Hailstorm

GEFS continues the theme of diminishing the longevity and strength of the Southwest Ridge between 06/26-06/29. It even hints at a backdoor trough trying to form over the Northeast as we approach July 4th. If this trend continues, I think it is more likely than not that Central Park ends up with a below-normal June. If this happens, then it would be the only below-normal May-June couplet in many years.

I recall many posters on another board expected us to have a "torch" March, April and May after last winter's debacle. That never materialized and we may even finish June below normal pending on the outcome for the second half of this month. I would not bank on a warmer-than-normal summer for us. This current spring reminds me a lot about what transpired in 2009 - and we all know what happened with that summer. Can anyone share the statistic for the latest date of a 90-degree day at Central Park in any given summer? It would be appreciated.

How so? It's Christmas. Nice time to be festive as we come closer the much-anticipated wintry period.

It's very promising that at the end of the 12z GEFS run, we are seeing it resemble Monday night's Euro weeklies to an extent. Notice how we are seeing higher heights in the Greenland area, which start to extend towards the AO and EPO region as we head into January:

Just for giggles and entertainment (but unlikely to happen), take a look at this '93 redux fantasy Northeast bomb / blizzard on the recent FV3 model towards New Year's. I'd pay $500 for that to materialize just to see how all those tourists will react in the middle of a fierce snow blitz during the Times Square ball drop.

Agreed. They have been very erratic lately and I instead would defer to the Euro seasonal monthlies which tend to be less volatile.

I'm surprised the ensembles were not posted today. GEFS and GEPS look great, at least for cold, on/after 12/21. A little bit of a WAR setting up offshore which can amplify storms closer to the East Coast:

I think chances are somewhat higher than normal for a white Christmas this year. Look at how the 18z GFS changed from its 12z run. It now shows extensive cross-polar flow for the northern half of the USA, with a humongous -EPO, -AO and east-based NAO. Ideally, we would want a bit of a less suppressed look than what is shown in the image below; however, it will inevitably change as we get closer in time. New run: Old run:

18z GEFS actually suggests a favorable pattern manifests itself for us at the end of next week (22nd), well before Christmas.

Very detailed and thought-provoking analysis! The latest Euro weeklies that were released tonight depicted a pervasive cross-polar flow from Siberia developing during mid-January. If that scenario verifies, would it be reasonable to ponder that January 2019 can finish with <5 temp departure for NYC, considering the record snow cover, low solar and all the other factors mentioned in your winter outlook? I would love that to play out because NYC desperately needs to set new record low maximums and minimums during winter, lol.

Weather Channel forecast for NYC between December 5th-12th is very reminiscent of December 2013. It has 8 straight days of high temps remaining in the 30s. We all know how the Winter of 2013-2014 played out, so let's hope it comes to fruition. Dec 2013 High Mean Low

The question now becomes: Can Central Park tie or break its 14-degree record low set on the 23rd? It's now 18 degrees in the park.

If the Pacific and Atlantic blocking decide to take a break, I hope it occurs between 12/10-12/22. I do not want another Grinch storm / blowtorch for Christmas like it has been for 3 of the last 5 winters.

Hopefully, we can put those NYC record low maxes of 23 and 25 in play for the 22nd and 23rd, respectively. From what I recall, the 12z EURO/GFS hints that NYC may not rise above the mid 20s for highs during one of those days. In other news, it looks like the NWS is sticking to its guns for a warmer-than-normal winter for a majority of the USA in its updated winter outlook, surprisingly:

Don, that is a very insightful and constructive outlook as usual. It looks like you are predicting that the core of the cold anomalies will be centered in the OH / TN valleys. Is there any probability that the core of those negative departures can shift more towards the Northeast if the Aluetian low / -EPO ridge adjusts eastward? I mention this because those are very significant cold anomalies shown on the maps.

I am optimistic that we will see a 1/3/2014-type powdery snowstorm with frigid temps (single digits) this winter season. Those are my favorite types of storms. NYC becomes eerily quiet and very few people roam the streets.

Yes, I submitted my personal e-mail address to them and got a username and password within 48 hours.

I would assume the proximity to another large body of water (Jamaica Bay) would account for the extra surge in Southern Queens. For reference, this was assuming the worst-case scenario track, direction and speed in which a hypothetical hurricane would take up here. The exact factors that make up this scenario were a mid-range Cat 4 hurricane (so I assume around 145 MPH) that was racing NW at 60 MPH (very possible, aka the 1938 one) at normal high tide before making landfall in Monmouth County. I assume a stalling hurricane would enhance the surge, as long as upwelling is not a large issue and the hurricane-force wind field has a huge diameter.

I definitely agree with this. According to the SLOSH models I have just run, parts of Brooklyn and Queens could get slammed with up to a 32-foot storm tide in a Cat. 4, assuming the impact coincides with high tide. Sandy, by comparison, "only" produced a storm tide of 11 feet in Manhattan. This would make Sandy appear to be "child's play" if that scenario came into fruition; as the surge would penetrate at least 3 miles further inland along the south-facing shorelines of Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island.

Are they saying this on-air? Their online site video and local text forecast says 4"-8" for NYC.

Lmao, Lonnie Quinn from CBS 2 going down the ship with the Canadian model and predicts 1"-3" for NYC.

I kind of find it funny how the Mid-Atlantic folks on this forum seem to like the upcoming cold pattern way more than the NYC forum. It feels almost as if they expect another 2009-2010 snow apocalypse for them this month. For December, just give me two 4-8" snowstorms that occurs with temps in the teens/lower 20s along with great snow pack retention (-5 or lower monthly temp departure) and I'm happy. Hopefully, any relaxation in the pattern happens after the 25th. The 12"+ storm can happen in January.

I believe he and snowman are in cahoots with each other. Hopefully, PB GFI can sound him off with the real facts in here.