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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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7 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

This is from Twitter from Maho Beach apparently;

 

 can anyone verify ?

Real.

Copyright war going on regarding the video.

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Hurricane watches will probably go up soon for portions of FL with high EPS chances to experience hurricane force winds.

 

eps_tcprob_64_gulf_3.thumb.png.ed603b451f7f5da8dad764609ed78881.png

 

 

 

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I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear for NYC and New England.

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3 minutes ago, Morris said:

Recon dropsonde finds that the pressure in the eye is up to 923mb.

They missed the eye.

recon_AF307-1211A-IRMA_dropsondes.png

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear NYC and New England.

Seems like NYC and NE are clear. No track is bringing the storm up that way. 

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3 minutes ago, Morris said:

Recon dropsonde finds that the pressure in the eye is up to 923mb.

Not too surprising...going over the islands was going to have some impact

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear NYC and New England.

Strangely enough I've seen a few posts on twitter that systems won't ever come ashore into Florida from the south.  They'll try very hard to either go west or go east.  If they go east the tendency is then usually for them to miss or stay just offshore unless some sort of synoptic setup forces them in 

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Just now, snow1 said:

Seems like NYC and NE are clear. No track is bringing the storm up that way. 

And yesterday only the GFS wasn't showing a hit in Cuba. Now only the UKMET has it. Things can change very quickly.

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1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Not too surprising...going over the islands was going to have some impact

That's nonsense LOL. Buzz sawing a few small islands isn't going to impact an organized TS let alone a fully developed CAT 5. These islands aren't exceptionally mountainous. The pressure could have slightly come up, however it looks like recon missed the center.

 recon_AF307-1211A-IRMA_dropsondes.png

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1 minute ago, Morris said:

No. The satellite image doesn't update as quickly as the storm actually moves.

So you think the pressure came up that much since the last pass? I don't buy it. Microwave shows an intensifying core. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's nonsense LOL. Buzz sawing a few small islands isn't going to impact an organized TS let alone a fully developed CAT 5. These islands aren't exceptionally mountainous. The pressure could have slightly come up, however it looks like recon missed the center.

 recon_AF307-1211A-IRMA_dropsondes.png

Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough.

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Just now, Crazy4Wx said:

Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough.

I guess we'll see, I'm sure recon will make another pass. NHC went with 918mb at 8AM. 

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13kt winds on the drop may allow for them to take off 1-2mb from the central pressure. It's close enough to the center.  Also, there hasn't been a microwave pass since about 08z, so MIMIC has to work with that 4 hour old data.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So you think the pressure came up that much since the last pass? I don't buy it. Microwave shows an intensifying core. 

The extrapolated pressure was also up a few mb. It's quite possible. Take off one or two mb because the wind wasn't calm in the dropsonde.

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Interesting that the 6z GEFS had a fair number of OTS members. Could the storm end up moving slow enough that the trough just kicks it out? 12z models will give us a clue whether OTS is still on the table I think.

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2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Small islands...yes. Flat islands...they are not. Recon didn't miss the center. They have an impact...it's minor, but enough.

Or maybe it's because 185 mph hurricanes can't maintain that intensity for long periods of time. In fact Irma is already breaking strength longetivity records in the Atlantic.

A bit of extra shear could also be the culprit. 

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm personally not buying the big shift East overnight. Yesterday I thought the models over corrected South and West and now I think we're seeing the opposite. If you eliminate the noise, a consensus track brings the eye onshore very close to Miami, and my reasoning hasn't changed over the past several days. Irma should cross the far Southeastern tip of Florida and then ride Northward with a secondary landfall in the Carolinas. I'm also not ready to completely wave the all clear for NYC and New England.

Keep in mind that the average NHC track forecast error is > 100 nm for a 96-hour forecast. It's still too early to have that much confidence in Irma making landfall in such a specific region.

ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg

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