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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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The L position is a little misleading on the low res Euro maps.  High res has less of circulation on land at 24 hrs, but clearly enough to disrupt.

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Yes indeed, the 12z ECMWF does make landfall in Cuba, however at least that part of Cuba is flat, relatively speaking, and the Northern eyewall remains mostly over water. 

And then Irma is back over water by hr 36, so the trip over land is under 12 hours.

 

59b2da41dc8ff.png

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The time over land doesn't seem to have impacted Irma's eventual strength approaching the FL coast on Sunday.

Folks in Sarasota and Tampa might need to start rethinking things.

59b2db0b2e68a.png

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Between the ridiculously warm water around southern Florida, the impact Cuba's mountains may have on Irma's core and the timing of the turn north, there are just an abnormally high amount of variables in this 48 hour forecast, and tens of millions of lives impacted by how this all shakes out. I don't envy the forecasters here.

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IF the track into southwest Florida is what ends up happening, that gives it a little more time in that bath water before landfall because of the shape of the coast. May not make a difference but something to keep in mind.

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For all the dumping on the hurricane model HMON, the Euro position @ hr 24 is within 5-10 miles of HMON's position, and at hr 48 is virtually identical with it.

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I tried to post this in the other before it was locked. 

 

Landfall isn't going to happen until Early Sunday Morning so this storm could shift back and forth between East and West several more times by then as well as weaken a little and intensify a little after that back and forth until Landfall. We won't really know a definite answer to where this will make Landfall until tomorrow Morning/Afternoon. No one in South Florida (including Miami) is out of the woods yet. Remeber it wasn't until Friday afternoon that we knew where Harvey would make Landfall later that night. Things change on an hourly basis. We have rest of today and all of tomorrow. Also, this storm is the size of Florida which is way smaller in size compared to Texas so even if it hit Southwest coast Miami would still be affected in some ways. The major issue for Houston Metro was flooding but for Miami, the issue is going to be the wind more than anything. 

 

There reason why NHC, TWC, etc,.  . have to declare a specific location (or city)  being the precise place where tHe Hurricane will make Landfall.  I know some  some like to be optimistic and that fine but also need to be a little realistic as well. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

Between the ridiculously warm water around southern Florida, the impact Cuba's mountains may have on Irma's core and the timing of the turn north, there are just an abnormally high amount of variables in this 48 hour forecast, and tens of millions of lives impacted by how this all shakes out. I don't envy the forecasters here.

The northern coast of Cuba has relatively flat terrain. The highest mountains are in the South. 

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1 minute ago, Sportybx said:

About how much time.does it spend in the water between Cuba and Florida coast . How much strength can it produce in this time frame 

24-30hrs

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I know the euro shows the storm intensifying again after it comes off of Cuba, but I think really it will depend on how the core fares over land. 

 

We we have seen plenty of times where a storm spends time over land then simply never recovers. 

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High res EURO shows the center only grazing the Cuba shoreline, but following land interaction/weakening, Irma deepens 25mb between the following two images/progs:

IMG_4505.thumb.JPG.d652954807989f72e81031a909d7cccd.JPG

IMG_4506.thumb.JPG.c5a6db3d76b807e7c838d415bf6ae57f.JPG

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Even with a track more to the west, there would still likely be a tremendous surge in Biscayne Bay with a prolonged east to southeast fetch on the east side of Irma. 

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2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

About how much time.does it spend in the water between Cuba and Florida coast . How much strength can it produce in this time frame 

Earlier, I believe someone posted that it would be about 24 hours.  However, if the western solutions verify (or if we see an even farther west track), the time over water would increase.

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12Z Euro mainland landfall after crossing Keys just east of Marco Island or just west of Everglades City.

 

ecmwf_uv10g_miami_10.thumb.png.0aad6296a767cd276082f2f4688b10c1.png

ecmwf_uv10g_miami_11.thumb.png.c54a4d636e3b5d2bea6d4823c191b671.png

 

 

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Definitely not pumped at that track from 48-72.  With 60ish mile error margin at 72h, this leaves the door open for a harsh outcome to the major cities along the Gulf Coast of FLA.  Water is toasty, the fish have been lethargic and it's like bath water at Clearwater Beach.

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2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

About how much time.does it spend in the water between Cuba and Florida coast . How much strength can it produce in this time frame 

Earlier, I believe someone posted that it would be about 24 hours.  However, if the western solutions verify (or if we see an even farther west track), the time over water would increase.

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It's an interesting solution on the euro. The storm obviously would weaken over cstl Cuba, but if the euro is right, that is rapidly intensifying into SW FL where the importance of this storm was more centered for MIA-FLL area. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's an interesting solution on the euro. The storm obviously would weaken over cstl Cuba, but if the euro is right, that is rapidly intensifying into SW FL where the importance of this storm was more centered for MIA-FLL area. 

Looks like a stronger Hurricane Donna. 

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The 12z ECMWF takes Irma across Key West into southwest Florida. That portion of the state appears likely to experience the most severe conditions from Irma. At this time, there may be some reason for cautious optimism that Miami will experience a rough but not catastrophic impact. Caution is still advisable, as the ECMWF has averaged 48-hour errors in its track forecast of just over 50 miles. A 50-mile shift to the East would be devastating for Miami. Hopefully, tonight's and tomorrow's runs and the storm tracks will allow one to have greater confidence in where things currently stand.

Forecast wind gusts on the 12z ECMWF courtesy of Weather.US:

ECMWF0908201712z.jpg

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That's a pretty terrible track for the Matanzas/Cardenas area of northern Cuba. I doubt they have issued any evacuation orders...

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If the Euro track verified, even Orlando could experience gusts to hurricane strength. If I recall correctly, they took a pretty good beating from Charley there.

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