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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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38 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

They were hit directly by Charley in 2004 and I don't recall it being a big problem.

http://allears.net/news/hurricane.htm

Found this article stating that many attractions opened the next day.

 

I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. 

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Mean track is pretty awful for Miami area according to this

11L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.dbfa6c24896c89091e1722dd2ec34cfe.png

 

Barring a decent shift, we will be wobble watching like crazy in a couple days.

Plenty of potential western coast tracks showing up now.  Interesting how they are pretty much a NNW through the state instead of N or NNE now (capture by the cutoff I assume).

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Further west track increases chance of more interaction with Cuba/possible weakening. Downside is unless it gets far enough West into the Gulf, the eastern eyewall could just rake the cities on SW FL coast on a NNW track without much weakening.

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The timing and duration of the northern turn and then the timing of the westward bend is so critical.  It just seems like a very difficult track to forecast.  So far, it's been on a general westward motion with degrees of more northern and southern jogs.  

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6 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said:

Looks to me like in the last couple frames the eye is shrinking as well. Maybe I'm just losing my mind but I swear that's what it looks like. 

I noticed that too....Should soon see with next vortex message.

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30 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Seems like you can see the physical size actually increasing right now on the animated loop. Also, Turks and Caicos are taking one on the chin right now.

 

 

It's the first piece of land , that's tasted IRMA's true surge.   Even all the islands hit yesterday...were either a direct hit or only got brushed on the south or west end.  

Just to the right of a hurricane = worst surge.   wouldn't be surprised if their seeing a 20 to 25 foot surge.   Think about how long this waters been gathering up on it's right side...about a week now. 

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I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. 



Charley had a very small wind field and I-4 was kind of the dividing line between who got damage and who didn't. I was on the 'got damage' side.

Oddly, Hurricane Erin in '95 is the only central Fl hurricane that really impacted the parks. Sea World didn't open day after until 2 because it took us that long to remove over 100 downed trees and shredded roofing from the ski stadium.

Back to lurking...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Storm looks like it's almost moving due west now. 

Almost...still gaining latitude..just slowly. 

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3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Not look good as in structure, or in tragedy?

Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening.

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Just now, andyhb said:

Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening.

that looks very very saucy

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2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Just eyeballing the 18z GEFS ensembles compared to the 18Z GFS the OP looks to be on the left of that guidance prior to the N turn.

Honestly, I think the ensembles lose a bit of value for S FL at this point. 12z GFS probably the east boundary, 12z UK the West. Won't know for sure the track until that turn begins.

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9 minutes ago, Hazey said:

The Turks and Caicos islands just went through the RFQ. Wonder how they faired. Yikes.

Yeah, looks like it will be pretty bad.  I spent the day on Grand Turk while on a cruise.  All, low lying ground with no where to hide.

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1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening.

That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before.

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1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

 

That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before.

Irma is just moving into the warmest waters it's encountered too

 

Screen Shot 2017-09-07 at 8.38.04 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

24 hr ago

It's useful in a sense. Looks like most of these models were slightly too far NE with the center yesterday compared to where it is now. 

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guys and gals, not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but we've had a couple of X-class and a couple of M-class solar flares over the last 36 hours (one of which was an X-9). I know this won't directly affect Irma itself. But we've been apparently been wavering between a G-2 and G-4 geomagnetic storm over the last few hours, and may do so for another 24-48 hours. this type of geomagnetic storm may affect satellites and their data, as well as some radio transmissions.

hopefully this doesn't degrade any data we will be getting on Irma (and Jose and Katia) from up top for the next few days, when we need it the most.

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Just want to say I appreciate all the Mets along with all the great posters on here.  Makes dealing with these kinds of events much easier when you have the best information.  I'll be happy when it's over, already been a long week.

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11 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

5GZKSl4.png

 

Edit: Updated. Sorry put wrong map at first.

Maybe I've looked at too many models the past couple of days & I'm going crazy but doesn't this look like its pushing east again?

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15 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Only a partial pass, but boy that does not look good.

Well it's unfortunate that it's partial coverage, but yeah, I'm not seeing much of IEW in there.

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Just now, otown said:

Maybe I've looked at too many models the past couple days & I'm going crazy but doesn't this look like its pushing east again?

The models seem to oscillating 30-50 miles per run..they go east...they go west..then back east...and on.  Unfortunately...those shifts mean a lot due to the population densities. All in all though..pretty good model agreement on a Southern Florida hit/raking.

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