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Joe Clark

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About Joe Clark

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    Downtown Greensboro NC

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  1. RAH is showing some interest in the weekend system: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Monday... Expect quiet weather on Wednesday with little synoptic action across the region. An upper trough over the Ohio River Valley Thursday morning will dive across the Carolinas Thursday night. While a surface low will eventually develop, this low appears likely to develop offshore and should have little impact on central NC. However, wraparound moisture could result in a passing shower Thursday night. There is still not enough confidence to include pops in the forecast at this time. Behind the deepening surface low, a ridge of high pressure will extend down the East Coast on Friday. By Saturday evening the GFS and ECMWF agree that there should be precipitation over central North Carolina, but from wildly different systems. The GFS shows a surface low move southeast from Chicago to West Virginia before developing a second low off the NC coast, while the ECMWF has a low move across Alabama and Georgia which then strengthens near the Outer Banks before continuing east. There is definitely a chance of precipitation through the weekend and precipitation type could be an issue, although the temperature profiles would look much different depending on which model verifies. The highest chances for precipitation appear to be Saturday night, although precipitation would likely start during the day on Saturday and linger into Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal through the extended forecast.
  2. Updated Disco out of RAH: .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 AM Thursday... ...No changes to the current Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories. Icing has been limited to mostly elevated surfaces, thus far. Most of the significant icing reports of 0.1 to 0.18 have been from Forsyth, Guilford, Granville, Vance, and Person Counties (in the heart of the Winter Storm Warning). The temperatures have been rather marginal again, with mostly readings in the 30-32 range in the Warning Area, thus limiting the icing especially on roads. The temperatures bottomed out around daybreak and have been steady or slowly been creeping back toward 32 in the Warning area. However, there continued to be a feed of dry and cold air from northern and central VA into north-central NC. This is courtesy of the parent high pressure of nearly 1030 mb located over NY/NJ, extending south deep into our Piedmont damming region. Low level near surface trajectories continue to be directed from where temperatures were in the mid 20s in central VA. Radar showed showery precipitation with large gaps in the heavier rates, reducing to drizzle in the gap areas. Thus, it will take a much of the day for the ice to reach Warning criteria on average (0.25 or greater) in the heart of the Warning. That will be challenging given the solar insolation and the temperatures so close to 32. Some of the heavier showers will contain some thunderstorms (as there is some instability noted aloft). In addition, some ice pellets will be mixed with the heavier rain rates in the showers. It appears that the icing will be a self limiting event in the Advisory area (Albemarle to Raleigh to near Roanoke Rapids) where readings should teeter between 32-33 with the CAA at the surface and the solar insolation / higher rain rates offsetting and limiting icing to north facing and elevated surfaces. Models continue to show a lull late morning and much of the afternoon in the west or northwest, with the steady and heavier precipitation shifting into the east. Then, another wave aloft will bring renewed precipitation later this afternoon and evening. Temps should still be 32 or 31 over portions of the Warning area, thus additional ice accrual is expected. The Advisory area is in question unless we can tap into the low level cold air a bit more in the next few hours The flash flooding risk appears lower now - given the heavy QPF will likely be in the south and east (lower end of the main stem rivers), with lighter QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 over much of the Piedmont.
  3. Thunder down in High Point as well. Car thermometer indicated 47F.
  4. 06Z NAM, and the 00z Canadian still showing frozen precip for central NC and points north...
  5. 18z GFS and GFS v16 sticking to their guns. Another big hit for central NC Wed into Thurs.
  6. I've been lurking this board a long time, and this is some funny stuff right here.
  7. Indeed. The live stream from downtown shows a nice event: https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/blowing-rock/
  8. I'm about a mile west of downtown GSO and I've got 28 this am.
  9. I assumed it shows everything frozen as snow....
  10. RAH Disco from this afternoon: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday... The chance for wintry weather across the N and W Piedmont Tue night into Wed is increasing. Chilly temps will persist through next weekend. Weak ridging aloft will create dry weather across the region on Tuesday. Cold surface high pressure building into southern Quebec will send chilly weather into the area throughout the day, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 40s during the afternoon. Latest models are coming in better agreement for the Miller Type B storm for Tue night/Wednesday. An upper-level trough over the mid- Mississippi Valley will become negatively-tilted and swing across the area Wednesday. Additionally, a surface low will develop to our south and move across the coast on Wednesday, and deepen as it moves northeast along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Cold air will already be in place at the surface when precipitation begins Tuesday night with many areas at or just below freezing across the northwest half of Central NC, however the limiting factor in wintry precipitation will be the warm layer above the cold air near the surface. The layer does not cool enough for snowfall for our area, however a few flakes may be mixed in a times. Sleet and mainly freezing rain will likely be the issue for the northwest part of central NC. The highest amount of ice accumulation on Wednesday could range between one tenth and two tenths, but this could still change over the next few days. Temperatures will increase into the mid 30s by late morning, so precipitation in the afternoon should be all rain, then as precipitation ends Wednesday evening, a few snow flakes may be mixed in again with temperatures dropping.
  11. Curious about everyone's take on these Facebook pages I see that seem to only post snow output maps of every model run. Typically they take the one that gives their area the most and then post stuff like "alert mode" and 'heavy snow possible." I've noticed that many of them have recently posted today's 18z run on the NAM for the late week system in carolinas. Do any of the owners of those pages post on these forums, and are any of them at all reliable in your opinion?
  12. RAH DISCO: LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Tuesday... Broad cyclonic flow will encompass the eastern US Thursday and Friday, with westerly mid-level flow and mild weather on Thursday. A stronger shortwave moving through the Great Lakes Thursday will propel a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic states and eventually south through NC on Friday, Limited moisture return ahead of the front, owing to the westerly flow, will limit POPs to just a slight chance of showers Friday afternoon. Highs Thursday and Friday look to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s both days, warmer in the south on Friday with 20-30kt prefrontal wind gusts. The bigger story for the weekend will be a fast moving storm system forecast to race through the OH/TN Valleys and across NC/VA Sat night and Sunday. Models have trended further south with the track of this system along the mean baroclinic zone, which suggests better chances of wintry precip, given critical thicknesses supportive of snow along the NC/VA border. However, the parent Canadian high supporting the surge of cold air is far to the northwest in south- central Canada. Recent GFS runs develop a strong surface low off the Carolina coast St night, but a deep cyclone is not supported by ensemble forecasts, and the main shortwave is still multiple days away from being sample over the Pacific Northwest. Thus, confidence in measurable snow and/or wintry precip is not high and likely won`t be for a couple more days. Behind this system, northwest flow looks to continue, with temps near normal early next week.
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