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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I don't post often in this thread but really a stunning GFS and Euro runs today.  I have followed tropical meteorology my whole life and have chased several hurricanes.  What we see on today's runs is about the worst case scenario I could for see and something I have dreaded my whole life.

A south to north Cat 4 type hurricane hugging the Florida east coast, with the eye a few miles west of the coast is devastating.  Irma comes in just south of Miami.  If the eye stays just west of the cities of Miami. Fort Laurderdale, West Palm Beach  the high rise coast line gets the strong east and then south wind.  Winds are stronger on the east side of the storm.  Add the forward speed of the storm to the wind.  Absolutely the worst track.  Then heads all the way up to Georgia.  

This is a very scary solution. Potential high death toll.  Not just from wind and rain but long lasting power outages with no way to get elderly and people out of high rises and no services for long periods of time. We have plenty of time for a shift to some small degree in the track.  Last nights GFS track 50 miles east would have been hugely better.

I hope S Florida realizes this is not just another hurricane.  My fear is that it could be many times worse than anything the US has ever seen if this track and intensity holds... I'm posting this not to alarm but to make sure that people realize the gravity of a situation that could happen now that we are getting into the time frame over better model accuracy...

You left out surge....something everyone needs to put very near the top of the list during LF.

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6 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

It is starting to look a little better, this thing needs to push north pretty quickly or PR is going to get smoked.

PR should be fine (relatively speaking)...I could see a few gusts maybe getting to 90mph...but I doubt we will see observations of sustained winds much above 75 mph.

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12 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

I suspect it would be difficult to plot a more damaging realistic path.  Right through the densest populations in FL and a concerning path for Charleston wrt flooding.

It certainly would be if we don't see a track shift in the next few days. The high res Euro wind gust product is pretty rough.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-1800z.html

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A great discussion (as usual) from NWS GSP. Here's the most important part:

AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: I'LL BEGIN THIS DISCUSSION WITH SOME   TRIVIA - DID YOU KNOW THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN A 5-DAY   TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST IS ABOUT 200 NAUTICAL MILES? FOR REFERENCE,   THAT'S ABOUT TWICE THE WIDTH OF THE FL PENINSULA, AND AN ERROR THAT   SIZE COULD DRAMATICALLY CHANGE IMPACTS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM   IS ACTUALLY GREATER THAN USUAL, AND THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED   AND WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE GOING FORWARD. THIS ONLY UNDERSCORES THE   NEED FOR EVERYONE IN THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA TO STAY ALERT AND   PREPARED.  

http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KGSP.html

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It certainly would be if we don't see a track shift in the next few days. The high res Euro wind gust product is pretty rough.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-1800z.html

Wow, that's pretty bad. This is also a great product/resource, best I've seen for the Euro for free. Is it usually available without a paywall? 

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41 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

this is my worry on the west coast of Florida, if it gets just barely east of or directly under Florida I dont see a storm this size slamming on the brakes and making a nearly 90 degree turn to the right, even nnw at that point puts the west coast right in line 

 

 

Storms this size make turns this sharp all the time. They aren't Mack Trucks - they are air and water vapor, and don't have momentum, really - they are just leaves in a stream. 

Also when you look at a track I think people forget the turn depicted takes about 36 hours and isn't instantaneous and doesn't involve "slamming brakes." 

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1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

The 12Z EPS mean loses it's cohesiveness after 72 hour, but it appears like it scrapes Cuba tracks over the Keys and then makes LF on the west side of Florida. But, boy, those members are unusually dispersive for this lead time.

Respect the cone

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Sorry folks (even NHC with its gradual weakening on the intensity forecast), Irma isn't having an ERC. It isn't weakening. If it lost any intensity from its peak within the last 12 hours it is in the process of regaining it and then some. It hasn't even hit the warmest waters in its path yet, and there's no substantial shear forecast to counteract that. Think of Irma as the hurricane equivalent of some of the tornadoes on April 27, 2011 that had obscenely long path lengths and maintained high end EF4 to EF5 intensity over an abnormally large portion of that path, because they were in the perfect environment to do so.

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1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Starting to see inner eye mesovortices sculpt the eyewall into the square/pentagon that Harvey had upon landfall.

 

You will really see it well as the center comes into view on the TSJU FAA terminal doppler weather radar over the next hour.  It's in rapid scan mode, capturing images each minute.

59b0539dd1d91_ScreenShot2017-09-06at3_58_33PM.thumb.png.062a353b09f5292cbbcd1e848e4bff5c.png

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So just a basic question...is the weakening trend more based on what models are seeing, or simply precedents that hurricanes in the Atlantic can't maintain this strength for a week at the time?

 

I say this because since it hit 185 last night, every intensity forecast has had a weakening process starting immediately, but it hasn't happened yet.

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