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Bob Chill

March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis

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1 minute ago, ccsnowy said:

Seems like T2m and 850 is fine, and low placement is relatively consistent, but the location of the strongest bands is different at 12z and 18z compared to earlier initializations, so lower total accumulation. Does that seem right?

Yea, are higher accumulations  more north or south of DC?

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1 minute ago, ccsnowy said:

Seems like T2m and 850 is fine, and low placement is relatively consistent, but the location of the strongest bands is different at 12z and 18z compared to earlier initializations, so lower total accumulation. Does that seem right?

GIFs of last four runs @ 12z and 18z

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh18_trend.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh24_trend.gif

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18Z Nam3 Ferrier total snow, which is gonna account for the reduced accums via sleet (not so much compaction with a late March sun angle).
Living in central AA County (Crofton), I'd like to believe this is the absolute lowest bar (6"). Imby I'd much rather prefer the EC and EPS...even cut in half.
Screenshot_20180320-170428.thumb.jpg.372f1453119ce578205721c9859fa9da.jpg

AS county look good for 12 now it’s coming down now if this keeps up we will have 5 by midnight now that sun is going down


.

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

It didn't cut down on precip. Kuchera for inner city DC was still 6". It's the urban corridor, so UHI will have some say on totals, but I think 4-6" is reasonable for inner DC and little more in the surrounding burbs inside the beltway. 

??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation.

12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow.

18z GFS has .35" in that same time period.

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It didn't cut down on precip. Kuchera for inner city DC was still 6". It's the urban corridor, so UHI will have some say on totals, but I think 4-6" is reasonable for inner DC and little more in the surrounding burbs inside the beltway. 

    it absolutely did cut down on precip after 12z Wednesday.     could just a be a blip, but it sure wasn't a happy hour run.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

    it absolutely did cut down on precip after 12z Wednesday.     could just a be a blip, but it sure wasn't a happy hour run.

I just looked again (Am at work, so my quick glance wasn't very proficient), and yeah it did cut down on totals for DC proper, but the signal for at least a decent snow is still there. GFS isn't the model I'd chose to go off of at this time. Lots of agreement on other guidance that the CWA will get hit with a decent snow. I'm not a fan of freaking out over one model run when everything else is showing a good signal up into gametime. We've already over performed in many areas today and/or have gone as expected. I wouldn't be concerned in DC proper. They'll get a solid snowfall for this time of year. Very rare to get above 4" this late in March in DC proper. 

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8 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation.

12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow.

18z GFS has .35" in that same time period.

Then why did LWX just go higher with their snow totals forecast?  

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6 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation.

12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow.

18z GFS has .35" in that same time period.

Yeah it did. That was my bad on a quick glance at work. I still think you guys will see some decent snow tomorrow with 4-6" a safe call for DC proper. Banding is always tricky to pinpoint on model guidance and usually it's not until game time that kind of forecast can be made of when and where they will setup. Again, sorry for my haste. 

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Just now, yoda said:

Then why did LWX just go higher with their snow totals forecast?  

I don't work there. But they probably saw the gangbusters 12z runs as well as temps in the region supporting accumulating snow. I'm not sure if they take the 18z runs into account for their afternoon update - I doubt DC would be in the 6-8 if they did.

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14 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

??? idk what else to call this than cutting down on precipitation.

12z GFS has .7" precip in the district from 6z-18z tomorrow.

18z GFS has .35" in that same time period.

Simple. It keeps shifting the banding every run. Death band at 12z was over the corridor. Death band at 18z was on the eastern shore. No model has really consistently shown where it's going to set up. It'll be fine. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

HRDPS seems to be joining the trend of ever-so-slightly shifting the best stuff east of 95.

kw5vLFd.gif

C'mon.  That's nothing but noise.  Not a major shift anyway. 

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Simple. It keeps shifting the banding every run. Death band at 12z was over the corridor. Death band at 18z was on the eastern shore. No model has really consistently shown where it's going to set up. It'll be fine. 

Yeah I’d agree here. I doubt any model really knows where the banding will set up. After my years here I find it hard to believe there won’t be a Moco Deathband tomorrow.

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This sounds like something we always do. Worrying about where models show the banding and it almost always shows up NW of where we think (congrats Mappy/PSU).

I'm not terribly concerned about the models. Just going to enjoy the show from here. 

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Banding according to GFS is gonna be closer to the rain/snow line with temps at or below freezing... maybe we hit higher ratios. But i don't think really ANY model knows where the banding sets up, at this point.

I don't expect much more than 15:1 ratios at the highest, if another deathband is also present in the cooler temps closer to N MD... if temps remain in the 20s.

In NJ/DE,S/SE PA, ratios are probably gonna be around 12:1 if temperatures are colder than 32 at their highest. Somewhere in these areas, though, someone's gonna be colder than forecast and get really high ratios. It always is a possibility. Don't expect 10:1 ratios. Maybe 8:1 or 9:1. Again, only in the deathbands and what not.

Pretty much almost all models sum it up: Lead low over Kentucky or that area will break free. Then the main developing LP, which is around all those thunderstorms in N FL, comes in, and the Mid-Atlantic sub-forum gets hammered during the main event tomorrow if the right set up comes to fruition. And we get our main event. Right now, the first kicker is moving in and we still have our pretty strong suppression stream over N NE. 

That's all i know right now.

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1st half of storms around here usually underferform, 2nd half usually overperforms.  I expect to miss at least a foot if I crash for 3hrs tonight.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This sounds like something we always do. Worrying about where models show the banding and it almost always shows up NW of where we think (congrats Mappy/PSU).

I'm not terribly concerned about the models. Just going to enjoy the show from here. 

Judging the radar we have a little while for this intermission.  Funny how when it’s not snowing it’s easy to let your mind wander into disastertown

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You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe?

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

1st half of storms around here usually underferform, 2nd half usually overperforms.  I expect to miss at least a foot if I crash for 3hrs tonight.

Yup. Always happens. 

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It looks like there’s a bit more focus on the coastal now and maybe there’s some dynamics lost as the 500 low shifts east?  That’s the only thing I can think of. I like that the euro is favorable. After seeing mostly ice today I’m good with a 4” storm tbh.  My bar is 2-10”.  I could envision anywhere with that range falling here. MN pointed out yesterday that the moisture fetch for wave 2 isn’t the greatest so if that holds true then it could be that we need that coastal to hug the coast, and not drift too far offshore.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's like the lottery. You don't know if you've won until AFTER the numbers are drawn. 

Any amount of snow will make up for the current state of my March madness brackets.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe?

I can guess where one band is gonna be... right over "fringe land." You know it. Doesn't matter where the low is.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You guys need to back it down. Lol. Havent we all said like 100 times that bands with a closed upper level low can never be modeled accurately? How many storms have we seen like this where the idea was correct but the placement was off? Like every single one maybe?

We are entering into the normal weenie panic phase.  This is where I check out for a bit.

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