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OUGrad05

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About OUGrad05

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  1. OUGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Wilmington basically gets Nuked as does the the NC coast for hours and hours....but yeah ok.
  2. OUGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Agreed. The folks in SC and NC need to be ready for this. I have a couple friends there that aren't taking it seriously enough. OBX is going to be decimated with flooding/storm surge and in some areas significant wind damage as well. Inland flooding will also be catastrophic. The mountainous terrain is going to further complicate the situation as the system stalls.
  3. OUGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    I'm a bit concerned that as the storm widens and possibly re-intensifies that these storm surge projections may prove too conservative. While I don't think over-forecasting is a good idea either, I would think mentioning the possibility of intensification and moving those storm surge amounts higher would be good practice in this situation.
  4. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    If it goes early before support is there I'd be worried about cell structure. If it can hold off till 4pm and cells remain discreet in OK maybe upper support gives a brief window from 7 to 8:30? I dunno...
  5. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    It should be in KS or IA from what i"d think. WHere'd they put it? I don't have an update yet.
  6. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    We'll see. I keep hoping the models are missing something and we'll wake up tomorrow and it'll all make sense.
  7. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    That's baller AF We'll see how HRRR handles today, might give us an idea of how it will handle tomorrow. ANyone know how it did yesterday? I'm losing hope in tomorrow, starting to look like very limited mess without proper upper air support.
  8. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    12Z NAM is pretty blah on tomorrow. Breaks out a squal line early morning thurs, which could significantly impact svr threat Thurs afternoon. Atmosphere probably needs more time to recover from a major line like that.
  9. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    He usually does, he's solid.
  10. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Interesting synopsis, I just sent a buddy of mine a similar text. Euro seems to try to cap off OK, latest NAM guidance blows up a few cells at dusk on the TX/OK border rest of the state stays dry. I think even if storms fire early they may be disorganized and a bit messy but will remain discreet or semi discreet, by 5 or 6pm they'll start getting their act together. I am a bit concerned with the lack of precip on the euro as well but its not its strong suit.
  11. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Yes it does. I'm not really giving anything on the NAM much credence until the 00Z run this evening. At that point we'll be within range for it to perform adequately.
  12. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Yes it did but still leaves quite a bit to be desired. But you kind of expect this from the NAM, it'll continue to move toward the others.
  13. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Hindsight is obviously 2020 but they kept the enhanced risk with a smaller hatched area than I would have guessed. However, I can't blame them at this point. Timing of the shortwave, possibilities of a displaced jet (NAM guidance, probably wrong but still) and other issues preclude the upgrade at this time. I think they made the right call given the data we currently have. 00NAM runs this evening will be crucial (assuming we don't lose the GFS and Euro).
  14. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    Euro is consistent with the overall environment but take a look at the various shear profiles and the winds directly, in particular the 850s and you will see a steady weakening. It's somewhat subtle from run to run but you can go back four or five runs and see it the trend IMO. It's still a solid environment but I am a touch nervous it may continue. Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
  15. OUGrad05

    Severe weather risk 4/30 - 5/3

    yeah its worth looking at the NAM to see its output but don't get hung up on it. Need to be within 60hr or 48hr to start taking it seriously. May 3rd analog doesn't mean much at this point IMO. Analogs won't firm up until we're within about 48hrs for the most part. Even then, lots of moving parts, things can come off the rails quickly and we really need the 00Z euro to at least hold the line and not continue the weakening shear/flow etc.
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