colonel717

Weather Sentinel "Big developments are beginning to emerge in the northern hemisphere. It appears as if we may be looking at a weakening of the polar vortex. This is a very anomalous situation as most El Niño winters do not feature this kind of event. This would literally throw a monkey wrench into the seasonal forecasts . This anticipated stretching and weakening of the polar vortex is exactly what happened last winter . Combining a weak vortex or an out right splitting of the vortex with this El Niño could trigger catastrophic winter storms over the Northeast . Personally I’m not super surprised this is occurring or may occur. One of my analog seasons was the 2009/10 one . This was because of a El Niño coupled with a negative phased Atlantic oriented ocean . I also believe the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation is playing into this and maybe the actual cause of this vortex stretching out and weakening. No two El Ninos are ever alike . Even the 82/83 and 97/98 were different from each other . So how will this change the winter ? Number one is the anticipated moisture flow could be affected and be colder despite the warm Pacific air getting sucked into the US . More likely than not this could be a very volatile situation and may spawn some nasty severe weather over the south east not to mention snow in the north. Another developing situation is the Siberian snow pack . It is progressing at a pace not seen since 2015 and is more on par with 2009 by all accounts. This snow pack is also anticipated to grow exponentially in the next few weeks. This matters as this region is the source of most of the cold air that eventually makes its way into the US in winter . More snow cover equals more cold . If you like snow then the stars may be aligning for a big season this year. This could very well range from west to east . More than anything it looks volatile. I think this may lead to more snow getting into the I-95 corridor and possibly further south . At this stage I believe the Mid Atlantic will be the bullseye. I will be updating this information as it becomes available."

Chad Merrill senior meteorologist and long-range expert at AccuWeather says “we’re looking at a very warm winter ahead.” https://www.audacy.com/kdkaradio/news/local/pittsburgh-winter-forecast Merrill breaks it down month by month: End of October: Expect a cold snap around Halloween that lasts into early November before warming up again. November: “November will bring a couple of cold days and probably the first snow of the season, sometimes in the middle-to-later part of November.” December: Merrill expects temperatures to be three-to-four degree above average. “It will be one of the warmest months of the winter season.” January: Two-to-three degrees above average February: A degree or two above average. That doesn’t mean it won’t be cold, or even freezing at times, but Merrill doesn’t expect a long, sustained deep freeze this winter. Snow forecast: 20 to 35 inches of snow is expected, which is well below the average of around 44 inches. “We are looking at three to five days with two inches of snow, last year, over seven,” said Merrill. He adds there will be 20 to 30 days of getting a tenth of an inch. That’s lower compared to the 39 we had last year. Merrill says the reason for the above average temperatures is “very strong” El Nino. With that El Nino will mean more moisture in our area, and with above average temperatures, that means rain, with Merrill saying there could even be some thunderstorms in the winter. With above average temperatures expected, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cold streaks. Merrill expects colder air to come though in time for Christmas heading into 2027.

First lake effect next Saturday? Not buying any accumulation but could be some heavier bands.

Lets hope that happens with the snow this winter.

Maybe some flakes next weekend.

The mean improved by 2 inches from September one.

Some big potential in some of these.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2026-2027-first-forecast-super-el-nino-polar-vortex-snow-cold-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Winter 2026/2027 First Forecast: Super El Niño Drives a Major Weather Divide

https://x.com/WeatherCast3/status/2089934351911858402

I'm not used to all of the snow positivity this far in advance for winter. Being set-up for the ole rug pull...

Looks like CPa and west could have snowy Dec

The clickbait sites hype begins,,,

Surprised we are seeing some positives in the long range models at this point for winter. We will see if we get surprised. https://www.farmersalmanac.com/farmers-almanac-2026-2027-winter-weather-forecast Winter 2026–2027 is shaping up to be a season of sharp contrasts, with an active southern storm track, quick bursts of snow and bitter cold across the North, and a tricky mix of rain, sleet, ice, and heavy wet snow in the Northeast. Keep the shovel, rain boots, and ice scraper close—this winter may bring plenty of surprises. A Tricky Winter for the Northeast The Northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns. Coastal communities could receive more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas may be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow—particularly during January and February. Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and accumulating snow. Residents should be prepared for forecasts to change quickly as storms approach.

I think there will be additional chances especially for your area around 4/28-5/3