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Upper Level LOL

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About Upper Level LOL

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KHSD
  • Location:
    Edmond, OK

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326 profile views
  1. May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

    Re: no PDS/High risk:
  2. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    May have spoken a bit too soon, man that Amber cell ramped up quick
  3. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Man we dodged a bullet here in the OKC metro, with this monster storm not developing a tornado
  4. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Tescott under the gun again
  5. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Just posted:
  6. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Storm mode thus far is linear
  7. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    KAKE streaming coverage again: http://www.kake.com/category/314584/weather-now
  8. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Nice little discussion from the SPC re: no PDS watches (yet) today:
  9. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Well that's unfortunate timing
  10. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    First watch of the day up...in Kansas
  11. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Tornado watch coming soon for TX panhandle/W OK and S Kansas. Looks like concerns about early initiation were valid http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0313.html SUMMARY...Development of additional thunderstorms is expected between 17-19Z across portions of the Texas Panhandle into the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle into southwest and south-central Kansas. Severe storms will be likely by early afternoon, with all severe hazards possible, including very large hail and a tornado threat. DISCUSSION...Trends in morning surface analyses and visible satellite imagery showed a quasistationary boundary extending from extreme southeast NE to southwest KS into the OK Panhandle (east of KGUY) to far northern TX Panhandle. In KS this boundary was analyzed at 15Z to the south of KCNK and south of KGBD. Although surface heating, given breaks in high-level clouds, is resulting in mixing, persistent southerly low-level winds are compensating to maintain surface dew points in the middle-upper 60s from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central OK to southern and eastern KS. Moisture return has also spread farther westward this morning into more of the TX Panhandle. This moisture combined with diabatic heating will further weaken inhibition, resulting very strong instability (MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon. Recent lightning data, satellite and radar imagery showed a storm had developed near the intersection of the quasistationary boundary and dry line in Hansford County TX (extreme northern TX Panhandle). A 70-75 kt southwesterly 500-mb jet accompanying a shortwave trough will move through the southern High Plains early this afternoon and proceed downstream into western OK to central KS by late afternoon. Forcing for ascent attendant to this trough and exit region of the 500-mb jet are expected to reach western portions of the discussion area between 17-19Z supporting additional storm development into the afternoon. This scenario is suggested by the last several runs of the operational HRRR and the 12Z HREF. These initial storms will continue to form from the northern TX Panhandle to part of southwest and adjacent south-central KS where low-level convergence is the strongest, given strengthening low-level winds into the quasistationary boundary. Storms will also develop equatorward along and east of the dryline, as it mixes eastward this afternoon into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, and into western OK. The available MUCAPE and increasing effective bulk shear will be favorable for supercells producing tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. Storms that develop along the dryline and into western OK will have a greater likelihood to be discrete, given shear vectors crossing the initiation boundary. Shear vectors in vicinity of the boundary in KS may tend to be more parallel resulting in bows with embedded supercells.
  12. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    ...should this have been a PDS watch?
  13. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Man that's a lot of hooks on these storms, visible even at the regional level
  14. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    That's a string of pearls in Kansas as the evening LLJ begins to ramp up
  15. Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Yeah that Greensburg storm is lookin nasty. Ate up the cell to its north and now has no competition around it. Nice hook going too.
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