honor of having each of its 31 days with a low of 32 or lower. I do not believe that has happened in any month Don, has it?

[uncle W]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

December 1989 at Central Park had the unique honor of having each of its 31 days with a low of 32 or lower. I do not believe that has happened in any month Don, has it?

Dec. 1989 is the only December with all 31 days at a minimum of 32 or lower...Jan. 1977 was the last January to have 31 days 32 or lower mins...

year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr.tot days/con. max/consecutive

2017-18......0.......4.....16.....22.....12.....13.......2.....69...17.....21...14

2016-17......0.......0.....11.....12.....12.....14.......0.....49.....8.....11.....3

2015-16......0.......1.......0.....21.....14.......7.......3.....46.....9.....10.....4

2014-15......0.......7.......9.....25.....28.....16.......1.....86...38.....26.....5

2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19.......1.....93...16.....33.....7

2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60...11.....15.....6

2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37.....5.......6.....2

2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83...18.....22.....4

 

2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63...23.....17.....3

2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86...26.....22.....3

2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62...14.......6.....2

2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63...36.....18.....6

2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67...14.......9.....2

2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71...29.....18.....9

2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78...20.....26.....9

2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86...22.....31...12

2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47...12.......3.....2

2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89...22.....20...13

 

1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56...28.....18.....7

1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52...18.....13.....3

1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49.....4.......3.....2

1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69...14.....11.....3

1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89...15.....30.....9

1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60...14.....11.....5

1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84...26.....31.....5

1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80...22.......7.....3

1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68...14.......9.....2

1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54.....8.......7.....1

 

1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74...33.....19.....9

1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71...11.....19.....3

1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72...16.....19.....7

1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74...19.....11.....5

1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74...12.....19.....4

1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69...35.....18.....5

1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67...19.....29.....8

1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53...12.....13.....4

1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77...24.....20.....6

1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79...24.....30...11

 

1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70...31.....19.....5

1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68...22.....26...11

1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87...22.....42...12

1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96...51.....45.....9

1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76...26.....20.....3

1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75...17.......8.....2

1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76...15.....23.....3

1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57.....9.....13.....4

1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78...11.....17.....5

1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78...16.....25.....5

 

1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97...45.....27.....6

1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82...27.....18.....3

1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87...27.....22.....9

1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86...15.....25.....6

1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67...17.....14.....2

1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79...27.....22.....5

1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75...22.....18.....7

1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82...21.....29.....7

1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78...16.....16.....4

1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78...26.....27...16

 

1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88...20.....15.....3

1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93...23.....26...10

1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59...17.....20...12

1956-57......0.......7.....12.....26.....19.......9.......0.....73...12.....12.....6

1955-56......0.......8.....26.....25.....16.....17.......0.....92...19.....23.....4

1954-55......0.......1.....17.....28.....17.....14.......0.....77...33.....16.....4

1953-54......0.......1.......9.....26.....10.....13.......3.....62...16.....15.....4

1952-53......0.......2.....12.....19.....16.......9.......0.....58.....8.......2.....1

1951-52......0.....11.....19.....20.....19.....14.......0.....83...19.....13.....3

1950-51......0.......3.....19.....19.....17.......9.......0.....67...18.....12.....3

 

1949-50......0.......5.....16.....12.....21.....21.......8.....83...18.....12.....3

1948-49......0.......0.....14.....17.....16.....15.......0.....62.....9.......9.....4

1947-48......0.......4.....25.....29.....24.....13.......1.....96...26.....33...10

1946-47......0.......2.....16.....18.....26.....20.......0.....82...18.....12.....5

1945-46......0.......6.....24.....22.....24.......3.......0.....79...18.....24.....9

1944-45......0.......5.....23.....30.....22.......6.......0.....84...36.....25.....5

1943-44......0.......7.....22.....24.....23.....16.......4.....96...16.....17.....3

1942-43......0.......5.....24.....26.....20.....12.......9.....96...13.....29.....5

1941-42......0.......1.....14.....24.....25.......0.......0.....64...16.....19.....6

1940-41......2.......7.....17.....26.....25.....24.......0...101...14.....16.....4

 

1939-40......0.......6.....16.....28.....22.....23.......4.....99...20.....29.....6

1938-39......0.......6.....19.....21.....15.....17.......2.....80...17.....18.....4

1937-38......0.......4.....18.....24.....18.....11.......2.....77...15.....16.....4

1936-37......2.....13.....15.....14.....22.....19.......0.....85...12.....10.....2

1935-36......0.......3.....21.....23.....25.......7.......1.....80...31.....39...12

1934-35......0.......3.....21.....22.....21.....11.......1.....79...12.....24.....5

1933-34......2.....12.....16.....20.....28.....21.......0.....99...36.....38.....9

1932-33......0.......7.....13.....11.....20.....11.......0.....62...11.....13.....4

1931-32......0.......3.....17.......4.....17.....18.......1.....60...12.......5.....2

1930-31......0.......7.....18.....21.....20.......9.......0.....75...15.....12.....3

 

1929-30......0.......5.....18.....20.....18.....10.......2.....73...12.....25.....8

1928-29......1.......3.....14.....27.....19.......8.......0.....72...18.....15.....4

1927-28......0.......4.....17.....19.....20.....18.......1.....79...15.....20.....5

1926-27......0.......7.....28.....23.....16.....10.......0.....84...14.....24.....6

1925-26......3.......9.....19.....21.....25.....20.......5...102...11.....27.....4

1924-25......0.......9.....22.....30.....13.......7.......2.....83...32.....22.....2

1923-24......0.......3.....10.....24.....28.....16.......2.....83...29.....17.....4

1922-23......0.......9.....20.....28.....26.....20.......4...107...24.....31.....6

1921-22......0.......4.....23.....28.....19.....12.......1.....87...13.....23.....6

1920-21......0.......5.....19.....21.....21.......4.......1.....71.....9.....10.....2

 

1919-20......0.......6.....26.....30.....27.....16.......4...109...25.....40.....7

1918-19......0.......3.....16.....17.....19.......9.......4.....68...12.......7.....3

1917-18......1.......7.....29.....31.....19.....12.......2...101...44.....45...10

1916-17......0.......6.....21.....22.....25.....15.......2.....91...20.....26.....6

1915-16......0.......3.....25.....20.....27.....23.......1.....99...47.....37.....6

1914-15......0.......9.....26.....21.....16.....23.......2.....97...25.....23.....7

1913-14......0.......2.....14.....22.....25.....19.......5.....77...38.....26.....7

1912-13......0.......4.....14.....15.....22.......9.......0.....64...15.....16.....6

1911-12......0.......8.....11.....30.....25.....16.......2.....92...26.....39.....8

1910-11......0.......2.....28.....18.....25.....19.......3.....95...18.....31.....5

 

1909-10......0.......1.....22.....25.....24.....10.......0.....82...19.....26.....6

1908-09......0.......5.....17.....19.....13.....16.......2.....72...10.....11.....2

1907-08......0.......0.......9.....25.....26.....14.......3.....77...22.....18.....4

1906-07......0.......2.....21.....17.....25.....12.......3.....80...17.....28.....5

1905-06......0.......5.....15.....12.....17.....22.......1.....72...15.....10.....2

1904-05......0.......5.....28.....25.....27.....13.......0.....98...30.....40.....8

1903-04......0.....11.....24.....29.....28.....19.......6...117...28.....47.....5

1902-03......0.......0.....20.....23.....19.......4.......2.....68...13.....23.....6

1901-02......0.....10.....15.....29.....24.......6.......0.....84...32.....34.....6

1900-01......0.......3.....16.....22.....28.....14.......0.....83...32.....30.....6

 

1899-00......0.......2.....15.....24.....22.....26.......5.....94...21.....22.....8

1898-99......0.......7.....17.....23.....20.....14.......6.....87...21.....23.....9

1897-98......0.......5.....16.....16.....13.......4.......5.....59...15.....12.....3

1896-97......0.......2.....19.....22.....18.....12.......2.....75...15.....24.....8

1895-96......0.......3.....17.....26.....22.....24.......5.....97...19.....31.....7

1894-95......0.......9.....12.....26.....27.....25.......3...102...41.....35.....9

1893-94......0.......9.....24.....25.....22.......8.......4.....92...14.....16.....3

1892-93......0.......9.....17.....30.....26.....18.......0...100...38.....41...13

1891-92......0.......6.....10.....26.....18.....21.......2.....83...13.....21.....3

1890-91......0.......7.....26.....21.....16.....15.......6.....92...11.....23.....4..... 1 min in May

 

1889-90......1.......6.....11.....21.....15.....19.......3.....76...10.....15.....3

1888-89......0.......9.....21.....17.....26.....11.......0.....84...20.....15.....3

1887-88......2.......8.....20.....31.....24.....23.......4...110...45.....44.....7

1886-87......0.......7.....24.....26.....22.....28.......8...115...28.....33.....5

1885-86......0.......6.....23.....25.....21.....15.......1.....91...22.....29...10

1884-85......0.......5.....16.....25.....28.....25.......3...102...34.....38.....8

1883-84......0.......9.....23.....28.....21.....15.......1.....97...16.....35.....6

1882-83......0.....14.....24.....29.....26.....25.......3...121...32.....39.....6

1881-82......0.......7.....13.....22.....19.....15.......4.....80...13.....21.....5

1880-81......0.....13.....27.....31.....24.....15.......6...111...56.....52...15

 

1879-80......2.....10.....18.....14.....18.....20.......5.....87...11.....12.....2

1878-79......0.......4.....22.....30.....26.....15.......4...101...43.....35.....6

1877-78......0.......8.....18.....22.....19.......7.......0.....74...12.....21.....6

1876-77......1.......2.....29.....29.....12.....18.......2.....93...23.....41.....9

[sferic]

Thanks Uncle !

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I *vividly* remember that winter when I was 7. Awesome cold... and then playing outside in February and record highs.


.

We did manage some snow in March and April that year and an 85 in mid March

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

I *vividly* remember that winter when I was 7. Awesome cold... and then playing outside in February and record highs.


.

I do, too.

[donsutherland1]

49 minutes ago, sferic said:

December 1989 at Central Park had the unique honor of having each of its 31 days with a low of 32 or lower. I do not believe that has happened in any month Don, has it?

Uncle W beat me to it.

[SnowGoose69]

Oddly enough December 1989 has no record low mins or record low maxes at all for Central Park yet it’s the coldest December on record 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

There was a measurement in the NE thread from someone who lives less than a mile from the airport and they received 1.7”

That’s the whole point though. Logan is right on the water and on a peninsula where as the rest of Boston is behind it just inland. In that setup it’s totally reasonable. 

[SnoSki14]

OP runs now showing a big ridge trying to form in the east to start December with -NAO blocking breaking down.

A radical change from two days ago. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I got 3 inches the whole winter

What a terrible winter

and the predictions were for a great winter and neg nao and all that- glad to see that November at least is radically different from that season.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Oddly enough December 1989 has no record low mins or record low maxes at all for Central Park yet it’s the coldest December on record 

thats weird- was it Philly that had 34 straight days below freezing?

 

Snow wise I remember a bunch of very small clippers and one missed big event that rained when it supposed to snow lol.  Matched the previous February, except then we got virga instead of snow.  In both cases we were supposed to get 8-12 inches.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

OP runs now showing a big ridge trying to form in the east to start December with -NAO blocking breaking down.

A radical change from two days ago. 

no snow on Nov 29 and Dec 2?

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

We did manage some snow in March and April that year and an 85 in mid March

I remember that lol.  Tshirts and Bermuda shorts in mid March and then snow in early April lol

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, uncle W said:

the Novembers that had 6" or more in NYC averaged 1.5" in December...I think this December will raise that average...

thats crazy, how many Novembers in that dataset? and the average Dec snowfall was less than 2" wow

[LibertyBell]

Feb 2015 was the last time we had every min below freezing in a month.

[BlueDXer75]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

OP runs now showing a big ridge trying to form in the east to start December with -NAO blocking breaking down.

A radical change from two days ago. 

The FV-3 GFS has little to no warm up compared to the GFS

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 5degs. BN.

Month to date is -1.8[47.6].      Should be -2.7[45.1] by the 29th.

Meanwhile it is 38 here at 6am.     Should be 20 this same time tomorrow.

Looks like all the wet periods the next 15 days have AN temps. and rain for us.    So the beautiful cold goes to waste.

[tim]

20 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Friday morning will probably severely bust MOS low temps.  It’s nearly the same setup as Tuesday morning last week when the ridge axis came overhead and JFK dropped to 31 with a MOS forecast lows of 39 and 40.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some parts of LI got close to 5.  

...ideal radiational cooling conditions for thurs. nite/friday morning..according to NWS

latest forecast discussion..they have a low of 5* for KFOK friday morning..i'm thinking i should achieve

a single digit low also..

[Neblizzard]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 39degs., or about 5degs. BN.

Month to date is -1.8[47.6].      Should be -2.7[45.1] by the 29th.

Meanwhile it is 38 here at 6am.     Should be 20 this same time tomorrow.

Looks like all the wet periods the next 15 days have AN temps. and rain for us.    So the beautiful cold goes to waste.

You trust the models 15 days out ? We’ll see how that pans out going forward.  I always liked after New Years and beyond for this upcoming winter 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, tim said:

...ideal radiational cooling conditions for thurs. nite/friday morning..according to NWS

latest forecast discussion..they have a low of 5* for KFOK friday morning..i'm thinking i should achieve

a single digit low also..

What kind of barometric pressures are we looking at?  I think the Arctic High will pass right overhead?

[doncat]

Just hoping for a 16° low by Friday  am to break my station's Nov record low.

[doncat]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What kind of barometric pressures are we looking at?  I think the Arctic High will pass right overhead?

Looks to be around 1037mb.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember Isotherm did some research on this before, but very cold Novembers actually seem to be negatively correlated with snowy winters- I hope that doesn't happen this time.  Considering how November 1987 and 1989 went and the winters that came after that.

 

ISP had 65.9 inches of snow last winter following the record cold last November around the area. While the 70's and 80's were a much colder era than the present, they had much less snowfall. So when we approach cold temperature records from that era, heavier 2010's snowfall climo must be used. ISP also had record cold in November 2014 with 63.7 of snow for the season.

 

[495weatherguy]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

ISP had 65.9 inches of snow last winter following the record cold last November around the area. While the 70's and 80's were a much colder era than the present, they had much less snowfall. So when we approach cold temperature records from that era, heavier 2010's snowfall climo must be used. ISP also had record cold in November 2014 with 63.7 of snow for the season.

 

[495weatherguy]

I’m still shocked how the weather has turned from the 1970’s and 1980’s.   Snow was so rare then