fountainguy97 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 CMC much much weaker with vort its almost squashed completely out of existence actually may not even be considered a independent piece of energy at hour66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: 75 miles is all we need in 4 days. Right. Also, noticed @90hrs the SLP is offshore about as far north as the GA/FL border, while on the 12z run it's off central FL. It seems like the precip field might actually be further NW than depicted, just looking at how much farther north the system itself is over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 75 miles is all we need in 4 days. 175 Jeremy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: 175 Jeremy! we'll call it 120 and be square. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I wouldn't torture yourself watching every shift of the GFS. On the whole, this is a really solid setup for NE GA/N SC/NC and into southern VA. In a split flow pattern, the GFS often over shears these incoming STJ waves. This results in a weaker/strung out/suppressed system. It will resolve this eventually. The PJ is screaming along over the great lakes with the departing polar vortex that swings out Thursday and drags a front through the southeast. There is a really nice boundary around 850 mb's on all the models that stalls out over the southeast. To me, that will be the focus of the heaviest precip and the areas just NW of there will be the best place for accumulating snow. Sounds great. I know a lot of folks are saying it will be NW of what the GFS shows now because it has happened before, but great to have some solid reasoning behind why it should, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: we'll call it 120 and be square. Deal, I can live with that! I think? lol. Still a long time till Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 If we could just get it to turn neutral and develop that low a bit further west in the central gulf instead of the east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GGEM still looks like a solid event from CLT/RDU/ORF and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: CMC much much weaker with vort its almost squashed completely out of existence actually may not even be considered a independent piece of energy at hour66 CMC looks like it is sticking to its guns with the full latitude trough system, so to speak (I'm just guessing from the sfc charts). It has weaker precip this run, but some light snow from N GA / N and NW SC / a lot of NC save the SE corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So far, it looks like the NAM is weaker/worse, GFS slightly more NW with the precip, CMC weaker and Ukie finally caving to the weaker solutions....all of this after the wave was allegedly better sampled. Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 18z GFS Ensemble members and tonight's UKMet suggest that a well amped and super warm scenario is looking less likely...for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: CMC much much weaker with vort its almost squashed completely out of existence actually may not even be considered a independent piece of energy at hour66 I know that this isn't really the place for this question but it will help me follow the discussion better. When people are analyzing maps and talking about "energy" what does it mean? I am assuming that it is not the textbook stuff measured in joules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: So far, it looks like the NAM is weaker/worse, GFS slightly more NW with the precip, CMC weaker and Ukie finally caving to the weaker solutions....all of this after the wave was allegedly better sampled. Hmmm.... So much for a north shift. Going to be tough to hold the GFS/UK/CMC from missing south. I suspect next 36 hours it ticks sw and grazes a few places in eastern NC/SC. Hopefully it hits southern GA before getting shunted off into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yeah, if anything the CMC surface low was further SE this run...pretty close to the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: You must have engaged your snow shields. Lol, they have been active for years. If only I lived 50 miles west or east. I'm assuming the SW in question is onshore now and getting sampled well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: The storm doesnt hit the Pac coast until tomorrow morningish Ok good deal. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So the Euro was the first one with the supressed weaker solution a couple of days ago, it trends north along with CMC and Ukie while GFS switches positions with the Euro and now all of a sudden the CMC and Ukie seem to be trending towards a suppressed, weaker solution as well. Interesting. The Euro will be very interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 CMC still gives CLT 3", RDU 5", and more SE of there. Trend still not really encouraging. Maybe this represents a feasible middle-of-the-road solution. Actually, the CMC track looks similar to the GFS, but with way more precip to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4-5" for chesterfield cty in sc to rdu northeast on the canadian. good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Lol, they have been active for years. If only I lived 50 miles west or east. I think the shield has been effective for most of the SE for most of the last five years. Would you mind putting them down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: So much for a north shift. Going to be tough to hold the GFS/UK/CMC from missing south. I suspect next 36 hours it ticks sw and grazes a few places in eastern NC/SC. Hopefully it hits southern GA before getting shunted off into the Atlantic. It stinks that we're now in the time frame when it's almost impossible for big dog scenarios to show up. It's almost like the ingredients that create big snows for the SE can't exist inside of 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The Canadian to me, looks a lot like the EURO from 2 days ago. Light QPF and strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 4-5" for chesterfield cty in sc to rdu northeast on the canadian. good run. Speak for yourself. The 12Z of the CMC gave me 8" IMBY, now it has 1". Not a good run if you live in GA on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, HWY316wx said: Speak for yourself. The 12Z of the CMC gave me 8" IMBY, now it has 1". Not a good run if you live in GA on the CMC. Hey at least it still shows something right ? We live in GA so if we get 1" out of this lets consider it a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It stinks that we're now in the time frame when it's almost impossible for big dog scenarios to show up. It's almost like the ingredients that create big snows for the SE can't exist inside of 120 hours. They can exists because they have happened before (1999 anyone), but apparently all the models have inaccuracies which tend to greatly overestimate the probability of such occurrences. Such inaccuracies get swamped by reality inside 120 hours, therefore the vast majority of big dogs go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: The Canadian to me, looks a lot like the EURO from 2 days ago. Light QPF and strung out. It is...that's the thing, the CMC and GFS are going about this in 2 separate ways....stream separation (GFS) / non stream separation (CMC). To me, it's kind of like we are getting 'lucky' with these CMC runs. And Euro has been with the CMC for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I don't know why we even take models seriously past 4 days or so. Once you get within 3 or 4 days then that's when reality hits. Anything past 4 days is purely entertainment and not to be taken literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It stinks that we're now in the time frame when it's almost impossible for big dog scenarios to show up. It's almost like the ingredients that create big snows for the SE can't exist inside of 120 hours. Well we should feel pretty good with CMC showing 4-6" and GFS about 30 miles from that range and Euro/EPS with better runs today...But, with how progressive the pattern is it just seems like this should tick sheared and SE from here. We would probably be complaining if we were in GFS bullseye tonight...LOL. Going to watch GEFS come in in 15 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: I don't know why we even take models seriously past 4 days or so. Once you get within 3 or 4 days then that's when reality hits. Anything past 4 days is purely entertainment and not to be taken literally. I mean, based on the CMC, it's literally 72 hours from the main precip field hitting GA....the storm itself begins to really develop at around hour 60. The storm will be fully samped within the next 12 hours...it's not nearly as far as you think now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Well we should feel pretty good with CMC showing 4-6" and GFS about 30 miles from that range and Euro/EPS with better runs today...But, with how progressive the pattern is it just seems like this should tick sheared and SE from here. We would probably be complaining if we were in GFS bullseye tonight...LOL. Going to watch GEFS come in in 15 ... Yeah good points. I'll hang for another 15, so let us know what you see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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