Joe Clark

Thats what I was thinking too. Looks like more QPF than the 6z run.

Make that three runs in a row now.

Agreed. One of the other local Mets out of W-S said this morning to expect a dusting in the triad.

Might be right. From our storm last week:

Didnt the GRAF lead the way with the drier weaker trend we've seen in the last 18 hours?

#facts. Its exhausting.....

Yes. Seen it a thousand times before.

Until the Euro gets on board with the Tuesday system I'm skeptical. I've seen plenty of times where the Euro lost a storm and was on its own and then watched as everything else caved...

Been trending colder the last couple of runs.... overdone?

Agreed, don't start a thread yet.... usually when its too early its the kiss of death.

NWS RAH is showing some interest in this time period as well. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM Thursday... Temperatures will depend on the exact location of a frontal zone meandering over the SE US, with additional CAD conditions very possible. Finally, rain should be the primary precip type through at least Thursday. Thereafter, the uncertain arrival of Canadian air into the area will likely hold off until Friday/Saturday, which would yield increasing chances for wintry precip as additional moisture overspreads the area from the SW. Stay tuned.

From the Afternoon RAH disco: Long Term: The forecast really gets interesting during the late week period(late Wednesday night through Friday) with high forecast uncertainty wrt to just how much amplification of the cold upper trough will occur over the central and eastern US via additional energy/northern stream energy diving south out of SW Canada. If some of the stronger/deeper H5 height patterns verify, a developing coastal storm tracking along the SE Coast, coupled with the antecedent cP airmass in place, could support the potential for some frozen precip across the climatologically favored areas of the NW Piedmont. Evaluation of the latest 00z/15 Grand Ensemble guidance(100 ensemble members consisting of the CMC, EC, and GEFS members) indicates that ~20 percent of the combined members show measurable snow over the northern Piedmont, with a little over half of those snowy members indicating light snow amounts of 1 inch or less. With that said, these probabilities and related p-type forecast and amounts will without a doubt fluctuate over the next several days.

RAH is showing some interest in the weekend system: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Monday... Expect quiet weather on Wednesday with little synoptic action across the region. An upper trough over the Ohio River Valley Thursday morning will dive across the Carolinas Thursday night. While a surface low will eventually develop, this low appears likely to develop offshore and should have little impact on central NC. However, wraparound moisture could result in a passing shower Thursday night. There is still not enough confidence to include pops in the forecast at this time. Behind the deepening surface low, a ridge of high pressure will extend down the East Coast on Friday. By Saturday evening the GFS and ECMWF agree that there should be precipitation over central North Carolina, but from wildly different systems. The GFS shows a surface low move southeast from Chicago to West Virginia before developing a second low off the NC coast, while the ECMWF has a low move across Alabama and Georgia which then strengthens near the Outer Banks before continuing east. There is definitely a chance of precipitation through the weekend and precipitation type could be an issue, although the temperature profiles would look much different depending on which model verifies. The highest chances for precipitation appear to be Saturday night, although precipitation would likely start during the day on Saturday and linger into Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal through the extended forecast.