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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Not seeing signs of a NW job yet, looks like it's committing to landfall.  Looks like it would end up east of Tampa.  Another question is much incremental weakening would we see with the inland track.

 This is why I was saying I did not believe it would go west of Tampa Bay /Clearwater area like the European had. I hope it even stays near or just east of the city of Tampa. But that is more questionable. 

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..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HURRICANE        2 ENE NAPLES            26.15N  81.77W
09/10/2017                   COLLIER            FL   MESONET

            SUSTAINED NE 76MPH WITH GUST OF ENE 115MPH AT MESONET
            SITE NPLMP AT NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AT 331PM

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 This is why I was saying I did not believe it would go west of Tampa Bay /Clearwater area like the European had. I hope it even stays near or just east of the city of Tampa. But that is more questionable. 

Everyone was saying the same thing on Friday night as she looked like she was going to plow into Cuba. I believe she wil track right along the coast...but I guess we will find out in 30 mins

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1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Everyone was saying the same thing on Friday night as she looked like she was going to plow into Cuba. I believe she wil track right along the coast...but I guess we will find out in 30 mins

 She probably will scrape the coast for a time, but having the Eastern eyewall go over Clearwater is way different than over Tampa. .

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

 She probably will scrape the coast for a time, but having the Eastern eyewall go over Clearwater is way different than over Tampa. .

Very true. How much surge do you think will roll into Tampa?

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If it keeps tracking north like this the population centers of W. Fl will be on the weaker side with the E. eyewall going through sparsely populated areas.

earth-track3.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Very true. How much surge do you think will roll into Tampa?

Honestly, that's not my area of expertise. You'd have to default to the NHC on that one.

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Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

...CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT MARCO ISLAND...

The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall in Marco Island in
southwest Florida at 3:35 pm EDT as a Category 3 hurricane.
A 130 mph wind gust was recently reported by the Marco Island Police
Department.

SUMMARY OF 335 PM EDT...1935 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 81.7W
OVER MARCO ISLAND
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF NAPLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly, that's not my area of expertise. You'd have to default to the NHC on that one.Honestly, that's not my area of expertise. You'd have to default to the NHC on that one.

Seems like they'll get mostly WNW winds in Tampa so a more moderate surge.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Looks to have finally veered a bit NW in the last few frames.

Looks that way, but it's tough to find the center point now with the asymmetric eye appearance on radar.

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Just now, bobbutts said:

Looks that way, but it's tough to find the center point now with the asymmetric eye appearance on radar.

Never underestimate Irma's ability to straddle the coast so she can maximize her time over water...just seems to be her thing.

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5 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

12z GFS did pretty good with the Marco landfall.  Keeps it on a northerly trajectory to the following panel.

If the GFS is right Orlando has much bigger issues...

What's good for the goose isn't good for the gander...

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Basically right over Tampa.  Will have to watch the wobbles but as has been mentioned, a track west of Tampa Bay would appear to be diminishing possibility.

11L_tracks_18z.thumb.png.5338c58d7fb5cf3743285b04bf4a096a.png

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