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February 8-9 Cold Rain Event

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Me, me.  Do me!!

I already did :P go find it. 

i need to go, these maps won't fix themselves. 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Day 9 threat looks better than this one. Lol

They always do. It's like looking at the beautiful woman/hot dude from afar: always the sexiest person in the world until you get close and they turn around. 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

OK. Actually taking the time to write out a nice post. Focusing mainly up my area, sorry southerners. 

Looking at soundings

NAM: 33° IMBY at hour 51, pouring rain. Surface is at 30° by hour 54, snow. Some sneaky warm air comes in at hour 57, 28° at the surface but above freezing at 700mb, so a freezing rain mix, precip is pretty much out of the area by this point, so won't matter anyways. Pivotalweather.com has .73 of qpf. I'd guess about .4 of that would be at or below freezing. 

GFS: Hour 48, surface is 36° with light precip. Probably rain, though column is mostly at or below freezing all the way down. All snow by hour 54, surface is 30°. Precip is out of the area by hour 60, but another small batch comes through at hour 66. Most QPF is from hour 48 to 54 (with .54 falling IMBY). I'd say half of that is snow? I'd guess changeover would be quick given rates and an already close to freezing column when precip starts. 

Euro: Precip moves in around hour 48 (06z), surface temp ~37°, rest of the column is below freezing. Hour 54, surface down to ~30° with good precip. About .4 qpf falls between hour 48 and hour 54. I'll say half of that is snow. Light precip off and on the rest of the day, temps below freezing IMBY. 

If I had to forecast today, I'd go with 2-4" of paste IMBY. 

I'd be happy to give quick rundowns for other locations from Euro. :) 

How about the Haymarket VA area please

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Just now, MiddleRvrwx said:

I'd ask us to do me too. But..;)

hr 48: 42° to start, column is warm, .3 qpf

hr 54: 38°, column good, .5 qpf

you might be able to eek out 1"

:wub:

 

ok, i gtg. 

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1 minute ago, budice2002 said:

How about the Haymarket VA area please

last one

hr 48: 44°, column is too warm, .2 qpf

hr 54: 35°, column is good, .6 qpf

maybe an inch if you can flip early enough? gonna lose a lot of that qpf to rain. 

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm not chasing 8-10 day threats. We need to produce and we need to produce now.

Also, LOL at people already poo pooing lack of snow cover after the debacle of a winter we've had. You'll get what you get and like it :lol: 

Settle down.  I need you to move your finger off the Fukushima button.  :P

i'll pray the Euro remains King, otherwise white raindrops keep falling on my head.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

last one

hr 48: 44°, column is too warm, .2 qpf

hr 54: 35°, column is good, .6 qpf

maybe an inch if you can flip early enough? gonna lose a lot of that qpf to rain. 

That's a respectable qpf total. Cool the column a little faster, and we're in business!

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Settle down.  I need you to move your finger off the Fukushima button.  :P

i'll pray the Euro remains King, otherwise white raindrops keep falling on my head.

Haha I know! As I said yesterday, only snow can cleanse the darkness from my soul.

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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When this fails will you jump with me and Clueless? The more the merrier.

This is a dud winter, but I won't jump until President's Day.  At that time I'll probably be happy to.

 

NAM report.  DPs a little better by 00z Thursday vs the 06z run.  I find those more instructive to look at than the actual temps.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

This is a dud winter, but I won't jump until President's Day.  At that time I'll probably be happy to.

 

NAM report.  DPs a little better by 00z Thursday vs the 06z run.  I find those more instructive to look at than the actual temps.

Good point, thanks!

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

that track is money for you.  not bad for me if it was actually cold enough.  2m temps gonna crap in my cornflakes

...ew?  I'm still worried about temps on this one. For those of us along or just east of the fall line, there are too many memories of marginal temp situations not working out.  Gotta hope for deathband/nukage/raking/pummeling in the right spot

 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Ukie track....stole ( borrowed):rolleyes: it from the other board.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316058

One thing we might have going for us is look at the line plot in your link. From the blue dot to the green dot the pressure drops from 1000 mb to 990mb. That's a pretty rapid intensification right in the spot that most of our good storms produce a heavy band. At the very least we will probably get a nice  amount of  evap cooling  as the best lift starts to increaseright where we want it and hopefully some good DBZ returns overhead. 

What we really need is that you ukie  track with that rapid intensification and I think this at least HAS the potential to perform 3-5" through nova/md 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Ukie track....stole ( borrowed):rolleyes: it from the other board.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=316058

The timing of the intensification of the low will be key for area and this is probably close to how we want to see it play out. Need it somewhat weak to our southwest with the rapid intensification beginning as it begins passing underneath. That way it limits the southerly flow early on but ramps up helping to pull in the colder air as it passes to our east.

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

This is a dud winter, but I won't jump until President's Day.  At that time I'll probably be happy to.

 

NAM report.  DPs a little better by 00z Thursday vs the 06z run.  I find those more instructive to look at than the actual temps.

Fair. I'm sitting on the tightrope but I'm holding on.

Thanks for the insight on dew points. 

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