OUGrad05

Meh, I don't really see that and global models trending down a little at this point? To be expected I'd say. This is still looking very dangerous.

Monday has a really impressive synoptic presentation. There are always ways we can nit pick and say things aren't going to happen but at this point it appears that there will be tornadoes between the red river north to I-70 in KS. I also have some concerns about how late in the evening/overnight this could go. Right now this looks like a potent system through the overnight hours and possibility of multiple rounds of severe weather still exists. OKC, Tulsa, NW Ark, SW Mo could see issues overnight.

Home from the chase. That stronger then expected cap put a damper on updrafts...

A couple hours left to warm up still...

Yeah I agree, I can't see the update but was commenting to a buddy and put on my FB page I expect an upgrade to 10%. Not sure why I can't see it. Claremore to Joplin to Springfield could have one or two strong tors today, perhaps a touch more with the triple point setting up the way it is. Don't want to hype but this is starting to get very interesting, especially with the better than forecast shear and solid sfc backing along and east of US169

There's still some small but significant differences in the modeling of the SFC low, especially this afternoon between 3 and 6pm. That will have a huge impact on the populations impacted by the storm and the probs of tors. RAP is still showing some damn impressive hodographs over a decent chunk of eastern OK primarily north of 40. The HRRR has a touch more surface veering due to placement to the L and shear isn't quite a good. I haven't chased each model run but since yesterday afternoon the RAP seems to be holding pretty steady with HRRR and NAM drifting that direction a bit.

Agreed sir. Also, as mentioned above SFC backing is higher than was forecast yesterday. Haven't pulled models yet, busy working so I can chase this afternoon but a quick glance at the mesonet has me thinking tor threat may turn out to be a bit higher than the 5% currently forecast.

In OK they appear to be elevated SVR hailers so boundary layer will probably stay intact? Plus its early, sun is out, I'd expect a capping inversion to develop by mid/late morning? If that doesn't occur and we remain uncapped it'll be a convective mess much of the day.

Yeah the RAP yesterday was impressive the NAM was absolute trash. I went to bed before the 00Z was available. I haven't looked at much this morning, just finished my workout and need to knock out a few things for the office then I'll start digging through the models.

Models right now are pretty inconsistent with hodographs and a few other parameters. RAP looks like we'll get an upgrade to 10% tor, NAM looks like an absolute mess with all kinds of VB and lack of flow at 850 and 700. Hopefully we have a better handle on it by in the morning. I definitely think we could get an ENH upgrade, may be for hail but we'll see tomorrow. I also agree could be a sneaky day especially with this sfc low off to the west.

I was on mangum from the east. Really awful visability. I could see it through haze about 5-6 miles away eventually it moved to within a little less than a mile of us and then began to rope out

Cams are all over the map right now. The 12Z stuff had dramatically different solutions even amongst the WRF family. HRRR was tor outbreak.

Tomorrow is starting to look pretty interesting. All the WRFs provide a different solution and HRRR is different still, but the environment in KS especially, looks rather potent.

Yes they have

Gonna get real today