OUGrad05

Meh, I don't really see that and global models trending down a little at this point? To be expected I'd say. This is still looking very dangerous.

Monday has a really impressive synoptic presentation. There are always ways we can nit pick and say things aren't going to happen but at this point it appears that there will be tornadoes between the red river north to I-70 in KS. I also have some concerns about how late in the evening/overnight this could go. Right now this looks like a potent system through the overnight hours and possibility of multiple rounds of severe weather still exists. OKC, Tulsa, NW Ark, SW Mo could see issues overnight.

SPC now has an enhanced risk in the Eastern TX Panhandle, Western OK and W/C Kansas and into Central Nebraska. I'm not super impressed with the shear profiles on the GFS at this point, CAPE will be more than adequate to support big hailers. Plenty of time for GFS to come around a bit on the shear. It's adequate no doubt but not great. Euro looks more impressive. Monday and Tuesday of next week look positively crazy.

Good call on Sunday, I'm now onboard with your position that it appears to be further east and not something I'm going to chase.

You may be able to update that avatar pic sir! Take April 14th down and go with something else :) I agree not to get too hung up on any one model run, look at the broader trends. I do think its interesting that you think Sunday could be a lullday. I hope so since I have significant family obligations that day, but I'm not sold that's the case. In fact, I think it has rather high end potential S of I70 and along and east of 35 at this point. Hope you're right in this case sir.

HRRR is pretty good model.

Very big possibility we get shafted...

Surface temps stay pretty warm through sat night, flirting with freezing on saturday during the day.

So do you think this thing hits TUL and OKC or does it go to our south? I'm not sure I agree with you that it's been "easy". Right now OKC and Tulsa have the system laying down a good chunk of snow, I think as you alluded to there now appears to be a good chance it goes south another 50 miles. The guys in OKC and TUL forecasts offices are pretty darn good so if they miss it I wouldn't say it's an "easy" forecast.

There were some hints at slowing yesterday in the models. I won't have time to look and dig in for another hour or so. If it slows down a bit we'll likely have more snow and less sleet/mixed precip. Just taking a guess based on snow totals above, the NWS probably thinks we'll have more mixed precip than the models are currently showing. 850 temps may be a give away they've been off/on warm for various runs on this system.

With GFS lingering at 1 inch that may have the hesitating. There's still some variables to work out on this thing.

I expected NWS to have a winter storm watch up in Tulsa but they don't yet. Must be hanging on for the 00Z data.

You mean Mike Morgan?

That would be my guess especially with the GFS still being "meh"

My bet is on the 00Z tonight sir.

NAM gonna NAM

It is, I lack some faith in the GFS, but also want it to snow, so my objectivity may be compromised

That's pretty devastating.

Was just noticing that. The GFS says basically no winter precip for NE OK. But in my experience GFS in a lot of cases will get storm track correct, but will handle precip and precip type poorly.

Wont' believe it till we're 5 days out.

You guys do any subs to view the Euro? I'm thinking I may pay for it now through SVR season/

Need moar coldddd

Unfortunately seems like a real possibility for the I44 corridor from Chickasaw OK up through mid-Missouri...haven't really looked much further east of that though.

Would love to have some snow but I'm not sold we'll have any here in OK. System is going to be pretty dry.

It's really hard to say overall. I prefer the Euro for the most part on the larger synoptic patterns. But more than once in the spring the GFS has big cold fronts correct, even 10 or 12 days out. While the timing would change by 6, 12 or 24 hours it handled some significant patterns rather well. Each system is different and what has me intrigued on this in particular is the nature in which the GFS really isn't wavering much. It's been generally consistent for 10 or 12 runs in a row now with timing bobbling a bit here and there and on some runs not as much cold as other runs but still generally much colder than average east of the Rockies. It may be hour 96 or so before we start to the see the model gap narrow.