OUGrad05

HRRR is pretty good model.

Very big possibility we get shafted...

Surface temps stay pretty warm through sat night, flirting with freezing on saturday during the day.

So do you think this thing hits TUL and OKC or does it go to our south? I'm not sure I agree with you that it's been "easy". Right now OKC and Tulsa have the system laying down a good chunk of snow, I think as you alluded to there now appears to be a good chance it goes south another 50 miles. The guys in OKC and TUL forecasts offices are pretty darn good so if they miss it I wouldn't say it's an "easy" forecast.

There were some hints at slowing yesterday in the models. I won't have time to look and dig in for another hour or so. If it slows down a bit we'll likely have more snow and less sleet/mixed precip. Just taking a guess based on snow totals above, the NWS probably thinks we'll have more mixed precip than the models are currently showing. 850 temps may be a give away they've been off/on warm for various runs on this system.

With GFS lingering at 1 inch that may have the hesitating. There's still some variables to work out on this thing.

I expected NWS to have a winter storm watch up in Tulsa but they don't yet. Must be hanging on for the 00Z data.

You mean Mike Morgan?

That would be my guess especially with the GFS still being "meh"

My bet is on the 00Z tonight sir.

NAM gonna NAM

It is, I lack some faith in the GFS, but also want it to snow, so my objectivity may be compromised

That's pretty devastating.

Was just noticing that. The GFS says basically no winter precip for NE OK. But in my experience GFS in a lot of cases will get storm track correct, but will handle precip and precip type poorly.

Wilmington basically gets Nuked as does the the NC coast for hours and hours....but yeah ok.

Agreed. The folks in SC and NC need to be ready for this. I have a couple friends there that aren't taking it seriously enough. OBX is going to be decimated with flooding/storm surge and in some areas significant wind damage as well. Inland flooding will also be catastrophic. The mountainous terrain is going to further complicate the situation as the system stalls.

I'm a bit concerned that as the storm widens and possibly re-intensifies that these storm surge projections may prove too conservative. While I don't think over-forecasting is a good idea either, I would think mentioning the possibility of intensification and moving those storm surge amounts higher would be good practice in this situation.

Wont' believe it till we're 5 days out.

You guys do any subs to view the Euro? I'm thinking I may pay for it now through SVR season/

Need moar coldddd

Unfortunately seems like a real possibility for the I44 corridor from Chickasaw OK up through mid-Missouri...haven't really looked much further east of that though.

Would love to have some snow but I'm not sold we'll have any here in OK. System is going to be pretty dry.

It's really hard to say overall. I prefer the Euro for the most part on the larger synoptic patterns. But more than once in the spring the GFS has big cold fronts correct, even 10 or 12 days out. While the timing would change by 6, 12 or 24 hours it handled some significant patterns rather well. Each system is different and what has me intrigued on this in particular is the nature in which the GFS really isn't wavering much. It's been generally consistent for 10 or 12 runs in a row now with timing bobbling a bit here and there and on some runs not as much cold as other runs but still generally much colder than average east of the Rockies. It may be hour 96 or so before we start to the see the model gap narrow.

I'll take all the cold we can get after the last couple winters. Let's kill some bugs and rodents. I saw a possum the other night the size of a dinosaur. With some luck a few of those nasty critters will bite the dust.

It's been hanging tough which is odd. Euro is still damn cold but not -8 here in Tulsa...more like 10* which is still chilly. Would take me some -8 though for sure.