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About geddyweather

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  1. Which, for what its worth, was not as progressive with the southern piece. Sfc low in still in E KY at 72h compared to WV region on GFS/Euro. Heck of a thump in west central OH with that one. Find this setup very interesting, early season Apps Runners are not something I am well acquainted with. Seems like the northern stream piece has been stout and consistent enough that getting at least SOME snow here imby seems likely. However, phasing systems have not been kind as of the last couple years, so I'm hesitant to buy the hype overall. Sat/Sun are going to be very revealing especially as all the pieces get sampled.
  2. Extremely well done interactive link by NWS Marquette, MI on the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. 45 years ago tonight...
  3. Been lurking in here and man is this both equal parts fun and terrifying. If I had to throw a guess, lets go with: 898mb/165kts. Idc if this is late or not. Just doing it for posterity.
  4. Aaaaand the southern eyewall looks like it is opening back up again. Rinse & repeat... Not negating the impacts by any means, appears to be a fairly wide wind field to go with the already well-established rain and surge threats. I’d wager someone in between Mobile and Pensacola walks away with a 30” total by the time this is all said and done. Rough night ahead on the AL/FL Gulf Coast.
  5. Wow. That is just phenomenal. What a job by recon this afternoon.
  6. This was my fear. You do bring up a good point in your most recent reply in that it is hard to tell which slabs are old and which ones are "fresh", but regardless, this has the appearance of a very significant surge event. We're not going to know the true extent until first responders can get in there, but I have a bad feeling...
  7. Bingo. Doing some comparison/geotagging on Google Earth, this appears to be the entire swatch of the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge from Creole all the way to about Pecan Island. First thing to note is there is essentially NOTHING out here infrastructure wise. It's open, flat, and sparsely populated. That said, embedded within are said unincorporated communities of Creole, Grand Chenier, and Pecan Island, as well as a campground/pier at Rutherford Beach (which makes the more widely known Holly Beach look like a metropolitan area). Each name has about 300 people per village according to a quick search. According to one of Simon Brewer's tweets, he tried to get back into this area today, but could not. I still have no other knowledge of anybody being able to reach this area...
  8. Um, guys...I think satellite found the storm surge.....
  9. MEANWHILE... Reed made it down to Hackberry, south of Lake Charles. Devastation.
  10. I do not believe your eggdrop soup was hot enough to burn your tongue. Did you measure it with a thermometer? We need visual data of the thermometer or it didn't happen. No excuse for not taking data in every square inch of the soup bowl. We need better thermometers. SAD.
  11. Don't take the bait y'all. Time to move on.
  12. As far as I am aware, nobody has been able to even get close to being out that way yet. The road, LA-27, that leads you into that area appears shut down (impassable?) starting at Cameron atleast according to Google Maps. Little uneasy as to what people begin to find when they can get there.
  13. Eh, yes and no. Not claiming to be an expert on this either by any means (that's why I'm still in school!), but you are correct in that southern eyewalls often do look weaker than their northern segments. I don't think it is incorrect to say that Laura's does look surprisingly weak, there are other examples that look better, but I think it's important to take it as a part of the larger picture (eg: it has appeared this way for most of the day, the storm has managed to strengthen some regardless, etc). Just my 2 cents.
  14. This is the ticket. Here's the thing, even if the southern eyewall does open up (either through ERC, shear, dry air, simultaneous bird farts, whatever), guess what: you still have a 135-145mph storm roaring onshore vs 150-155mph. With a storm this size, the differences are going to be minimal. Especially with the surge being a factor. Edit: sorta ninja'd.