Eric In NW Ohio Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 San Juan radar screen shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Eyewall coming within PR radar range. 142 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Not just hour 192. It's been erratic with anything past hour 72. Post your spreadsheet and error calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ag3 said: Not just hour 192. It's been erratic with anything past hour 72. Except for the fact that it's wrecking everything else in verification, even at hour 120. Does the verification link really need posted for the thousandth time? The math says ECMWF is best, so I trust it the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Wide shot from GOES-16 - you can see all 3 named storms out there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 ENOUGH. Discuss the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm thinking Branson's solar array is in trouble....wouldn't want to be around there with 120+mph glass flying through the air!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Wide shot from GOES-16 - you can see all 3 named storms out there - Most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMulkey Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. Seems to be most powerful in the Atlantic proper, not including Caribbean or GoM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record? I think those references are for it being a CAT 5 in the Atlantic at that point (vs being a CAT 5 in the Caribbean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: What's the basis for calling this the most powerful Atlantic storm on record? I thought it was number 2. clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase. 1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said: clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim! Stop this ****! Really, it makes you look foolish and clutters the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenavp Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Poor Wilma doesn't get enough respect. I wonder if people just don't remember it looked like this at peak: At one point the eye was 2nm in diameter. 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, I was wondering this myself... even if you don't recognize Allen's record, it's still in a three-way tie. I guess the writers and mets calling it #1 are either applying their own intensity estimates or employing some technicality (like not including the GoM or Carib) to use the catchphrase. 1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said: clickbait...first we have to segment the basin in a new way, then we can make the sensational claim! The tweet was from the twitter account for the NOAA Satellites Public Affairs office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Stop this ****! Really, it makes you look foolish and clutters the thread! Critical analysis of a potential meteorological record is foolish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Recon just measured 150kt SFMR in the SW eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 64.0W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Critical analysis of a potential meteorological record is foolish? In a thread discussing an ongoing Major Cat 5 hurricane where hundreds will likely die, yes, you look extremely foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Eyewall coming within PR radar range. 142 MPH winds. I think RadarScope maxes out at 142 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Despite the intensity debate, there has to have been some sort of record set for maintaining 180+mph for over 24 hours now. That, is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 The eye of Irma passed over Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin this morning, and will be moving over portions of the British and U.S. Virgin Islands shortly. A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site on Barbuda measured sustained winds of 103 kt with a gust to 135 kt earlier this morning before the anemometer failed. The station also reported a minimum pressure of 916.1 mb. A minimum pressure of 915.9 mb was reported on St. Barthelemy. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that performed a single pass through the eye this morning reported SFMR winds of 152 kt in the northwestern eyewall around 12Z. Assuming there are stronger winds in the northeastern eyewall, the initial intensity remains 160 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force aircraft is currently entering the storm. Irma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. A strong high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus model. After that time, a shortwave trough moving southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively. Irma is forecast to remain within favorable atmospheric conditions and over warm waters during the next 3 to 4 days. Therefore, Irma is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory through day 4. Since the 120-h forecast point is now offshore, the intensity forecast at that time has been adjusted accordingly. Now that Irma's eye is clearly visible in radar imagery from San Juan, Tropical Cyclone Updates with hourly position estimates will be issued starting at 1200 PM AST (1600 UTC). KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. 2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and portions of Haiti, with a hurricane watch in effect for the central Bahamas and much of Cuba. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to some of these areas tonight through Friday. 3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. Direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and rainfall are possible in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula beginning later this week and this weekend. However, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges, it is too soon to specify the location and magnitude of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.2N 64.0W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.0N 66.2W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 20.2N 69.0W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 21.9N 74.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.1W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.2N 80.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 29.0N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Recon just measured 150kt SFMR in the SW eye wall. That's pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: That's pretty impressive All four quads have had cat 5 SFMR winds for quite some time now. Pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm seeing at lot of 150+ kt bins at 15,000 ft. The eye is about 20 nm wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Latest NHC Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: All four quads have had cat 5 SFMR winds for quite some time now. Pretty rare. Yes very rare. Windfield continues to slowly expand as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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