Major Hurricane Irma

[jm1220]

If the eye goes within 50 miles of you, there'll probably be hurricane force winds, but the real damaging winds will be in the core. So a tick or two east might cause the impact for the Bahamas to be worse but eastern FL to be relatively spared. But west that same tick or two means catastrophic damage for eastern FL. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Barbuda resembles homestead, and that was from the southern, weaker eyewall.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the eye goes within 50 miles of you, there'll probably be hurricane force winds, but the real damaging winds will be in the core. So a tick or two east might cause the impact for the Bahamas to be worse but eastern FL to be relatively spared. But west that same tick or two means catastrophic damage for eastern FL. 

Verbatim the Euro has the entire core over land for hours. 

[DownpourDave]

If it completes it ERC in a timely manner without weakening I don't think it's too unreasonable to think that the pressure could get below 910mb considering its at 914mb.

[Uncle Bobby]

16 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Assuming this ERC is happening, then PR radar seems to indicate the IEW eastern flank is beginning to break down.  Though it may just be gaining some distance from the station. Thoughts?

I'm running GRL3 at TJUA and can tell you that the eastern... "inner"... eyewall looks to be very much deteriorating.  It is about 60nm from TJUA, slicing at a altitude of ~5600 feet.  So that's pretty good data.

[friedmators]

MW Imagery shows the ERC

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/archerOnline/cyclones/2017_11L/web/summaryTableERC.html

[lakeeffectkid383]

Latest microwave imagery shows the double eyewall pretty well. No question it's going through an ERC now, first time I believe since becoming a cat 5. Curious how she'll fare. 

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[bobbutts]

Considering the winds they likely experienced I'm surprised there are any relatively intact structures in Barbuda in those pics.  Look at the shed in this one, maybe even stronger than the epic shed in Harvey.

[Uncle Bobby]

Here:

[Amped]

HMON is tightrope walking Miami to Jacksonville.   Eye is literally 1/2 on shore.

[78Blizzard]

39 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Outer eye-wall appears closed with the inner contracting. Looks about 50% complete and God knows the size and strength after it's complete. 

What will happen is that the inner eyewall will disappear, replaced by a new outer eyewall.  The size of the hurricane will increase, but the winds will most likely go down somewhat.  That is actually a worse situation on landfall as a wider area will be subject to the highest winds.  That is not to say that in 24 hours the storm could restrengthen with new pressure falls.

[bobbutts]

4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Latest microwave imagery shows the double eyewall pretty well. No question it's going through an ERC now, first time I believe since becoming a cat 5. Curious how she'll fare. 

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[pazzo83]

The infrared shots of this storm now are f'ing insane.

[andyhb]

It generally takes winds >150 mph to do this.

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

The infrared shots of this storm now are f'ing insane.

And with the new eye starting to takeover, this will be a Rita clone by tomorrow morning.

[JC-CT]

The new gefs mean matches the OP being just offshore of southern FL but plenty of spread.

[SN_Lover]

14 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Considering the winds they likely experienced I'm surprised there are any relatively intact structures in Barbuda in those pics.  Look at the shed in this one, maybe even stronger than the epic shed in Harvey.

 

If anyone remembers the shed near the carwash Harvey video, that seems to be the safest place in a Hurricane. 

[bobbutts]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

And with the new eye starting to takeover, this will be a Rita clone by tomorrow morning.

I wonder if this ERC won't end up melding together like it did last night.  It looks like the two separate features are becoming less distinct in the last few hours on radar.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I would expect winds come down to 160 with the 11pm advisory. You can't maintain 185 forever, not even a super typhoon has ever done that for more then 48 hours with much higher heat content to work with. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

42 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

51 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Folks are talking about Irma "scrapping" Miami, when is a scrape not really a scrape with a hurricane this intense?  I look at satellite, radar and modeled paths and see a +\- 50 mile margin of error that is the difference between significant and catastrophic but still really bad either way for those who get "scraped".  Matthew scraped but was less of a rabid beast. 
 

It's the difference between cat 4/5 and cat 1 winds

Maybe but i'm not sure it is that simple. 

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would expect winds come down to 160 with the 11pm advisory. You can't maintain 185 forever, not even a super typhoon has ever done that for more then 48 hours with much higher heat content to work with. 

recon going in, we will find out soon enough, I don't see why it would drop that dramatically unless it's due to the ERC

[HIPPYVALLEY]

41 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The Euro had the eye inland SW of Miami up to PBI. So the GFS being 30 miles offshore doesnt make this a scrape.

Exactly!

 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Amped said:

And with the new eye starting to takeover, this will be a Rita clone by tomorrow morning.

Meaning what, exactly? (For those who aren't well versed in hurricane history, lol)

[Stebo]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

recon going in, we will find out soon enough, I don't see why it would drop that dramatically unless it's due to the ERC

This would be why it drops, otherwise I don't see a reason for it to weak, and other than ERC nothing in the data would suggest weakening.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

recon going in, we will find out soon enough, I don't see why it would drop that dramatically unless it's due to the ERC

ERC's in highly intense systems can markedly drop the winds.  As someone pointed out to me last night because the eye of Irma is bigger it may not weaken it as much as some other cat 5s with smaller eyes but I could definitely see it dropping down to a strong cat 4 if it underwent a 12-18 hour ERC

[bobbutts]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe but i'm not sure it is that simple. 

Well if it ends up a scrape, it's going to be so close to Miami and other metro areas that they'll have to assume the worst for planning purposes.  It's not like we'll be 100% confident in a track 10 miles off the coast even less than a day out.  That type of error is a tiny heading difference with a storm running parallel to the coast.

[MattPetrulli]

 

[TalcottWx]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would expect winds come down to 160 with the 11pm advisory. You can't maintain 185 forever, not even a super typhoon has ever done that for more then 48 hours with much higher heat content to work with. 

What data or guidance are you following that leads to this conclusion, other than guessing blindly due to ERC?

Speculation is not science 

[jojo762]

Is it just me or does part of the southeastern part of the circulation look to be deteriorating a tad on IR? Assume this might have something to do with it being so close to Puerto Rico as it just started to occur when inflow into the eye/COC started to come off the island.

[JC-CT]

Maybe but i'm not sure it is that simple. 

What do you mean? The highest winds are confined to the center. Maybe I misunderstood the point you were trying to make, certainly possible.