Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 At 90 hours, there's a surface low WSW of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 A touch north with the precip at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yeah it's another good one from Macon to Columbia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS looking really good for the midlands of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Don't see much difference I'm new here, but the 84 seems to have the cold meet the precipitation a little faster which increases the likelihood for our area at least. Please correct me if I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Don't see much difference Check out hour 93 and compare to 12z. Might have a full phase with the acrtic let, bringing the system screaming up the coast and bombing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 More precip...excellent run for the southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Still over 4" here on the new GFS. More between here and Macon, Also a nice dump from CAE east to eastern NC This consistency is impressive. Makes me really doubt the Euro- will this actually happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Little better at 90, more snow into WNC Yeah a better expansion of moisture in the SW mountains. Don't sleep on the first wave just yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I truly believe the GFS is having a hell of a time with that "blob" of heavy returns aka the low popping near TPA. Some form of convective feedback is not allowing it to show what the setup should be in regards to precip at 850, although it does look like it gets heavier returns back into WNC this run. Im banking on a compromise between the 3 global models at this point. Look for the GFS to start making its move back more NW over the next couple of days. Got a good feeling about this one for the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Lil heavier precp bands from 18z GFS compared to 12z GFS better accumulations perhaps a slightly better returns in the northern parts. I do believe the end results could be similar to this but I would move the heaviest bands thru GA about 25-40 miles due NW based off GFS suppression bias as low tracks a little more north of Tampa in end results I believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 beautiful look 96hrs out. can't ask for much more, temps ideal and plenty of qpf to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 By my untrained eye -the GFS has been pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Definitely juicier than 12z on the NW edge of the precip shield. Not drastic, but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 At some point the GFS will have to come NW with its surface low placement, which should in theory shift that precip shield north as well. As it is, it tracks the low from south of Tampa to south of Cape Canaveral. I highly doubt that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: At some point the GFS will have to come NW with its surface low placement, which should in theory shift that precip shield north as well. As it is, it tracks the low from south of Tampa to south of Cape Canaveral. I highly doubt that track. how many times have we seen this setup on the gfs over the years, absolutely perfect look at this point and temps should be good for much of sc even with nw shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 More than anything, I'm just pleased to see the GFS cold, well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 also puts down ~.5"-1" or so of snow thurs night over western/central nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Are you located out of RDU? nw wake county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: More than anything, I'm just pleased to see the GFS cold, well south High five. That's exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: beautiful look 96hrs out. can't ask for much more, temps ideal and plenty of qpf to our south. 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: At some point the GFS will have to come NW with its surface low placement, which should in theory shift that precip shield north as well. As it is, it tracks the low from south of Tampa to south of Cape Canaveral. I highly doubt that track. We keep thinking it will shift NW because that has happened in the past, but seems the GFS keeps going further south with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: how many times have we seen this setup on the gfs over the years, absolutely perfect look at this point and temps should be good for much of sc even with nw shift. Yeah a low track from just south of LA to Jacksonville FL then ENE from there would be favored track for central and eastern NC, and a lot of GA/SC......the precip shield also always ends up much more expansive during the actual storm but there will be a wicked evil NW cutoff somewhere in NC.....if you blend the Euro and the GFS tracks that should be about where I mentioned above...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: At some point the GFS will have to come NW with its surface low placement, which should in theory shift that precip shield north as well. As it is, it tracks the low from south of Tampa to south of Cape Canaveral. I highly doubt that track. You would think...it's so rare to have it that far south when there's blocking out the ying yang, but with no blocking? Seems like it should be north. Seems strange rooting for the NW trend, but for the GFS I hope it does. I've got to believe the actual storm is going to be in between the GFS and the EURO. That'll probably get most into a nice winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: More than anything, I'm just pleased to see the GFS cold, well south Yep no lack of cold at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS loves me and Jonathan. Grit!!! LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 To my knowledge, the GFS is a southern outlier at this time. If it wasn't by itself I wouldn't feel so confident in it being wrong. The things is, it wont have to shift that much north to be in line with other guidance, so it seems likely to me. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: We keep thinking it will shift NW because that has happened in the past, but seems the GFS keeps going further south with the precip. Not this time, although I get what you're saying! Ticked north a bit with the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Will the models have better sampling with the 0Z runs, seeing as how the energy has reached some of our balloons out on the west coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The GFS/NAM/UKMet are nice, stress free winter storms with good high pressure to the north and NE sfc winds (granted UKMet is amped and warmer)....but the Euro is struggling to produce consistent results with good cold air. CMC is more convoluted with its evolution than the model progs would appear IMO as well. I still see the CMC/Euro moreso converging with the GFS/NAM/UKMet going forward rather than a cave...and as always, the NW trend lurks regardless of how the models consolidate...still a ways out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The GFS/NAM/UKMet are nice, stress free winter storms with good high pressure to the north and NE sfc winds (granted UKMet is amped and warmer)....but the Euro is struggling to produce consistent results with good cold air. CMC is more convoluted with its evolution than the model progs would appear IMO as well. I still see the CMC/Euro moreso converging with the GFS/NAM/UKMet going forward rather than a cave...and as always, the NW trend lurks regardless of how the models consolidate...still a ways outI sure hope you're right about a Northwest trend would like to get in on some of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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