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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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10 minutes ago, PDUBRDU said:

Yup. Storms do sometimes trend south. I had this image on my phone from what was forecasted. Barely ended up with an inch in Raleigh. 

IMG_0076.JPG

That was one that didn't trend NW, RDU was always on the fringe and we ended up joking that was the one that wouldn't tick NW. 

I am not at all worried about a NW trend hurting us, still think the miss is to the south.  Temps are always an issue though. 

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55 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

A lot of hope/talk about a northwest trend. About when could we expect that to start showing up on the models if it is going to occur?

Really anytime between now and Showtime. Even though I don't want the current GFS to be the end product, I think it is excellent for a look 84 hours out. I have no stats, but I would guess GFS modeled storms end up North or NW at least 80 percent of the time. This is about the time where that can happen, but I would like that to wait till about mid day Thusday.

Anyone remember the storm a few years ago when CAE was supposed to jackpot and the last 12 hours it went NW and the 85 corridor got it while all Columbia students were home without  a flake. Happens all the time. Countless times it's happened here in the upstate , it goes NW , and NC or the mountains have all the fun.

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Last frame of the 18z JMA. Looks, looks like it held steady with the ukmet'esque solution.

Looks good burrel.  JMA, UKMet, GFS, and NAM all have good looking storms with high pressure to the north, they just hit different areas (GFS farther south, UKMet farther north, NAM in between).  Euro, Canadian, and the French model have solutions that will likely work out in areas, but are more risky setups.

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51 minutes ago, hollyspringsnc said:

First post: Weather watcher/lurker here. Enjoy watching and reading everyone's input the past several days as well as last year's storms. I have a general question about the timing of the cold air on this potential weather system. If the cold air arrives prior to the moisture, how long does it usually take for the air column to saturate and overcome a virga situation? Conversely, if the moisture arrive prior to the cold air, how long before a switch to snow? I assume this has a big impact on storm accumulation totals. I'll try to refrain from posting again to keep it on the topic of forecast interpreting. Thanks.

Welcome.  If cold, dry air is in place, a 'good' storm that has good moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere, and that has good rising motion will easily overcome the cold, dry air and saturate it, and produce precipitation.  Weak storm systems lacking good moisture and lift can struggle to produce precip in a cold, dry air mass.  The second question simply depends on how fast the cold air is moving in and how much dynamic cooling is being produced thru the low-mid levels of the atmosphere via strong rising motion.

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3 minutes ago, Justanobody said:

Looks like this past rain event in GA it just kept training for hours over Atlanta with a very sharp cutoff to the NW and W.

According to the 18z GFS it wont even snow in Rome. If that shifts just 60 miles southeast that means no snow for Atlanta either. Way too close for comfort.

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Literally needed a 65 mile shift on gfs ens mean to really get in jackpot territory.

Still gonna ride the ukmet track and love the spot my county is in right now. All kinds of positives from ratios to wiggle room etc. Want to see the gfs tick just a hair or 2 in the ne gom tonight. Euro get colder, ukmet to stay rock solid. Para nam to be money from 12z today ca use if it would have went out a few more hours past 84 wowza.

Remember guys the Dgex is gfs data even though it's in the nam family so it should mimic it.

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8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I wonder why the GFS is showing such a sharp cutoff in the snow in NW GA ? I don't like that look at all. 

I would much rather fret over a sharp precipitation field cutoff rather than fret over a chance of 34 degrees and rain.  There's gonna be a cutoff somewhere to the NW but I wouldn't imagine it would be too much further south unless the model consensus shifted even further south.

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4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Literally needed a 65 mile shift on gfs ens mean to really get in jackpot territory.

Still gonna ride the ukmet track and love the spot my county is in right now. All kinds of positives from ratios to wiggle room etc. Want to see the gfs tick just a hair or to in the ne gom tonight. Euro get colder, ukmet to stay rock solid. Para nam to be money from 12z today ca use if it would have went out a few more hours past 84 wowza.

Remember guys tje Dgex is gfs data even though it's in the nam family so it should mimic it.

Remember ole Frosty, when you're watching it snow!!! I need a big shift to the NW.......................... But I think I get a big shaft to the SE :( Snowstorms are always Feast or Famine for someone! 

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6 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Remember ole Frosty, when you're watching it snow!!! I need a big shift to the NW.......................... But I think I get a big shaft to the SE :( Snowstorms are always Feast or Famine for someone! 

You'll end up fine. I said 5 days ago this would favor 85 east more than 85 west. Cold and high ratios are there, it's all about qpf. Think the gfs is to far south in gom and that's gonna change in one of these next 3 runs it has. So track is gonna be perfect. Big question how much ns phases into lp? 

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

You'll end up fine. I said 5 days ago this would favor 85 east more than 85 west. Cold and high ratios are there, it's all about qpf. Think the gfs is to far south in gom and that's gonna change in one of these next 3 runs it has. So track is gonna be perfect. Big question how much ns phases into lp? 

Agree, I was just picking with ya! I think I'll get some snow but not as much as folks to my east.

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