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WintersNotComing

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Everything posted by WintersNotComing

  1. To add to that, here is the NAM snow depth forecast for Roan. Wouldn't be surprised to see an inch up there.
  2. I'll be waking up EARLY to try to get there for the sunrise. Looks to be a good spot at the moment. I'd love to camp but I know there's no way I can talk my girlfriend into that...
  3. That's what I'm thinking too. When I was doing research on where to go I thought it looked good and then someone here suggesting it made me feel more confident
  4. I appreciate the suggestions! If everything works out I'll post some pictures here on Saturday!
  5. How strange that I'm trying to snow chase in May, and if I can find somewhere with even a dusting I'll have seen more snow than I've received at home the past several winters...
  6. Anybody have any suggestions on where to go for some snow chasing this weekend? I'm trying to find a mountain over 5000' where I can drive to the top or close. Most roads are still closed so I'm having a hard time finding the right one. I suppose I could always drive to Beech but I was hoping for something less developed.
  7. The 576 Euro is the new 384 GFS. Its going to be a Thanksgiving to remember!
  8. He doesn't deal with natural disasters nearly as well as Nikki Haley did. He either goes back and forth on the severity of the situation or he does what he's doing now and says nothing at all. Also, is it just me or does our NWS office not seem up to par with others in the region?
  9. Can you show me an example of this disturbance? I'm having a hard time seeing it on models.
  10. Euro looks more aligned with FV3. Strong wind gusts shown all the way into the Carolinas. Looks like impacts in the midlands could be worse than Florence.
  11. I just got NAM'd! Could someone explain to me the difference between positive, neutral and negative tilt and how it would effect the forecast here?
  12. I’ve been seeing it a lot more in the past year or so. I think one of the factors of it being cited so much for this system is that it was recently added onto tropicaltidbits. .
  13. Would someone mind explaining SREF plumes to me? I’m assuming it’s some kind of ensemble model. For Columbia it’s showing a snowfall mean of 1.98 inches. How reputable is this model? .
  14. Is that NAM really reliable for a system like this? I’m just wondering because it seems to be spitting out a much better solution than the other models. I’ve seen people say the NAM isn’t a good model but I do remember back in January it was pretty spot on. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  15. Today was CAE's first below average day since October 1st. High of 71. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  16. I can't wait to spend the next few months dreaming of this at hour 384. In all seriousness though, does anyone from SC remember a few years ago when some of the midlands got their first snow on November 1st? These things are possible, but my understanding of the factors that led to that situation is very limited. Edit: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Publications/1 NOV 2014 SNOW EVENT.pdf Here's a short write up of the event. I didn't realize I was talking about the midlands in the mountains and foothills thread but the upstate got some of this too so it's still relevant.
  17. The storm is going to take whatever path it does no matter what we "logically" hope for. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  18. What's the best way to see what wind speeds will be on the ground? I think I saw somewhere that you look at the 850 wind chart and take off 10%. Is that correct? If so, it looks like this storm has a massive wind field even well into Georgia and the Carolinas.
  19. Good luck. Your vacation is turning into storm chasing.
  20. With the state of emergency declared and schools beginning to close down there, I would expect evacuations to begin Friday/Saturday if the storm stays on this course.
  21. 12z GFS shows another storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico, skimming Texas and Louisiana. Also continues to show what looks to be a major hurricane in the Atlantic hitting Bermuda. I know it can be a crapshoot this far out, but how likely is this scenario looking to play out? What factors influence the track of this potential hurricane?
  22. Things aren't looking good for Columbia. Big cell headed through Lexington with hail and a confirmed tornado touchdown. Just got an alert on my phone for the tornado warning.
  23. I feel like I have more confidence in Columbia's 0.2" than anyone in Raleigh has in their forecast.
  24. Certainly see Newberry doing well. I'm thinking Irmo/Chapin could see around an inch.
  25. Might go stay up with family in Irmo. Could see a big difference from there compared to downtown. The cutoff for make or break is so sharp.
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