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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....

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Just to clarify, you won't see updates from Settlement Point (the place being discussed above) every 10 minutes, but once an hour, usually about 10-15 mins after top of the hour. The 10 min updates are in the hourly reports (look down the page). A new hourly and the previous six 10 minute reports should be on line soon. (for 22z). The hourly report is (edit) top of the hour (offshore buoys are often 10 mins to the hour) and then you see the six earlier 10-min reports, e.g. the 22z report will also have 2110z to 2150z. 

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Eye looks about 3/4 closed now with thunderstorms. ADT now stopped dropping. Satcon is now rising also. Structure could be setting up for RI right before landfall. 

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Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....


It's probably opposite.....the long haul they want excuses to raise rates.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....

Been out of the loop all day - what solution is this? Anything that keeps us out of the storm?

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4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Man, Cheesenado is going to take the biggest message board victory lap if the 18z GFS verifies. In all seriousness, it shows how the steep angle of approach makes landfall forecasting almost impossible. Needless to say, the insurance companies are rooting pretty hard for that solution ....

I don't think he called for the eye to stay offshore, but I think too it's more likely than not at this point. We'll see how long the wobbles west last, if it turns more NW again, landfall is definitely back on the table. I agree it's way too soon to say all clear. 

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I think everyone needs to stop focusing so much at this point on if it will actually landfall or not. It is just such a narrow margin, and just about every model is in its margin of error, that we obviously won't know if it happens until it happens. 

Obviously hoping for the best that it misses even 20-30 miles offshore, but there is a lot of bickering making the thread tough to read.

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1 minute ago, pcbjr said:

Been out of the loop all day - what solution is this? Anything that keeps us out of the storm?

It will be bad regardless, but won't really be destructive unless the eye wall comes ashore.  If the eye stays 40 miles or so offshore, the effects won't be that horrendous. Anything above cat 1 would be in the eye wall. 

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last few frames definitely show an almost due westward movement.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.AMX.N0Q.20161006.2142.024ani.gif

Wow, It's been doing that for a few frames too. What is the steering force pushing it back to the North? Sorry for being a noob. 

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5 minutes ago, Thesolmachine said:

Wow, It's been doing that for a few frames too. What is the steering force pushing it back to the North? Sorry for being a noob. 

Follow the outer eyewall for a more real system motion.

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These hour by hour jogs are standard operating procedure for intense canes moving through island chains, or even over open ocean, what would be more significant would be sustained jogs over 3-6 hours. I would not focus too much on the westward jog, you can be almost 100% certain a northwest motion will resume very soon. Grand Bahama Island may be the reason for the jog in terms of disrupting the circulation very slightly. 

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i would stick with higher res models if you're going to use models at all at this point (euro, rgem, hrrr, even the 4k nam).  i am not sure how the gfs could be onto something simply by offering it as a solution.  the degrees to how far and where the center touches the shoreline vary, but the suite of high res and better performing (euro) models all bring a portion of the eye onshore.  to say it's too soon to say "all clear" is an oddly worded statement.  we are still much closer to coastal disaster than anything approaching "all clear."

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Unless Matthew is screaming up the coast, it won't travel in a perfectly straight line paralleling the coast.... thus even if the models never make landfall, the trochoidal wobbles, will certainly increase the chances of multiple landfalls if indeed Matthew rides just offshore by 20 or 30 miles...

Nevertheless I think the East Coast of Florida from Melbourne northward will periodically at least be in the western eye wall...

... and that is not even mentioning the often difficult to model land interaction of a core so close to land....

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IEW convection notably weaker on radar. Pressure is up 3mb on last pass. Looks like it is losing the fight pretty quickly now. Sat shows the eye clouding back over as well (after briefly clearing out). I think the OEW will begin to take over. Hard to know how long that'll take, but there's unfortunately enough time for him to complete the ERC before land interaction. (Also, this wobble west of the OEW is going to put him back on track with the offc. forecast -- this is why you don't "ruler" wobbling hurricanes).

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Pressure fall about 9 mbs past hour at that wind tower (it's not actually a buoy, it's on land at the entrance to West End harbor, pretty much at the northwest tip of Grand Bahama Island). 

Also available in that report, 20m winds (72 knots) and peak gust of previous hour at the primary 10m height (in this case 85 knots). 

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Just now, csnavywx said:

IEW convection notably weaker on radar. Pressure is up 3mb on last pass. Looks like it is losing the fight pretty quickly now. Sat shows the eye clouding back over as well (after briefly clearing out). I think the OEW will begin to take over. Hard to know how long that'll take, but there's unfortunately enough time for him to complete the ERC before land interaction. (Also, this wobble west of the OEW is going to put him back on track with the offc. forecast -- this is why you don't "ruler" wobbling hurricanes).

The outer eyewall is much larger in size. Wouldn't the ERC put it closer to land? The OEW looks pretty close to me. 

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AMX-N0Q-1-24

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LEK makes a very important point that outside readers (emergency management interests for example) should note -- the cane will not just move along steady-state along a smooth path, there will be wobbles and rotations of eyewall features, what is true at one point may not be the case fifty miles north. Hence this becomes a nowcast situation even more. 

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5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

935mb on the most recent recon pass.

Extrapolated. Dropsonde has been 2 or 3 mb higher.

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One of the coolest features of the near shore-parallel approach angle is getting all this great radar data on a ERC.  Plus / minus on number of graduate theses that use this data?

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Guy on CNN just saw a tornado spun off from the outerbands... Crazy. I will say, while the inner core of this storm has been small, it has a large circulation.

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1 minute ago, wxmx said:

113 kts surface winds from dropsonde during this last pass.

129kt at 935mb.. Which is only 9mb up from the surface on that dropsonde.

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