Memphis Weather

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About Memphis Weather

  • Birthday 02/17/1987

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  1. Likely the radar imagery from Portugal is what pushed this to classification. It would probably have been declared a STS in post season analysis had they not named it today.
  2. NHC going 85 mph and will be doing a special advisory to update forecast intensities
  3. I just find it slightly amusing this bickering about whether the eyewall is open or closed (I agree there is some obvious recent deterioration) when this storm is 6 hours from landfall...it's not going to make a difference in terms of practical intensity and impacts and certainly it's far too late to prevent the pressure-driven surge of water already moving onshore...
  4. Which would be about the worst case scenario for Lake Charles in terms of surge
  5. This is pretty much the situation. There's no time for any meaningful negative impact I don't think at this point. Leveling...sure.
  6. 938mb appears to be the extrap pressure. As always that number tends to be a little low and calibration with the actual dropsonde will be shortly...but clearly the pressure continues a steady if not rapid decline.
  7. Aside the extrap pressure near 110 kt SFMR estimates in both the NW and SE eyewalls is quite something too
  8. NE Quad recon pass definitely justifies a Cat 4 upgrade
  9. LCH (NWS Lake Charles) has been officially evacuated and all operations are now being handled either remotely or primarily by NWS Brownsville TX
  10. SUMMARY...SUMMARY BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 165 MPH (EF2-EF3) IS LIKELY ONGOING. DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KGRK AS OF 2250Z REVEAL AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.5 DEGREE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY OF AT LEAST 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STP BETWEEN 5 AND 6. PREVIOUS SIGNATURES WITHIN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS PRODUCED TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS FROM 130 TO 165 MPH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO. A LONGER-TRACK TORNADO IS ONGOING AND MAY CONTINUE BASED ON THE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY DURATION AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.
  11. Looks like that one has roped out at least for the moment