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About kenavp

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  • Location:
    St. Pete Beach, FL
  • Interests
    Magnets, milk steak, ghouls, people's knees

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  1. A cat 4/5 track along or near the westward extent there would cause unfathomable damage in Tampa. You'd probably have 10 ft of standing water in the center of the city. Not to mention everywhere else that touches the bay. Really scary stuff.
  2. Eh, maybe this is nitpicking, but whether or not an eye is "ragged" is mostly an objective observation. It has nothing to do with whether or not everyone should be prepared for eventual possibilities. And certainly a couple amateur weather watchers on a forum like this noticing a weakening trend isn't going to change anyone's evacuation plans.
  3. Looking pretty ragged here:
  4. What are you seeing that I'm not? I see a storm perfectly in line with the path with very slight meaningless wobbles along the way. Can you take a screenshot of the eye north of this line?
  5. Good for the mets for making sure viewers in Miami are taking this incredibly seriously. No point in talking up the westward shift in the models instilling a false sense of security in people. On the flip side, hopefully the mets in Tampa are telling their viewers about the westward shift and how they need to heed evacuation warnings. Whether these guys believe the Euro or not means nothing. Neither they nor the model control the storm's outcome.
  6. Very happy to wake up and see a relatively ragged core. Sometimes these massive systems just never seem to recover from such an internal disruption. Hoping the NHC was correct with its earlier forecasts of steady weakening up to landfall. A further west track and a high end cat 3 or low end cat 4 would alleviate so much potential devastation. And a track up the spine would also avoid significant damage to the west coast. Trying to make lemonade out of lemons here maybe, but the current trends are very favorable.
  7. I feel pretty confident that we're not going to see the acute damage as seen with Andrew. You look at pictures of Andrew's devastation and it actually looks like a giant EF4 tornado swept through southern Florida. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough, but I don't think I've ever seen pictures of comparable hurricane structural damage. Not saying Irma's total impact isn't going to be far greater, but on the micro level, Andrew was just insane.
  8. This is evacuation related, but also meteorological. We're ironically going to evacuate from coastal Pinellas and drive about 40-50 miles east CLOSER to the track of the storm. I wouldn't be surprised if I see higher winds where I'm evacuating! I bet a good number of people would head inland farther toward Orlando since there's a billion hotels there. It seems counterintuitive to drive into the storm, but that's what we're looking at here.
  9. Ugh, gotta go pack my bags. And try not to forget the kids. This will be my first ever mandatory evacuation. It -seems- a little extreme given how far east this is projected to track, but oh well. I think we'll try to leave tomorrow late...11pm-2am something like that to try to avoid the mass traffic. I highly doubt they end up evacuating zones B and C, so I don't think we'll be in anybody's hair.
  10. Pinellas county (west of Tampa) is currently voting on mandatory evacuations starting tomorrow for people in coastal locations. So, the met may be irresponsible, but county officials are taking this seriously.
  11. Poor Wilma doesn't get enough respect. I wonder if people just don't remember it looked like this at peak: At one point the eye was 2nm in diameter. 2.
  12. If anything, I hope the Florida people don't fall prey to the wishcasting of the storm missing to the north and thus not preparing. Very few Florida people want anything to do with this. We don't wish it on anyone either, of course. Though many probably wish it upon themselves. The Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area is woefully unprepared for something of this magnitude. Tampa? Forget about it. It wouldn't exist after this.
  13. I'm in St. Pete Beach about 30 minutes west of Tampa over here on the Gulf side of FL. Those ensembles are terrifying. This is something I would have been licking my lips over 10 years ago. Oh how things change now that I'm approaching 40 with children, etc.
  14. I see a blob of convection rotating around the LLC which lies to the NW of the "towers" in that image. I don't see restructuring or a new CDO. Maybe it looks that way because the blob is circular, but that's likely just coincidence.
  15. I live in St. Pete Beach, FL. Can confirm lots of rain, lots of puddles. And a lot of roads under water too.