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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Just now, Cheeznado said:

New NAM looks better than the old run, cold air no problem. I am hoping we are getting into the range where the Euro is not really better than the other models, it is really an outlier at this point.

 

It sort of sped things up a bit though.  I felt there was some sort of movement towards a Euro idea

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1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

New NAM looks better than the old run, cold air no problem. I am hoping we are getting into the range where the Euro is not really better than the other models, it is really an outlier at this point.

I actually think it's the outlier now. 

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

18z NAM stayed in the stream separation camp.  Has the look of a light-mod snow from N LA to N 1/2 of Bama to ATL and north...to upstate to south of Raleigh

18z NAM Para is in the stream separation camp as well...similar to reg NAM, but a little farther south with the storm, snow line farther south

I have the feeling this could be a I-85 special. 

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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15Z SREF PLUMES for RDU are having a very difficult time with the temperature beyond 6Z Friday.  A spread of almost 30 degrees and a mean never reaching freezing until 6Z Saturday at least.  

This is probably due to the models having a difficult time with the placement of the low and how much warm air feeds in.  Models having difficult time with storm track.  

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RAH disco this afternoon - 1/3/17

During the past 24
hours the GFS solution has come much more in line with the ECMWF as
far as timing is concerned and so the favored timing is now Friday
night into Saturday morning and there is more confidence in this
then there was 24 hours ago.

The new run of the ECMWF has thrown a bit of a curveball however in
that it has come in much warmer than the previous runs. This leaves
the P-type in serious question, especially from US-64 southward.
This is the first run that has done this and could potentially lead
to a messy p-type transitional area across our area. For now will
keep the forecast as rain or snow south of 64. Much of this will
depend on the exact track of the low pressure system over the
Pacific and how deep the longwave trough becomes over the eastern
CONUS. Therefore not willing to even conjure a guess at any kind of
snowfall accumulations, if any, at this time. Models are in sync on
precipitation exiting the area by 00z Sunday. Temps will start out
in the 40s on Friday, will dip into the 20s on Friday night and only
top out in the low 30s on Saturday.
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GSP Disco

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...The main focus this period will be on the
possible winter event Friday night and Saturday. Models agree on a
system during this timeframe and that there will be some snow, but
the details of how much and where are still uncertain. The 12z GFS
has the coldest solution with mainly snow but the precipitation is
the lightest. The 12z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian models have
heavier precipitation but start it off as rain in the Piedmont
before transitioning to snow. GFS ensemble runs also run the gamet
in amounts due to similar differences. Plan to go with all snow in
the mountains with an initial rain/snow mix in the Piedment becoming
all snow Friday evening. Right now am thinking accumulations of 1-3
inches but this could change significantly with later forecasts.

The storm will quickly depart Saturday afternoon with cold high
pressure building in for the weekend into the first half of next
week. Expect highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens to
around 20 Sunday and Monday. These readings may be a little colder
if there is actually snow on the ground.  Temperatures will begin to
moderate some by Tuesday but conditions are expected to remain dry
after Saturday.
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MHX

1/3/17 @ 3:05 PM:
**These are our initial thoughts on the upcoming possible winter weather this weekend. Minor changes in track will greatly affect the current scenario.**

A storm system will pass off the NC coast Friday night into Saturday and will initially bring a mix of rain and snow to the region. Then, rain will change to snow across inland portions of Eastern NC. The question remains where the rain/snow line will be, and how much of the precipitation falls as snow. We will keep you posted on the latest developments/changes over the next few days.

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

FWIW, Tom Niziol @ TWC, just said he was concerned for significant snow from charlotte on up NE from there.

tell him we are more concerned than he is, ha. 

Going back to the Euro Ens Members, I count 28 of the 51 that have at least light snow accumulations (at least 2 inches) in some part of our forum (I'm focused more outside of the mtns)...with 11 that had areas of 6+ inches

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Here is a good look on how the energy *IMHO* is actually trending toward the GFS.....Look how much less interaction and how the 18z NAM is further south with energy vs like the euro....

12z NAM
2l89fs6.png

18z NAM
1212vjc.png

I know its the silly NAM, and at HR84 for that matter, but I honestly feel like the euro is the outlier here...I really do.

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CAE keeps their thinking the same this evening ;)

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday and Saturday: Isentropic lift will strengthen across the
area on Friday as low pressure develops over the northern Gulf of
Mexico and spreads deep layered moisture into the region. Rain is
expected to increase in coverage during the day Friday, with the
greatest chances across the upper CSRA and middle/northern
Midlands.

The surface low will cross the northern Florida peninsula and
eject out into the Atlantic Friday night as a modified Arctic air
mass spreads southeast across the area. Have raised PoPs in the
forecast into the high chance or likely category Friday night into
Saturday morning. There remains some uncertainty with respect to
how quickly the cold air will advect in and how much precipitation
will be in place as it does so, but model consensus supports a
winter weather event across the area. While there could be some
mixed precipitation Friday night, prefer to leave any mention of
ice out of the forecast and just indicate rain mixing with and
eventually changing over to snow from the northwest later Friday
night into Saturday morning. Most of the area should experience
snow Saturday morning, but have kept a rain/snow mix in for the
eastern Midlands and lower CSRA in case the low tracks closer to
the coast. MOS temperatures appear too warm on Saturday, as raw
model output and soundings support considerably cooler
temperatures. For now we show highs in the mid and upper 30s
Saturday, but it`s very possible temperatures will remain nearly
steady or fall below freezing through the day. While there is the
potential for accumulating snowfall, it`s still too early to
determine amounts. However, impacts to travel are possible across
the area. The precipitation ends rather quickly Saturday
afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast.
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