OUGrad05

Meh, I don't really see that and global models trending down a little at this point? To be expected I'd say. This is still looking very dangerous.

Monday has a really impressive synoptic presentation. There are always ways we can nit pick and say things aren't going to happen but at this point it appears that there will be tornadoes between the red river north to I-70 in KS. I also have some concerns about how late in the evening/overnight this could go. Right now this looks like a potent system through the overnight hours and possibility of multiple rounds of severe weather still exists. OKC, Tulsa, NW Ark, SW Mo could see issues overnight.

Home from the chase. That stronger then expected cap put a damper on updrafts...

A couple hours left to warm up still...

Yeah I agree, I can't see the update but was commenting to a buddy and put on my FB page I expect an upgrade to 10%. Not sure why I can't see it. Claremore to Joplin to Springfield could have one or two strong tors today, perhaps a touch more with the triple point setting up the way it is. Don't want to hype but this is starting to get very interesting, especially with the better than forecast shear and solid sfc backing along and east of US169

There's still some small but significant differences in the modeling of the SFC low, especially this afternoon between 3 and 6pm. That will have a huge impact on the populations impacted by the storm and the probs of tors. RAP is still showing some damn impressive hodographs over a decent chunk of eastern OK primarily north of 40. The HRRR has a touch more surface veering due to placement to the L and shear isn't quite a good. I haven't chased each model run but since yesterday afternoon the RAP seems to be holding pretty steady with HRRR and NAM drifting that direction a bit.

Agreed sir. Also, as mentioned above SFC backing is higher than was forecast yesterday. Haven't pulled models yet, busy working so I can chase this afternoon but a quick glance at the mesonet has me thinking tor threat may turn out to be a bit higher than the 5% currently forecast.

In OK they appear to be elevated SVR hailers so boundary layer will probably stay intact? Plus its early, sun is out, I'd expect a capping inversion to develop by mid/late morning? If that doesn't occur and we remain uncapped it'll be a convective mess much of the day.

Yeah the RAP yesterday was impressive the NAM was absolute trash. I went to bed before the 00Z was available. I haven't looked at much this morning, just finished my workout and need to knock out a few things for the office then I'll start digging through the models.

Models right now are pretty inconsistent with hodographs and a few other parameters. RAP looks like we'll get an upgrade to 10% tor, NAM looks like an absolute mess with all kinds of VB and lack of flow at 850 and 700. Hopefully we have a better handle on it by in the morning. I definitely think we could get an ENH upgrade, may be for hail but we'll see tomorrow. I also agree could be a sneaky day especially with this sfc low off to the west.

I was on mangum from the east. Really awful visability. I could see it through haze about 5-6 miles away eventually it moved to within a little less than a mile of us and then began to rope out

Cams are all over the map right now. The 12Z stuff had dramatically different solutions even amongst the WRF family. HRRR was tor outbreak.

Tomorrow is starting to look pretty interesting. All the WRFs provide a different solution and HRRR is different still, but the environment in KS especially, looks rather potent.

Yes they have

Gonna get real today

Interesting the HRRR is more aggressive than the NAM with pulling the front north.

That is downright frightening for Oklahoma

New small enhanced risk in NW OK and S C KS.

Pretty much where I am. Convective overturning may be a problem as well as storm mode.

It's not just this season it happens multiple times every year. A big difference with this particular system is we had fairly good agreement between models, analogs, etc and that stayed that way for several days. A lot of folks myself included took the bait. I am usually a 3 days out guy but the bait was just too good.

Sights turn to Monday/Tues and maybe Thurs at this point. Watching another system crash and burn on itself is pretty frustrating. The plus side is we don't really need a major tornado running through the OKC, Tulsa or DFW metros, a few days ago it looked like a couple of these days would be high-end and have major metro areas in the risk zone. Monday still holds potential to be high end but the details won't be clear until late Sunday or early Monday morning IMO.

It's certainly interesting D4-D8 that's for sure. I'm not sure what to make of the D8 language. Obviously potential is there, but we've all seen systems just go to crap and sometimes evaporate that far out. This "feels" different given the magnitude of the data supporting the current forecast and wording. Right now it's one day at a time for me, I'm not really analyzing models run-by-run at this juncture and don't plan to until we're within 3 or so days of each respective day on the outlook. Just simply too much movement, too much possibility for significant change that far out. I will say I've not seen a pattern like this and models falling in line like this for so many repeated days in a long time, if ever. A big part of me says the system looks so good right now its bound to downtrend from here. Soundings for Mon/Tues are just nuts.

SPC now has an enhanced risk in the Eastern TX Panhandle, Western OK and W/C Kansas and into Central Nebraska. I'm not super impressed with the shear profiles on the GFS at this point, CAPE will be more than adequate to support big hailers. Plenty of time for GFS to come around a bit on the shear. It's adequate no doubt but not great. Euro looks more impressive. Monday and Tuesday of next week look positively crazy.

Good call on Sunday, I'm now onboard with your position that it appears to be further east and not something I'm going to chase.

You may be able to update that avatar pic sir! Take April 14th down and go with something else :) I agree not to get too hung up on any one model run, look at the broader trends. I do think its interesting that you think Sunday could be a lullday. I hope so since I have significant family obligations that day, but I'm not sold that's the case. In fact, I think it has rather high end potential S of I70 and along and east of 35 at this point. Hope you're right in this case sir.