psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much. I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here. Destroyed, severely damaged, potato, potato....you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like San Juan is gonna luck out. Close but looking at GR2 Irma's EW should pass just to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians. 1989 population for the 4 coastal SC counties was around 570,000 and is now close to 1 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 some good twitter accounts to follow since the discussion here is so bad: https://twitter.com/splillo https://twitter.com/EricBlake12 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton https://twitter.com/antmasiello https://twitter.com/philklotzbach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 not sure if posted but.. https://video.nest.com/embedded/live/uIA8Yuxk18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Eastern eye wall just passed through Beef Island/Tortula Airport (EIS). Are there any obs coming from that location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Looks like San Juan is gonna luck out. Close but looking at GR2 Irma's EW should pass just to the North. Looks like there was just a wobble NW which could help the eye pass to the N of PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: Looks like San Juan is gonna luck out. Close but looking at GR2 Irma's EW should pass just to the North. Southern eye wall looks to pass 10 - 25 miles north of Puerto Rico north coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: some good twitter accounts to follow since the discussion here is so bad: https://twitter.com/splillo https://twitter.com/EricBlake12 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton https://twitter.com/antmasiello https://twitter.com/philklotzbach All great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The northern wobble will spare St. Thomas a little it looks like but they will brush the southern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrongVerb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much. I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here. I have a friend and her dad who live in Savannah and much to my chagrin they both decided to ride out Matthew instead of evacuating. I've warned them again, but knowing their stubbornness, I suspect they're going to put themselves in danger by staying put. That said, let me ask a bit of a question for the entire board: how well modeled is the ridge sitting in the Atlantic? I ask this because it's my assumption that with less data than we have over land, it would be harder to model that piece of this puzzle. Is that right or am I (as usual) talking out my butt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 There was a 172 kt sfmr in the northwest eyewall on the latest pass. Not sure if it's corroborated with other data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm not sure if this was mentioned already, but it looks like 170+ knot winds were found at the surface according to recon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 hours ago, bobbutts said: Looks like we had 100% camera destruction from these feeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just a reminder, there is a designated threat for local questions, including about evacuations. Please use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Gusting to 106mph right now. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVISTTHO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: There was a 172 kt sfmr in the northwest eyewall on the latest pass. Not sure if it's corroborated with other data. dude, come on. you know better. 8 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: I'm not sure if this was mentioned already, but it looks like 170+ knot winds were found at the surface according to recon... rain contaminated like a mf and in shallow waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 172kt. SFMR looks like it was over land based on google earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12z UKIE takes Irma right up the east coast of FL and second landfall in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Any idea why Delta flew #DL431 from JFK-SJU at 10 a.m.? That seems ... different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, cmasty1978 said: dude, come on. you know better. rain contaminated like a mf and in shallow waters. Yeah shallow waters. Forgot about that. Irma has exhibited an interesting tendency to have its lower trospheric winds to be considerably stronger than flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 172 kt SMFR observation was flagged (code 05) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ukie still takes the cuba trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 As folks are seeing, Irma has been slowly moving NW and if continues like that, it should miss PR to the north (loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE takes Irma right up the east coast of FL and second landfall in SC Well, it seems as if the cone should be narrowing with more model consensus. Yoda, did the UKIE hit Cuba? I believe it was the last model that had that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12z GEFS members in better agreement thru 72 hrs and in agreement with the OP, just north of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Ukie still takes the cuba trip. Then barrels due North for 72 straight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 St. Thomas, U. S. Virgin Islands, gusts to 76 kt (87mph) recently TIST 061553Z AUTO 32051G76KT 1/2SM RA FG OVC014 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 31076/1547 SLPNO P0016 T02610261 TIST 061543Z AUTO 32045G69KT 300V360 3/4SM RA BR OVC014 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 31074/1521 P0012 T02610256 TIST 061525Z AUTO 32039G74KT 3/4SM RA BR OVC016 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 31074/1521 P0006 T02610256 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Well, it seems as if the cone should be narrowing with more model consensus. Yoda, did the UKIE hit Cuba? I believe it was the last model that had that. Yes it does at 72 hours... then takes a N turn and holds it for about 72 hours straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 @108 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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