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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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Looks like it's still juussst a bit outside of the main eyewall.  Next hour should be interesting.



Yes if you look at the previous scan I just posted, that station is still a bit NW of the eyewall.

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Freeport is getting absolutely mauled. The NE eyewall has been stationary over it for too long.

367c3ced69042ce012cbada0b1bcb1ff.jpg

 

wxmx's Spirograph effect...while the body of the storm moved NE and the inner wall retrograded under the outer wall, it's stayed nearly stationary in real space.

 

lol I remember mine well from back in the day.

 

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8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Freeport is getting absolutely mauled. The NE eyewall has been stationary over it for too long.

367c3ced69042ce012cbada0b1bcb1ff.jpg

So sad.. I was just in pelican bay about 30 days ago. Never would have thought that one month later they will be rebuilding

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23z (7 pm EDT) max wind gust on land in FL ... 45 mph at West Palm Beach 

this hour has remained steady-state for most locations, expecting some increases at the next hour though. 

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Tropical noob question. Is the North East or North West quadrant the most likely place for tornado development? Or is it one of the South quadrants ?

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1 minute ago, knitwx said:

Tropical noob question. Is the North East or North West quadrant the most likely place for tornado development? Or is it one of the South quadrants ?

Believe it depends on the motion of the storm. The right side relative to the motion I believe has the best tornado odds. Have also heard RFQ for best chance at tornadoes. There will definitely be tornado risk but highest risk could remain offshore. 

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8 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

18Z HWRF actually comes ashore in Southern South Carolina - goes back out to sea but it is a legit landfall and time of center entirely over land. 

Worse case senario, storm hugs the coast just far enough not to weaken but close enough to get the RMW on land.  Everyone below the NC/SC border gets 100mph winds. Not that I believe it.

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I asked this before but it got lost in the avalanche of recon reports earlier.

Given the relative proximity of Matthew and Nicole, what effects can we expect from a Fujiwara interaction, on both the currently modeled track and the loop scenario as depicted by the EURO?

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6 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said:

I asked this before but it got lost in the avalanche of recon reports earlier.

Given the relative proximity of Matthew and Nicole, what effects can we expect from a Fujiwara interaction, on both the currently modeled track and the loop scenario as depicted by the EURO?

Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other.

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8 PM Advisory 130/939

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW OVER THE WESTERN
END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 78.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES

 

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2 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other.

The NHC forecast around hour 96 has then ~750 Miles out

 

5 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Probably none, as all the reliable models keep them at a good distance from each other.

I had looked earlier and at the 120HR mark, the storms appeared to be at the same latitude with a longitudinal separation of 9 degrees, which yields ~ 560 mile separation.  From what I reviewed earlier it said interactions for tropical system begin at ~900 miles out.

Haven't seen the later models, guessing they are showing more separation now?

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

18Z HWRF actually comes ashore in Southern South Carolina - goes back out to sea but it is a legit landfall and time of center entirely over land. 

is this model legit or just noise.

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

is this model legit or just noise.

Legit usually for a developed system... Struggles with undeveloped systems. 

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2 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

It is a legitimate model, unlike, say the NAM. 

thanks. My bother lives in Mt pleasant, SC (charleston area) and they are not taking the storm very serious etc.

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Just now, Animal said:

thanks. My bother lives in Mt pleasant, SC (charleston area) and they are not taking the storm very serious etc.

There actually are more GFS ensemble members (4-5) with a SC landfall than there are for a FL landfall.

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Just now, Animal said:

thanks. My bother lives in Mt pleasant, SC (charleston area) and they are not taking the storm very serious etc.

Well better yet I have family that lives in St Augustine and they decided to only move 10 miles inland.... 

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18 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said:

The NHC forecast around hour 96 has then ~750 Miles out

 

I had looked earlier and at the 120HR mark, the storms appeared to be at the same latitude with a longitudinal separation of 9 degrees, which yields ~ 560 mile separation.  From what I reviewed earlier it said interactions for tropical system begin at ~900 miles out.

Haven't seen the later models, guessing they are showing more separation now?

 

 

The models have them relatively weak, so the low pressure fields never interact with each other....I would probably look to having them <300 miles between each other to expect some interaction.

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Yeah, I'm not too sure the outer wall is still an outer wall.  There's no longer real subsidence going on between the two eyewalls and its instead filling in with rain.  If the outer wall does indeed breakdown, then the inner wall could gain strength.

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