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OUGrad05

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About OUGrad05

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    Tulsa

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  1. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    I was on mangum from the east. Really awful visability. I could see it through haze about 5-6 miles away eventually it moved to within a little less than a mile of us and then began to rope out
  2. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Cams are all over the map right now. The 12Z stuff had dramatically different solutions even amongst the WRF family. HRRR was tor outbreak.
  3. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Tomorrow is starting to look pretty interesting. All the WRFs provide a different solution and HRRR is different still, but the environment in KS especially, looks rather potent.
  4. OUGrad05

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Yes they have
  5. OUGrad05

    MAY 20, 2019 High Risk

    Gonna get real today
  6. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Interesting the HRRR is more aggressive than the NAM with pulling the front north.
  7. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    That is downright frightening for Oklahoma
  8. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    New small enhanced risk in NW OK and S C KS.
  9. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Pretty much where I am. Convective overturning may be a problem as well as storm mode.
  10. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    It's not just this season it happens multiple times every year. A big difference with this particular system is we had fairly good agreement between models, analogs, etc and that stayed that way for several days. A lot of folks myself included took the bait. I am usually a 3 days out guy but the bait was just too good.
  11. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Sights turn to Monday/Tues and maybe Thurs at this point. Watching another system crash and burn on itself is pretty frustrating. The plus side is we don't really need a major tornado running through the OKC, Tulsa or DFW metros, a few days ago it looked like a couple of these days would be high-end and have major metro areas in the risk zone. Monday still holds potential to be high end but the details won't be clear until late Sunday or early Monday morning IMO.
  12. OUGrad05

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    It's certainly interesting D4-D8 that's for sure. I'm not sure what to make of the D8 language. Obviously potential is there, but we've all seen systems just go to crap and sometimes evaporate that far out. This "feels" different given the magnitude of the data supporting the current forecast and wording. Right now it's one day at a time for me, I'm not really analyzing models run-by-run at this juncture and don't plan to until we're within 3 or so days of each respective day on the outlook. Just simply too much movement, too much possibility for significant change that far out. I will say I've not seen a pattern like this and models falling in line like this for so many repeated days in a long time, if ever. A big part of me says the system looks so good right now its bound to downtrend from here. Soundings for Mon/Tues are just nuts.
  13. SPC now has an enhanced risk in the Eastern TX Panhandle, Western OK and W/C Kansas and into Central Nebraska. I'm not super impressed with the shear profiles on the GFS at this point, CAPE will be more than adequate to support big hailers. Plenty of time for GFS to come around a bit on the shear. It's adequate no doubt but not great. Euro looks more impressive. Monday and Tuesday of next week look positively crazy.
  14. Good call on Sunday, I'm now onboard with your position that it appears to be further east and not something I'm going to chase.
  15. You may be able to update that avatar pic sir! Take April 14th down and go with something else :) I agree not to get too hung up on any one model run, look at the broader trends. I do think its interesting that you think Sunday could be a lullday. I hope so since I have significant family obligations that day, but I'm not sold that's the case. In fact, I think it has rather high end potential S of I70 and along and east of 35 at this point. Hope you're right in this case sir.
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