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March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis


Bob Chill

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20 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

I see the NAM 3k and it has me worried, but then I look at the massive returns in SWVA racing our way, and the radar already filling in just to our southwest, and suddenly I'm not so worried.

Is the NAM low because it doesn't see that PCPN....

Or is it because it keeps the elevated warm layer along/east of 95 (i.e. SLEET) longer than originally progged?

 

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1 minute ago, WxMan1 said:

Is the NAM low because it doesn't see that PCPN....

Or is it because it keeps the elevated warm layer along/east of 95 (i.e. SLEET) longer than originally progged?

 

That seems like a question we would ask you.  So which is it?  Or is it just the NAM? Or are we going to fail like usual? All valid questions that can’t really be answered until this time tomorrow

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5 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Is the NAM low because it doesn't see that PCPN....

Or is it because it keeps the elevated warm layer along/east of 95 (i.e. SLEET) longer than originally progged?

 

Seeing on twitter that the NAM might have had a bad data ingest.

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9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That seems like a question we would ask you.  So which is it?  Or is it just the NAM? Or are we going to fail like usual? All valid questions that can’t really be answered until this time tomorrow

Well,

The elevated warm layer around 850 mb cannot be ignored with a 40-50 kt easterly flow, although strong UVVs can overcome that.

However, the drop in QPF per the NAM (and HRRR. and RGEM) is likely a byproduct of weaker lift as the CCB early Wed gets its act together. Weaker lift = less snow, more likelihood of a mix.  So it does look like both.  Hopefully this scenario doesn't play out, but I'll tell you right now....I'd lock that original LWX 4-6" IMBY right now if I could.  Like...now.  I've always thought 4-6" would be the bar for me and the big cities (maybe closer to 6" for Baltimore).  Still do. 

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Just now, wxtrix said:

professional mets in regional offices and at national offices like the SPC have called out the potential for this storm.

but yeah, a weenie reading models verbatim and with no context, no math knowledge, no high level physics, etc., is a better forecaster.

just sign off.

LWX has me in the 8-12 zone, as well as most of NW DC and Arlington. I guarantee nobody in Arlington or DC will see 8" or more. 

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The 00z RGEM run gets back to the post I made earlier tonight.  RGEM has moved towards its 12z ensemble mean. 

b2bFxxM.png

That's not surprising.  The best runs usually get the most attention, but the outliers rarely verify.  We all know that.  But we're still in good position to see the best widespread snow event tomorrow that we've seen in years.  I'll add one more map to the ones I posted earlier.  This is the fraction of RGEM ensemble members that give at least 0.4" qpf as snow. 

ffizRXf.png

And for many of us, a majority of members give more than 0.6" qpf as snow.  Tomorrow might not be as historic as the Euro showed (although it might), but I'm pretty sure that for many of us it's going to be a good day.

 

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