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Memphis Weather

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Everything posted by Memphis Weather

  1. Likely the radar imagery from Portugal is what pushed this to classification. It would probably have been declared a STS in post season analysis had they not named it today.
  2. SUMMARY...SUMMARY BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 165 MPH (EF2-EF3) IS LIKELY ONGOING. DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KGRK AS OF 2250Z REVEAL AN INTENSE SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.5 DEGREE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY OF AT LEAST 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STP BETWEEN 5 AND 6. PREVIOUS SIGNATURES WITHIN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS PRODUCED TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS FROM 130 TO 165 MPH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADO. A LONGER-TRACK TORNADO IS ONGOING AND MAY CONTINUE BASED ON THE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY DURATION AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.
  3. Looks like that one has roped out at least for the moment
  4. Violent motion on this one. Sub vortices evident.
  5. Anything less than full devastation in Soso or any of the other small communities that have already been hit would be a miracle. The debris fallout on Correlation Coefficient is unlike anything I've seen before....
  6. Per @NWSNorman - PDS Tornado Watch for much of Western/Central OK currently being coordianted
  7. It was. Branson AWOS recorded a 63 mph wind gust. Sounds like it was the duckboats.
  8. Major situation developing in Branson, MO. One or more sightseeing boats capsized during severe storms there. Reports of dozens in the water with rescues ongoing and early reports of multiple fatalities.
  9. Potentially serious situation in Branson, MO. Reports of a sightseeing boat being capsized/sinking during a severe storm. Possibly 20-30 people in the water, rescues ongoing but there may be fatalities involved.
  10. Dropsonde had 910 with 14 kt wind so we likely are at 909
  11. Of course remember with Dominica's elevation some of those incredible winds above the surface will be realized in a few areas on the island.
  12. Dropsonde splashed at 928 with 40 kt winds. So probably 924...
  13. Ugh. Dominica is about to be destroyed. Awful. And much more populated than Barbuda
  14. Multiple rather serious damage reports coming out of Goodman. Interestingly...no TDS has been indicated on radar. Not sure if perhaps damage could be related to RFD.
  15. Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for the info! I have to say...its the best NWS assessment I've seen. Great coverage of the societal aspect. I'm interested now to see what the eventual changes will be...how a "impact-based" system is implemented. At the least...as CT Rain says...appears the Tornado Emergency is going to become a separate product...but appears even bigger changes will eventually come.
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