mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GSP used one of my favorite winter weather lines: rain changing to snow! Gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: CAE keeps their thinking the same this evening buckeye - for the CAE office, that's the equivalent of saying a blizzard is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Solak said: MHX US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 54 mins · 1/3/17 @ 3:05 PM: **These are our initial thoughts on the upcoming possible winter weather this weekend. Minor changes in track will greatly affect the current scenario.** A storm system will pass off the NC coast Friday night into Saturday and will initially bring a mix of rain and snow to the region. Then, rain will change to snow across inland portions of Eastern NC. The question remains where the rain/snow line will be, and how much of the precipitation falls as snow. We will keep you posted on the latest developments/changes over the next few days. Really very bullish from them. Usually they are tight lipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Canadian also showed the lakes low at 06z Saturday in nearly an identical spot. I wouldn't say 'also' because the NAM doesn't actually have a Great Lakes Low per the map I posted, but agree with you on the Canadian....it's in the non stream separation camp and doesn't have a good high to the north...somehow it works out for many areas though and is cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 FWIW, The JMA,ARPEGE, and UKMET have virtually identical timing and surface low track for our storm. All of these models phase our storm and bring it up the SC coastline. We don't have precip panels for the Ukmet, but the jma and Arpege are very wet. On the other hand, the Arpege is too warm for snow outside of the mountains; however, the jma is much colder and is dropping a foot or more up and down I-85. Based off the 72hr Ukmet, it looks like it would be a compromise between the two models on 850 temps and set up the dividing line right along I-85 in the upstate of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, griteater said: buckeye - for the CAE office, that's the equivalent of saying a blizzard is coming Yeah, nice to see the offices straight up saying...."It goin' to snow", just not sure how much. Feels like I've been tracking this thing forever. Really hoping it pays off. Seems like a great setup and as previously discussed, this can only go so far NW right? Right? Anybody? **crickets*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: buckeye - for the CAE office, that's the equivalent of saying a blizzard is coming I know right?! While I'm very happy to see such optimism coming out of the office, I'm wondering who has spiked the kool-aid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Yeah, nice to see the offices straight up saying...."It goin' to snow", just not sure how much. Feels like I've been tracking this thing forever. Really hoping it pays off. Seems like a great setup and as previously discussed, this can only go so far NW right? Right? Anybody? **crickets*** D to the T agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 42 minutes ago, griteater said: Funny, cause the area I like the most right now is NW Piedmont and N Foothills...up into Jonathon's area. Bump this post later and rub it in when you are correct I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On the other hand, the cmc and Euro are slightly faster and further off the coast with the surface low pressure.... The GFS is the only model showing it's scenario of a weak low west of tampa(most likely wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, burrel2 said: FWIW, The JMA,ARPEGE, and UKMET have virtually identical timing and surface low track for our storm. All of these models phase our storm and bring it up the SC coastline. We don't have precip panels for the Ukmet, but the jma and Arpege are very wet. On the other hand, the Arpege is too warm for snow outside of the mountains; however, the jma is much colder and is dropping a foot or more up and down I-85. Based off the 72hr Ukmet, it looks like it would be a compromise between the two models on 850 temps and set up the dividing line right along I-85 in the upstate of SC. You can get Ukie Precip out to day 7 in this link. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The Euro has been counting on the pacific trough eating up most of the s/w energy and moving down into the GOM very quickly and temperature issues. The short term model NAM is saying "No there WILL be seperation" leading me to believe the Euro has been the outlier all along. Just my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If you blend the low tracks from all the different models you get your big snowstorm......the Ukie/Euro are probably to amped, the GFS is to weak and suppressed this is all exactly what we would expect the models to show if we are expecting a good hit.....I guess I am overly optimistic but this looks and feels like a classic setup for a typical big upper SE good snowstorm.....its never ever a guarantee in the SE, in fact as optimistic as I am I know it could and usually does go bad, that said it also does occasionally snow and snow good in the SE and this has all the makings of one of those times.....lets hope it the 1 in 50.... I wouldn't worry about the GL low on the NAM and CMC plenty of cold air will be available...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, colonel717 said: You can get Ukie Precip out to day 7 in this link. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ Awesome, thanks for the link. UKMet precip at day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: CAE keeps their thinking the same this evening .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday and Saturday: Isentropic lift will strengthen across the area on Friday as low pressure develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico and spreads deep layered moisture into the region. Rain is expected to increase in coverage during the day Friday, with the greatest chances across the upper CSRA and middle/northern Midlands. The surface low will cross the northern Florida peninsula and eject out into the Atlantic Friday night as a modified Arctic air mass spreads southeast across the area. Have raised PoPs in the forecast into the high chance or likely category Friday night into Saturday morning. There remains some uncertainty with respect to how quickly the cold air will advect in and how much precipitation will be in place as it does so, but model consensus supports a winter weather event across the area. While there could be some mixed precipitation Friday night, prefer to leave any mention of ice out of the forecast and just indicate rain mixing with and eventually changing over to snow from the northwest later Friday night into Saturday morning. Most of the area should experience snow Saturday morning, but have kept a rain/snow mix in for the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA in case the low tracks closer to the coast. MOS temperatures appear too warm on Saturday, as raw model output and soundings support considerably cooler temperatures. For now we show highs in the mid and upper 30s Saturday, but it`s very possible temperatures will remain nearly steady or fall below freezing through the day. While there is the potential for accumulating snowfall, it`s still too early to determine amounts. However, impacts to travel are possible across the area. The precipitation ends rather quickly Saturday afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast. yeah I saw that as well, I am in the lower midlands so it will be worse if it mixed.... HOWEVER, I have to say this: no matter where you are at in regards to this storm, or how much precipitation comes or what form it will come in, it will freeze over due to below freezing lows (current forcast is 22 for me then 19 Sunday night) so I got to say I hope you all stay safe this weekend and if you need to be out on the roadways please be careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 More separation on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wave went pancake mode early but may not matter hy the tI'm it hits the middle of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: More separation on the 18z 2 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Looks like significantly less separation and faster through 30 to me. Not a good start. Gotcha. To keep the post on topic, looked like a tad more separation at 36 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, scottk said: We have a Hazardous Weather Outlook for NE SC saying "WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY" and a forecast for rain changing to snow Friday night and "Snow Likely" on Saturday with a high of 35. But from reading this board, this appears a little premature, right? I would go with 'possible' instead of 'likely'....JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It looked pretty much the same to me through 48...one big long vort blunt from coast to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This should be another good southern run the way things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I know right?! While I'm very happy to see such optimism coming out of the office, I'm wondering who has spiked the kool-aid Just make sure the portals are closed! Remember, if I get a big hit, then it bodes well for you I've got the moles busy cloning the 12z Goofy, so we have a chance it'll work out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The first wave looks decent for KY, TN and WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 This thing looks like one strung out mess from TX to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Big changes this run also. SW taps into the arctic jet like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The trough looks a bit sharper with the wave this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The surface low in the GOM is still way south at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks similar to 12Z to me at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Don't see much difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Little better at 90, more snow into WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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