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nj2va

March 20/21 STORM Obs/Discussion- No Banter

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We”ve gone from snow to rain....it’s 31 but it’s just rain. Melting going on.  Sun angle definitely doing it’s dirty work. Will be good to take note for tomorrow. I think from about 1 pm to 4pm will be when things will struggle. The rest of the time should be good. 

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Afternoon AFD from LWX -- I grabbed the most important part of it for tonight into tomorrow:

Things change considerably late tonight. Both the surface and
upper lows will be strengthening as they head east and northeast
toward us, and as divergence and isentropic lift increase late
tonight, snow, heavy at times, will overspread the region later
tonight from west-southwest to east-northeast. Have started
warning/advisory in areas without current headlines just before
this heavier band of precip is expected to move in. One thing if
note is that a warm layer could remain aloft (as depicted by
various guidance such as the NAM) into the overnight, so the
steadier precip may start as a mix of snow and sleet before
transitioning to all snow. As the low continues to strenghten
during the day Wednesday and gradually gets captured by the
upper low, heavy snow could potentially continue much of the day
across the CWA, and our totals could very well be conservative.
Would not be surprised to see additional significant revisions
to the forecast even at this late hour. Winds will be northeast
to north gusting 20-25 mph, so not a blizzard, but perhaps a
factor for severity of conditions. Accumulations will be QPF and
ratio dependent, with our current graphic including the snow
which fell today. Thus, highest totals for the whole event are
still expected for northwestern areas, with totals locally over
a foot most likely in these areas. However, given the intensity
of the precip band expected to cross the region on Wednesday
with the second low, would not be shocked if some places that
haven`t seen much so far could still manage to get close to a
foot. Temps through the next 24-30 hours will continue to be
near or a bit below freezing, with not much change overall.

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We had some brief mixing with snow this afternoon, but other than that it has been sleet mixed with freezing rain all day.  Over 0.5" of sleet on the ground so far, with pellets frozen together into a hard sheet of ice.

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Been rain/zr most of the day. Not much mixing today. With the temp below freezing though there is a real solid glaze over the trees and some of the surfaces now. 

Going to get a jebwalk in soon to explore the area. 

I know we're all about snow, but this has been a legitimate ice event here in its own right. 

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Grass shouldn't last much longer here. Snow is really coming down in Gaithersburg.

 

If I get 2" by 6:00, the Euro will have verified the first frame for me. Could happen if you saw how much was coming down, will be very dependent on banding.

 

 

 

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This region should wind up with about 16 inches of fresh snow by 10pm tomorrow night. I gotta get back before I get snowed in!

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Anyone north of the beltway, my bet is the next band gives all of you snow too. I was sitting under FZRA/sleet for the longest time but once it started snowing it just hasn't stopped. 

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